The Twins do just enough to irritate the malcontents

If you ever want to ruin your day, go ahead and look at Facebook comments on any post from your favorite public entities. I think it is a society wide problem nowadays, but if it isn't then it is certainly a problem for the Twins on Facebook.

The Twins aren't the only team that has been quiet so far this offseason. The Cubs may have done even less than the Twins, but at least they haven't come out to say that they are cutting payroll immediately after their most successful postseason in nearly 20 years. This has led to a raw edge for long suffering and increasingly disaffected fans.

So the Twins have made three moves in the last few weeks. All of them are perfectly reasonable, but not splashy moves, and definitely not the defining moves of an offseason for any team. The limited movement means there is a spotlight shined on the individual moves that have been made, and some fans are giving them weight than they probably will in the long run.

The Twins signed old friend Niko Goodrum and pitcher AJ Alexey to minor league deals, which means the major league deal signed by Josh Staumont is the biggest move of the offseason. Compared to the players they have lost, Staumont obviously pales in comparison. Without the flurry of activity, these negative Nellies think signing Staumont is a bad signing, which it is not.

If the Twins don't do anything else, it is a bad offseason, as they won't have achieved any of the goals they set out to achieve, but a flier on Staumont, a hard throwing reliever who has always dominated the Twins and, if healthy would be a boost to the 'pen. Same with Alexey, who is cheaper, but doesn't have the track record. Goodrum will bring some competition to the middle infield, or depth in St. Paul if no roster moves come to fruition.

It's been a quiet offseason so far, which magnifies the moves that have been made. The chorus has exclaimed that the Twins haven't done enough, which is obviously true. We also need to remember that we are only at the halfway point of the offseason. Let's wait until spring, and maybe even until after a TV deal is in place, before we come to a verdict on the offseason, and let's not get too worked up over these minor moves.  

Like the olden days

My first foray into the Twins online community was from a link on ESPN's Page 2, which brought me to a post on the Bat-Girl blog. Bat-Girl was the pseudonym of Twin Cities author Anne Ursu, and it was brilliant. Not only did it introduce a vital bit of humor to my baseball consumption, it also introduced me to the growing space of independent writers, especially sports writers, who were just starting the nascent blogosphere.

I got to know more and more writers, and became familiar with a lot of national writers, and as many of them moved to Twitter, I followed them. As Google Reader disappeared, Twitter became my clearinghouse for news, updated in about as real time as possible. It was easy to stay updated on the headlines of the day, and see a quip about those headlines just as quickly. If you knew where to go, and you were on TweetDeck, Twitter was great.

And then it wasn't. Regardless of your opinion of the current owner of the platform and the controversies surrounding him, Twitter, or really any social media platform, are only as valuable as the user base on those sites, and when Elon Musk bought it, and after his subsequent changes, the number of users started to deteriorate, and the functionality for the price diminished. 

Given the staffing cuts, and the grandeur of the scandals surrounding Musk and Twitter, the site is never going to be the same. I still automatically post these posts, as well as those from my other two sites, but I'm not on there any more, just scouring for news or posting my own hot takes. I have dipped my toe literally everywhere else though. Post.news is great for news, but doesn't have a "sports" section yet, and the user base is small. Mastadon is probably my favorite right now because of the automatic refresh, but is difficult to get started, and the users I follow are essentially mirrored from Twitter, and I worry what happens when that goes away. Threads will likely be the choice of corporate feeds, while Blue Sky will be the choice for individuals. (I'm @rhinoandcompass on all 4).

The point, though, is that if I want news, or a specific kind of content, I have to start hunting for it again. I need to start going to my favorite Twins sites again for news and analysis, rather than waiting for it to scroll across my timeline. I need to refresh MLB Trade Rumors awaiting updates, or wait for an alert on my phone after everything is buttoned up 5 hours later. It's like it's 2004 all over again. 

Right down to the false hope that eventually, my refreshing would pay off, and I would find out the Twins actually DID something. 

Trade partners and trade targets aren't lining up

 Back in the days of my youth, before a wife, before kids, and frankly, before I was reasonable, I liked to put together offseason plans and suggest trades and basically pretend I was smarter than I am. Now, with less time and the realization that modern day GMs are invested in statistics and have the advantage of professional scouts, I don't really add much to the conversation, if I ever did. Still, it was fun, and I liked doing it. Since there is an utter lack of headlines out there, and I have a rare bit of time on my hands, I thought I would go for it.

There are two major themes to all of Minnesota's offseason goals. They need to manage their payroll in the wake of their absent TV deal, and they also would like to add an elite starting pitcher to replace the loss of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. The obvious means in which to whittle away at their payroll is to offload replaceable players that have larger salaries. The best way to get an inexpensive, controllable starting pitcher on the trade market is to trade prospects to teams whose window is no longer open.

Jorge Polanco is the clear choice to be included in a trade that reduces payroll. He's a good offensive player, particularly for a second baseman, who has tread left on his tires and a not outrageous contract on the verge of expiration. Edouard Julien has already usurped the role, and if he falls flat in year two, Nick Gordon, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee or even Royce Lewis are options to man the keystone. Teams are not often as blessed for depth as the Twins are in the middle infield, and Polanco has been in demand elsewhere.

Polanco, then, is eminently tradeable. He has value on the market, and the Twins would like to get his payroll off the book. Unfortunately, teams like the Mariners or Blue Jays who have reportedly been interested in his services, don't really need to feel compelled to trade away one of those controllable starting pitchers the Twins so clearly desire and need. 

What I am trying to say is, this sounds like a good time for a multi-team trade! The Blue Jays and Twins have matched up before in a major trade, so there is a line of dialogue there. In this scenario, they work together to bring Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to Minnesota for a year. It's a pretty easy deal when discussing the return for the Twins and Blue Jays. Twins get Burnes, Blue Jays get Polanco. The Brewers, in turn, get 5 players. 

The Blue Jays would deliver veteran middle infielder Cavan Biggio and pitching prospect Brandon Barriera (#4 in the Blue Jays organization) while the Twins would pass along minor league infielder Tanner Schobel and pitchers David Festa and Connor Prielipp (7, 9, 6, respectively) to soften the blow for Milwaukee. This would give the Brewers three pitching prospects to replace Burnes (and Brandon Woodruff, also likely not to pitch for the Brewers again. 

Additionally, Milwaukee will prepare for the possible departure of Willy Adames, their shortstop who is as likely as Burnes to be traded this offseason by adding Biggio for a couple of years of stability, and Schobel as an option to replace Adames somewhere down the road. 

As is my constant and universal disclaimer, I don't know anything, and I can't get inside organizations to fully understand their player valuations, but the takeaway is that to attain the goals the Twins are trying to achieve, it's going to be complicated. 

Water under the bridge

 The state of Minnesota is on the precipice of having a new flag, having just today narrowed their option to one, and now, they will make slight modifications and aesthetic choices before the new flag is placed into permanent use at the beginning of the year. Despite the fact that many people have some negative opinions about the flag, (I think some of the options look too much like Sierra Leone's flag, for example).

It reminds me that about this time last year, the Twins were getting ready to role out their new rebrand. When it came out there was a generally positive opinion of the new look, but the new M logo was derided because some people thought it looked too much like the Marlins' M. It's one letter, and there are only so many typography options, so I wasn't bothered by it and now, a year later, it's not really top of mind anymore. 

What strikes me about the jersey update reflects on a message I have been sending as often as I post. You see, at the reveal, Luis Arraez was a prominent feature of the launch, while there were headlines about the players remaining in communication with Carlos Correa, who hadn't yet made his decision yet. His first decision.

After the reveal, the Twins got busy, eventually signing Correa, making the Arraez-Pedro Lopez deal, trading for Michael A Taylor and signing Donovan Solano. There was a lot of work left to be done, and most of it came after the new year. In fact, the only early maneuvering the Twins did were the trade of Gio Urshela and the trade for Kyle Farmer.

The off season is moving at a snails pace in Minnesota, I agree. But there i still plenty of winter to go. The Twins haven't settled their TV arrangement and take their time to begin with. Come next year, we'll be used to the Twins uniforms, the state's new flag, and take the spring changes to the roster for granted. Maybe next offseason, we'll be reviewing the new flag patch on the Twins' 

The Twins aren't playing to their field.

 Something that has always bothered me about Target Field is that when it was built, there was a core middle to the lineup that happened to all be left handed. There was Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel, all ready to bash at the new park, and the stadium was designed with an extra tall limestone fence in right field. Sure, sure, make it a little bit harder for the core of your lineup to hit them out. 

You could logically retort that the Twins weren't building the stadium with those players in mind specifically, which of course is true, but they did likely expect to have those players around for a while (before they were all derailed by their own injuries) which could have accounted for the first, I don't know, 20% of the stadium's lifespan, perhaps. 

But then the Twins added Jim Thome, and developed Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario. Jorge Polanco is a switch hitter, and now they have a bumper crop of left handed players ready to take over; Alex Kirlloff, Matt Wallner and  Trevor Larnach. Even the top two outfield prospects, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, are left handed.

The list of right handed hitters that have sustained success with the Twins is shorter. Nelson Cruz was great. Brian Dozier burned bright for a few years, but otherwise, the right handed bats have been inconsistent or failed to achieve the success that many expected. The first righty the Twins added for their bat was Delmon Young, followed by Josh Willingham. They developed Miguel Sano who could also be very good, but more often was not. Josh Donaldson didn't last. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are the preeminent righties right now, and have battled injury and slow starts through their time here. There is a lot of pressure on Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, I guess, to fill in the right handed hitter role.

The left field fence is 10 feet deeper than the right field fence, but it is less than half as tall. Especially when a fly ball carries in a hot summer day, each fence is likely as capable of giving up home runs as the other, but when it is cold, or when the the hitter is prone to line drives (like Mauer) a driven ball is more likely to leave the park in left. 

Given that Minnesota is usually pretty chilly early in the season and into the postseason, solid right handed hitting would take advantage of the dimensions of Target Field. through intent or misfortune, the team hasn't really made a point of getting consistent production from that side of the plate. 

The outfield is a place to stash your best bats, and the Twins haven't used it for a dominant right handed hitter, and don't seem like they are likely to do that for a while, given the prospect pool. They continue to try to work Buxton into the lineup, and had Michael A. Taylor in center last year, more for his glove, but attained unexpected pop at the plate. If Buxton is back, a decent right handed hitter can slot in as a designated hitter. For the past few years, that righty has been Kyle Garlick. There is room to grow.

The Twins have been pretty quiet this offseason, and have limited payroll opportunities, but adding just one right handed corner outfielder with some more ability than Garlick would be a lift for the lineup at a relatively low price, and would address something that has been a hole for what seems like more than a decade. 

The Twins at the Winter Meetings

via GIPHY

The Winter Meetings have been slow in getting started this year. In the last stanza of the meetings, things have started really moving, and with Juan Soto likely off the board, one has to speculate on whether the trade market is about to open up soon. Free agency, however, has one, big Shohei Ohtani shaped block before the market opens up.

As Dan Hayes from the Athletic noted earlier, and I anticipated, the Twins never really expected to be active during the meetings, because it suits their methodology. They prefer to wait out the market and then pounce. It seems like the current regime hasn't made a move before mid-January in any of their previous iterations. 

Still, the silence was stark. Nearly every team started making minor league deals for roster depth, or finding some bullpen options, even if those players weren't going to be primary options for the opening day roster. But the Twins didn't even do that, which is, as I said, stark. They even passed on the Rule 5 draft.

There is some relief in knowing that this was part of the plan all along, though. Before the winter meetings, Derek Falvey told us to expect quiet, but this was even quieter than I could have anticipated. This seems to suggest that they are going to hope to buy low through all phases of their roster, right down to those non roster invites.

Like I said, in the past, the Twins have been slow to get started in the offseason, but there is the added element of financial constraint. They may be waiting to know exactly how much money they have to spend until a TV contract is solidified. I think it's probably more of the former than the latter, since there was no activity, even with minor league contracts. 

Regardless of the reason,  the Twins will await a point in the offseason where they won't have to get into a bidding war with other organizations, and can try to get real major league talent to bolster their system depth, after that major league talent fails to get a contract earlier in the offseason.

Trades are inevitable, and the Twins are good at staying out of the rumor mill, so we probably won't see it coming. With the absolute silence at the Winter Meetings, we will have even less of an idea what a trade might look like, because we have even less insight into the plan than usual. I guess we can look forward to an even more wild January than we've even seen in the past. 

Expectations are raised, but not alarms

 There is but one commodity that is flying off of the Free agency shelves: former Twins pitchers. The Cardinals alone have signed Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray, while Kenta Maeda joined the Detroit Tigers. Even since this morning, Emilio Pagan signed with the Reds. Gray, Maeda and Pagan, of course, were part of the team last year, playing important roles in the regular season and into the playoffs. Gray and Maeda also were runners up in the Cy Young race at one point in their time in Minnesota.

There is an immediate level of concern for many fans, who have memories of the Twins playing at the lowest end of the free agency market, and losing out on two good pitchers is a tough pill to swallow. Additionally all of the reports of a payroll slimdown on it's way lead all of us to assume the worst. 

Before we are consumed by despair, let's instead give credit to the Twins organization for their ability to get the most out of the three pitchers they are losing off the roster this season. Then, take solace in the fact that all of the players they are losing are agedd 33 or older. Maeda has sustained more than one serious elbow injury in his career. It is ok that the Twins have not spent the money, even if it wasn't limited, on three old pitchers. Remember, any money spent would be on their future performance, and not a guarantee of continued success.

It's also worth noting that the three pitchers in question were acquired via trade. Every pitcher expected to be in the rotation as it stands right now is a draftee or trade acquisition. Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar are the only members of the bullpen that were acquired as free agents. It's hard for me to get worked up anymore about free agents, particularly pitchers, when they don't sign with the Twins. There has been enough success without them.

That said, given the past year, the historic desire to have an ace pitcher, which has been the desire every offseason since Johan Santana left, has been updated. Now that members of Twins Territory have become accustomed to a quality rotation, fans want a second top tier starter to join Pablo Lopez atop the rotation. 

The Twins are now playoff winners, and the expectation have raised with it. I'm not panicked about the Twins not signing any of their pitching free agents, but I, like everyone, now expect the Twins to come away from the winter with a good rotation. 

Joe Mauer should be a Hall of Famer

By almost every metric, Joe Mauer is an easy selection for the Hall of Fame, but there is a tranche of pundits and even Minnesota fans that believe his is a borderline case because he didn't hit enough home runs, or wasn't a part of a successful postseason team, or played a position other than catcher for 5 tears after his career altering brain injury.

The only reason that there should be a delay on Mauer's entry, not even if there was a question about his qualificiations, would be if this was already expected to be a big class, and there just weren't enough votes to go around. Aside from Mauer, Adrian Beltre and Todd Helton look like they will get in this year, but it isn't a bumper crop of super stars on the ballot.

Jay Jaffe is something of a Hall of Fame mathematician. He created the "JAWS" metric, which evaluates a player's WAR over their 7 year peak and over their career. Among catchers, Joe Mauer is 7th all time in the JAWS metric. For the concerns about an underwhelming peak or a short career, his JAWS is higher than the average hall of fame catcher, and is the only one in the top 11 that is not in the hall of fame.

Breaking it down by the components, Mauer is 5th in the all time peak measurement and 9th in career WAR, both higher than the average hall of famer.

Another very good catcher is going to be on the ballot in a few years, and is seen sa a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. Yadier Molina, is undoubtedly a Hall of Fame catcher on his own merits. Some people use Molina's defensive prowess (Mauer has 3 gold gloves) or his rings (Why isn't Jorge Posada in?) or his durability (Where is Benito Santiago?). Like I said, Molina deserves entry on his own merits and I don't mean to denigrate him, but rather say that the reasons for Molina's entry shouldn't be the reasons you say Mauer shouldn't be in.

Joe Mauer was one of the best hitters in the games for about 5 years (3 batting titles!), and was one of the best catchers to ever play the game. The opinion seems to be that he isn't a shoo-in to be in the Hall of Fame, but really, he should be getting elected this winter. 

Vocal skill beyond genre

 If you haven't been here to listen to my foundational opinions on music in the past, well, here it is. Don't let anyone make you feel bad for liking what you like (unless it's like "I like so and so because they hate [insert group). You can like lyrics, or tempo or emotion or whatever, and all of it hits all of us differently. Our taste in music comes from our background and our own individual tastes, and just because I don't like something doesn't mean either of us are better than the other. To assert otherwise makes you a dick.

With that said, I don't like country music. It doesn't sound right to my ear, and reminds me of my teenage job where I worked in a local hardware store with backwards, racist coworkers. The lyrics are a little too saccharine, and the instrumentation just isn't my favorite. 

Ever since "southern rock" was christened, though, there has been crossover, so I am not entirely unfamiliar with the most famous country stars. There are two different types of those stars. There are the country stars that make pop songs or made a couple of pop songs, like Taylor Swift, Chris Stapleton or Maren Morris, but then there are people who have made their own music that just became popular, like Luke Combs, Morgan Wallen or Carrie Underwood. 

In some cases, I am impressed. I think Stapleton, for example, has a unique voice that he has used well in his cross over work. I respect Combs' choice of songs to remake, and he has a soft spot with me for how beloved he is in his home town of Boone, North Carolina. People wouldn't stop talking about him when I visited last year. 

There is one artist who has popped up on the pop stations a couple of times, who embodies everything that country music can be when it is beautiful. Whenever Kacey Musgraves has emerged from the country station and found a spot in the mainstream, I'm always struck by her ability to make a beautiful song. 

Her voice lends itself to the plaintive, empathetic and hurt reflected in the songs that she makes. I'm not even here to tell you that Rainbow or I Remember Everything (if you can get past Zach Bryan) are the perfect songs or anything, but that for the message - which is very different - in both of the songs, Musgrave's vocalizations are perfectly suited. 

I can appreciate people when they master their art, even if it isn't a medium I typically enjoy. Lyrics don't grab me as much as vocalization does, and Kacey Musgraves has proven to have that skill mastered. 

The Twins need to decide how deep to cut.

 I think that the Twins have a bit of a window of grace right now. They finally won a bit in the post season, but are now being confronted by the realities of the shifting landscape of sports media. They have no TV contract, and are the first team to need to try to figure out their value on the open market since Diamond Sports has started it's collapse. People recognize this, and understand the challenges. 

Really, though, what kind of leash do you think that will buy the team? After Sonny Gray signs elsewhere, and the Twins have traded off Jorge Polanco, do you think Twins fans will have all that much patience for whatever cuts the organization deems necessary? I sure don't. 

The team needs eyeballs on the game to sell their product, and with the TV rates likely to be harder to come by, they will need fans in the stands next season. At some point, the Twins will need to wonder where the value of saving a couple of bucks is worth aggravating fans even more. Sure, winning sells tickets, but this market has seen good fortune dry up abruptly in the past, and will be wary of a sell off, even if the team is still well positioned to start the season.

What I am saying, in my own convoluted manner, is if it is worth jettisoning popular utility players at a fairly marginal reduction in payroll, or for a marginal increase in talent? Kyle Farmer is making a pretty good chunk of change next season, but on the other hand, he was the first player to defy the Minnesota Curse (saying the Twins would win in the post season) and be right about it. Do you want to tempt fate like that?

More seriously, Nick Gordon won't be in line to make as much money. He had a rough start in 2023 and saw his season end early due to injury. He offers positional flexibility, and his bat had come around 2022. For a league minimum salary, he seems like a guy worth keeping around, especially if Farmer is relocated. 

Undoubtedly, there are players in St. Paul that are pounding on the door, ready to come to big league squad, like Austin Martin, who would share some of the same tools as Gordon, but there shouldn't be a rush to get Martin to the Majors to start the year, and injuries will definitely arise as the season progresses. There is plenty of time to get Martin to town. 

On the other hand, the veteran depth looks to be limited next season, thanks to that payroll trim. Even as a pre-arbitration player, Gordon adds some of the leadership structure to the organization, even if as a cheerleader. That said, he has been a long time member of the organization, and is only a year younger than Carlos Correa. Calling Gordon a veteran isn't absurd. 

I'm not saying that Gordon should be the starting second baseman or anything wild like that. I'm saying that if the team is trying to cut payroll while remaining competitive, maybe keeping Gordon can satisfy both of those issues, and continue to be a well liked figure in the organization. 

All right, now let's talk about free agents.

There is quite a bit of valid consternation about the Twins payroll for the 2024 season. The Twins are presently without a television contract, and the network that has typically been available to air games locally is not going to be an option anymore, thanks to the collapse of the regional sports network infrastructure. 

Then, there were the statements by Derek Falvey, in which he stated that the payroll would be lower this year. We don't have any hard figures, but even if there is a significant drop in the payroll, some important players are under contract, while other important players are still on their rookie deals. There is room for free agency, is what I am saying, and the Twins are usually active in scouring the market.

Let's look at the breakdown that was provided by MLBTradeRumors, as well as the picks for free agents three of their writers suspected would fit in Minnesota. The comprehensive list is below.
SP Marcus Stroman
SP Kenta Maeda
1b Rhys Hoskins
RP Reynaldo Lopez
OF Harrison Bader
RP Hector Neris

I think we can dismiss some of these out of hand. First, they don't like to overextend for starting pitchers unless they are already very comfortable with them. That eliminates Stroman. They also are loathe to commit multi year contracts to relief pitchers, which takes care of Lopez and Neris. Hoskins is one of the top bat first free agents out there. He suffered a torn ACL last spring, but that shouldn't deter teams in need of a bat. The Twins aren't likely to get into a bidding war at the top of the market this offseason.

That leaves Kenta Maeda and Harrison Bader, which seems like a reasonable expectation for how active the Twins are in free agency this year. If you use the MLBTR estimates, that would be 28m in free agent salary, which seems extremely reasonable based on the estimated salaries provided by Sportrac. This would lead to a $138m payroll even after the estimated arbitration decisions.

As we noted yesterday, some more of that salary is expected to be subtracted in trades of players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler or Kyle Farmer. That's $27m of salary that would be replaced by pre arbitration players like Austin Martin or Brooks Lee. There might still be a spot to bolster, like a right handed bat similar, but perhaps not as expensive as Hoskins. 

Don't be worried about the reduction in payroll. That doesn't mean that the Twins aren't going to be active this winter, and there is a very real chance they make a couple of notable signings, on top of a few expected trades. 

It makes the most sense to trade Jorge Polanco

Let me be clear, when I am a fan of a team, I become a fan of the players. Even when they struggle, as long as they seem to have a good attitude, or are otherwise unproblematic in the clubhouse, I just want them to be successful. I don't get mad at players who aren't playing well, I just hope they can do their best. Ultimately though, I understand that baseball is a business, and there is a combination of factors in all decisions, notably cost efficiency and winning games. This is all to say that I have grown attached to Jorge Polanco and wish he could stay in Minnesota forever, but that is neither cost efficient, nor is that the best way to win games.

Polanco will be making $10m on his option this year, and the Twins are in the market to see their salary reduced. Position players are at a premium on the free agent market this year, so there should be takers for Polanco, even at that salary. 

All right, admittedly, his salary isn't outrageous, however with the emergence of Edouard Julien, the near arrival of Austin Martin and the current presence of Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon, it will be easy to replace Polanco at a reduced salary. 

Instead of keeping a glut of middle infielders, the Twins can also reallocate the resources they do have and replace some of the depth in the rotation by moving Polanco. Not only will the step back by losing Polanco be marginal, the return could help bolster what was a strength in 2023, but is losing some pieces this offseason. 

For no other reason than the Google algorithm has been sending me a headline about how the Red Sox might be interested in Polanco, I pieced something together that might satisfy those needs, but also give some perspective on what a realistic trade might look like between the clubs. 

First, I entertained the thought of a trade for Alex Verdugo, who is rumored to be available, but with Max Kepler already in the "Left handed corner outfielder in a contract year" position, it didn't seem like Verdugo fit any of the Twins' needs. Instead, I found a starting pitcher whose "Trade Value" according to the site Baseball Trade Values seemed easy to make work with Polanco's.

Nick Pivetta is also in his walk year, and has pitched in the Red Sox Bullpen to some success. He's not a front line starter, but would be expected to backfill the expected loss of Kenta Maeda. Perhaps appealing to the Twins, Pivetta has seen his success increase as he has used his slider more frequently. 

While this is a move that does make sense, I can't in good faith imagine that a team would be willing to trade one year of a pitcher for one year of a second baseman, even if you did throw in a prospect like catcher Noah Cardenas. Maybe the Twins would be interested in Pivetta. Maybe the Red Sox would be interested in Polanco. I can't see them being traded for each other, but it gives you an idea what a market for Polanco could look like.

Jorge Polanco probably won't end up a Twin next season, which stinks and makes sense at the same time. Fortunately, there are going to be options for trading Polanco that will result in the Twins getting better.

We know what we're getting by now

Derek Falvey has been at the helm of the Minnesota Twins now since 2017. and at this juncture, we should be fully anticipating the course of the Twins offseason, and without a doubt, we will all become incredibly frustrated with the team's pace. 

First, we know that the Twins are more than willing to wait out the market on almost every spot on the roster, except, it seems, for catcher, if Jason Castro and Christian Vazquez are any example. If the Twins have an opening behind the plate, this leadership group has been assertive in adding the right person at that position early in the offseason. The Twins seem pretty well set behind the plate, so don't look for the Twins to jump into the free agent market.

The Twins are also very willing to add to their rotation ia trade, and are extremely prudent when it comes to adding via free agency. Michael Pineda is about the only pitcher to sign with the Twins. Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack were among the names added via trade. The tough market for pitching is fine. Falvey will make a trade if he feels the rotation isn't strong enough.

Those trades will come late, well after the free agency rush. Additionally, they will only be done to improve the rotation, though there may be some incidental supplementing of the bullpen. The bullpen won't seem like a priority, but in truth, the Twins have significantly more faith in their internal development than you do. Emilio Pagan was brilliant this year, after an offseason of Twins fans wondering why he was still here. This will only reinforce that faith, as will the knowledge that relievers are volatile, and it's tough to put enough stock in them to spend big in free agency there.

Last, even though we know the Twins are slow to start the offseason, they are often among the last to finish making moves. Donovan Solano was signed in the spring, and Michael A. Taylor was acquired in that time frame, and both were valuable contributors. Heck, the trade that brought Paddack and Pagan came the day before opening day. 

There are budget concerns headed into the season, which stem from the shifting landscape of sports on TV, but the Twins should still be able to assemble a competitive roster, especially in the AL Central. Just practice some serious patience, and don't evaluate the progress until Opening Day. 

There is nothing wrong with Dick Bremer

Dick Bremer, voice of the Twins throughout my life, was pushed out of his position as the play by play TV announcer of the Twins this season. There has been quite a bit of consternation over the move. Bremer is problem free, and unlike a lot of lifetime baseball minds, he was fully willing to learn new things and was good at conveying the value of the new statistics to the fan base. So what the heck, right?

This isn't a Hawk Harrelson situation, where Harrelson claims to have been fired, and most of the world can understand why. His homerism, while refreshing for White Sox fans, was also liable to get him in trouble, with a misguided comment towards an umpire or an opponent. It was time for the White Sox to cut bait, if not in 2018, then some time shortly thereafter.

Harrelson was pushed into retirement, while Bremer is moving to an advisory role with the Twins. While this was not Bremer's decision, this should be an indication that there isn't bad blood over the entire matter. I suspect that the move to remove Bremer from the booth is more tightly related to what will be the biggest story of the Minnesota offseason.

The Twins are between TV contracts this offseason, and really need to establish that source of revenue for the future. That future will need to be secured and stable. The Twins need to sell a similarly stable project. Bremer had been in the role for 40 years and is 67 years old. If the deal is 7 or 8 years, like national deals have been, Bremer would be in his mid 70s by the conclusion of the deal. Older if the Twins want a longer deal. Bremer was fine this year, but what about a few years from now?

The Twins don't have a problem with Bremer, nor Bremer with the Twins. Both recognize that Bremer may be ready to move on sooner rather than later, and while it wasn't yet for Bremer, the Twins needed to get ahead of the change so they can sell the media rights with a voice that will be there for the life of the deal. 

The rebuild that never got built.

 The season consisted of such a dog fight with the Guardians in the first half, and finally resulted in the squad coming together and pulling away late. The Tigers actually came out in 2nd by the end of the year, which just shows it's very hard to win games when you don't ever get around to scoring any runs, as Cleveland struggled with. 

Even the Royals, paced by Bobby Witt Jr. seemed to come alive a bit late in the year. If not alive, then at least they showed enough to get some fans to the stadium next year. It's clear they are near the beginning of a reset.

Vibes were less good in Chicago, where the White Sox were expected to compete, and potentially win the AL Central, thanks to a good rotation and an emergent core. It didn't hurt that the team finally decided to shake loose of Tony La Russa at the helm for those that saw success for Chicago in 2023. 

And then, the season was an unmitigated disaster. Despite the expectations for Chicago and Kansas City, they finished only 5 games apart in the standings. It was so bad that the White Sox are bringing La Russa back (to the front office). 

What is the most frustrating aspect of a team whose rebuild didn't work? Like I said, the White Sox had a bunch of prosects that seemed ready to make the jump. I was fearful, as a Twins fan, of the White Sox potential. They stocked up in their trades of Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana and Chris Sale, and really seemed poised to move into a golden era.

But after that promise, some of those prospects just weren't successful, like Yoan Moncada who had a bad season. Eloy Jimenez has never repeated his rookie season, and only seems to get worse in the field. Michael Kopech has never seemed to rein in his terrific stuff. Is it more frustrating that these guys aren't producing as expected?

Or is it more frustrating to watch Luis Robert explode for 38 home runs and realize the hitter he's always been capable of being? Or to have Dylan Cease become one of the top starters in the league, and know that having these two stars reaching their potential just isn't enough? Knowing that the rest of your cast of characters was too mediocre to allow your stars to execute in important moments?

The AL Central was derided for it's mediocrity this season. The Twins proved, at least, that they could compete in the post season, and the Tigers and Royals were about as expected, maybe a bit better. Cleveland wasn't able to maintain their fortune from last year, but the real problem with the division was a White Sox squad that just didn't have it. Now, though, we should know what to expect in 2024.

An uphill battle. 

Enter this offseason with some positivity

 

 Ever since the internet became a means for sports fans to connect, the Twins have been an increasingly aggravating source of dismay and discord. The long post season losing streak shortly after the team was threatened with contraction because of penny pinching ownership certainly encouraged these bad vibes. But look at that video up above. Those are some good vibes, right? That is one happy stadium with a very happy team entertaining them. 

Despite the bellyaching of the last, oh, 20 years, it was THIS manger and THIS front office that put the team over the top. That's good! They did good! The results are the best they've been in a very long time. That's why the Red sox were taking a look at Thad Levine to run their front office. Despite everything that will happen, and the grousing that will inevitably come up, remember that we aren't in a long term drought anymore.

And surely, there are a lot  of question marks. How will the Twins retain a top starting rotation? Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are free agents after this season. I think even the Twins are surprised by how good Gray was this season, which makes him more difficult to replace. The late spurt from Chris Paddack this past season gives hope that he will command a rotation spot as a reliable contributor in 2024. Bailey Ober came on for Tyler Mahle early in the season this past year and will be a rotation regular. The greatest concern will be depth, I think, which Minnesota was able to leverage in 2023 with Ober and Maeda, but the margins will be thinner next season without some additions. There aren't many names available at the top of the market, so picking at the edges might be the best idea anyhow. 

The pitching is a bit less of a concern if the Twins are hitting. The Twins are hitting if they are healthy on offense. For the second year in a row, the team was significantly impacted by injuries. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis in full health for the full season would be terrific. If Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler are around again in the next campaign, having them all season would be helpful as well.

The option decision may be waiting on some payroll decision making. This time, the decision my hinge on where their TV revenue comes from. rather than the general cheapness of ownership. The Twins had a TV deal with Diamond Sports Group, to air games on Bally Sports North. DSG has gone belly up, and with more and more people cutting out cable, there is no easily identified TV partner, nor is there the revenue guarantee that partnership would assure. The Twins might want to patch their holes, they might even identify some good ways to do ot, but the money in this shifting landscape might just not be there. 

But look at that video. Even with all the headwinds of the winter, we still have the tailwinds leftover from the fall.  

North Dakota State, the quarterback factory

Carson Wentz had a good start, but is likely a wash in the NFL. He sustained an injury with the Eagles, who then went on to win the Super Bowl with his back up. Wentz was ultimately traded to Indianapolis, where he struggled, then he was dumped on Washington, and now, he is jobless. 

Trey Lance was injured in his first real chance to be the starting quarterback, and never had the chance to win back his spot. Brock Purdy certainly earned his spot as a starter, but it isn't a great reflection of the 49ers draft process that their top 5 selection couldn't stick at quarterback. Lance was just traded to the Cowboys, where he backs up Dak Prescott.

As you may know, one thing that they have in common is their alma mater; North Dakota State. They also have another important thing in common; a major, career derailing injury. Wentz was pretty good before his initial injury, and Lance never really had a chance to prove himself. Do we know if the Bison only send out busts? 

One thing that the Bison did under the tenure of both Lance and Wentz was protect the blind side of the quarterback. The jerseys were kept clean for both quarterbacks while they played in the FargoDome. In both drafts that the saw an NDSU quarterback selected in the first round, a starting tackle from the Bison was also selected. Joe Haeg moved to the interior line, but had a 6 year career starting with the Colts and bouncing around. Dillon Radunz was a second round choice by the Titans to protect Ryan Tannehill. 

This is an ultimate truth not just for for the North Dakota State Bison, but for the National Football League. The best way to get the most out of a quarterback is to make sure they stay healthy. 

The culmination of a season's storylines arrives in Game 1

The course of the season, as always, results in either a postseason appearance or missing that opportunity. Much of what transpired during the season is evident based on what is seen on the field. Players that emerged during the season are in prominent spots on the roster, significant injuries mean certain players are left off. No doubt, that shows up in the Twins' roster as they take on Toronto. 

The Twins have seen three rookies make their mark on the team this season in Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, and all three figure to be important players in the postseason for Minnesota. There were injuries to all of the most important position players this season. Carlos Correa and Lewis are going to tough out some nagging injuries. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler have rebounded to have strong second halves of their season. Byron Buxton never was right, and finds himself sidelined. 

The biggest story in baseball over the offseason was the Carlos Correa saga. I didn't give it enough attention here when it happened, but holy smokes, what a journey that was. He ended up back in Minnesota. He's a notoriously tenacious performer in October, and now, in the first season of his new contract, he will get a chance to show that again, even after a season where he struggled. 

A little bit of every Minnesotan, I think, assumed that Correa would struggle. This is Minnesota, where big money players tend to be snakebitten. Loke at Joe Mauer, or even Buxton for proof. Correa returning wasn't as big a deal in Minnesota as it was outside of Minnesota because of Minnesota fan existential dread, in part, but also because not long after. the biggest story for Minnesotans broke.

Luis Arraez was traded to Miami for a package of players headlined by Pablo Lopez. Minnesota got off to a terrible start offensively this year, and Lopez didn't get results that fit his peripherals for a few months, and initially, the move was derided. It was hard to see the personable Arraez go. I won't relitigate the trade, but I will note that the Twins got Lopez with the intent to make him even better than he was in Miami.

Consider that a success, then. He was an All Star this season, and finished with a career high in strikeouts. Lopez was generally a reliable presence in the rotation. His strikeout rate was up, his walk rate was down, and the problems he had with production were the result of a BABIP that was about 20 points higher than his career, or the league average. Lopez has become a better version of himself in Minnesota, and as a result, he's starting Game 1 in the playoffs.

Pitching, pitching, pitching. It's all anyone has talked about this season, the season before, and every season since Johan Santana, Brad Radke and Carlos Silva were around. Now, the Twins have figured it out. That other nagging concern -- the bullpen -- has even come together, though that will need to be proven over the next several weeks. 

Everything Twins fans and observers have discussed all season is going to be front and center. Lately, these discussions have been overwhelmingly positive. Let's hope that trend continues into October. 

The shattered confidence that comes with a Twins postseason.

The Twins are heading to the post season with their offense finally starting to come around. I mean more than just these last couple of games against Oakland and Colorado. The last few months have seen rookies like Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner take an outsized role on the team, while the return of Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have also added some life to the roster. 

This is a situation where the narrative fits the season better than the stats. Just look at the team leaders for the year. Right now, they are without RBI team leader Carlos Correa, and his 65 runs batted in. The 2nd highest home run total belongs to Joey Gallo, also on the shelf. Both of these things can be true, and it is also true that these players have also disappointed their fans.

The value of counting stats notwithstanding, 65RBI and 21 home runs are both terrifically low figures for an RBI team leader and a #2 in home runs for a playoff team. In this case, it shows a couple of things. One, Correa is one of the ew consistent every day presences in the lineup, and two, the Twins roster effectively pivoted to the fresh faces after the halfway point in the season.

The rate stats for players that are going to be on the roster headed into the post season are strong. With one of the best rotations the team has ever had, the vibes have been very good through September. There was n element of confidence, and a feeling that the Minnesota Twins might actually make some noise in the postseason.

I was at the game when the Twins clinched, and there was a feeling of euphoria, right up until Kyle Farmer declared that the Twins were definitely going to win a game in the playoffs this year. That's when all the stats that really matter came back to haunt us.

0-18.

No playoff wins for 19 years.

1 very real curse. 

The good news is, there isn't likely to be an outcome that is more embarrassing than our expectations. 

On to October

 

It's been a rocky road, but ultimately, the Twins did it. They are AL Central champs. Now to win a playoff game.

Digging a little deeper, finding out the whole story

Emilio Pagan has a reputation that is hard to shake here in Minnesota. He had a tough year last year, one that was so rough that it's hard to look past in order to see how good he has been this year. There is more to it than performance, I believe. Taylor Rogers, the closer that was dealt to the Padres as part of the deal was fairly popular. Pagan already had a bit of a hill to climb to get into the good graces of Twins fans, and his performances against Cleveland didn't help.

A cursory look at Pagan showed he broke out with the Rays and Padres, both organizations with smart front offices and the ability to delve tactfully into the international market, and the initial perception of Pagan is that he is another Hispanic wunderkind that the Rays dredged up. Digging even a little bit shows that Pagan started in the Seattle organization, bounced to Oakland and eventually went to Tampa. And while he is Puerto Rican, he is actually from the Charlotte area. He sounds like this:

When you hear the name, especially given the number of Latin American players in the league, you might initially think you know what to expect, and it probably isn't Carolina southerner.

Not until you dig deeper. That's what the Twins did with him too. Pagan's raw numbers were inexcusably bad last season, but the Twins liked his stuff. They also saw that some of his peripheral numbers were out of whack. Home runs per fly ball, batting average on balls in play, and his walk rate, were all very bad by any standard, even versus his career numbers.

2023 seems like a correction. Certainly, some of those same categories are now even better than his career figures. The walk rate is encouraging, and he should be even better with strikeouts than he has been this year. Digging deeper, as the Twins did, would show that this is closer to the Emilio Pagan we should know. 

The Carolina righty with an electric fastball.

The Marlins Magic

Twins fans spent the first half of the season looking closely at the Miami Marlins, wondering what might have been. Obviously, this was because the Twins and Marlins made a major trade over the offseason. Luis Arraez came out at the beginning of the year to a ton of attention, while Pablo Lopez's results weren't yet matching his metrics. It didn't help that the Twins were inconsistent, and the Marlins seemed to do no wrong.

Now that the Twins are getting more proficient on offense, people around here haven't really focused on the Marlins or the trade for a while. Arraez also hasn't been as otherworldly as he was to start the season. He's still been the best player for the Marlins by a pretty wide margin, especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

Arraez is the top player by WAR for the Marlins this year, and the next 5 players on the list are in the starting rotation. One might suspect that this is because the rotation is very good, which it is, but also, the Marlins offense is very bad. The Twins offense has been moribund this season, but still, there are SEVEN position players for the Twins that would be better than the 2nd best Marlins position player this season, including Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien, the replacements for Arraez at 2nd this year. 

If the Twins had attained the results they expected from their two highest end position players, I think we would more clearly recognize Minnesota for the well rounded team they are. There is plenty of offensive talent on the Twins roster, and last season, the Twins learned the value of pitching depth. It's easy for me, because of the logic fand because of how often we reflected on this move earlier in the year, to see the logic and the benefit of the move for the Twins.

What I don't think enough people understand, though, is how utterly lost the Marlins would be without Arraez. The Twins added another weapon to a rotation that needed health to really thrive. The addition of Arraez gave Miami a decent player. The third highest WAR among Marlins position players is utility guy John Berti. The Marlins, thanks to their rotation and Arraez, are still somehow in the playoff hunt.

The Marlins are clearly able to develop pitchers -- they had one to spare in Lopez, and still are riding their arms this season. Their offensive ineptitude makes me think it was lucky they grabbed Arraez in this trade rather than any sort of real prescience. 

A simple look under the hood for the Marlins should show the team that they need to work on their offense this offseason. With a weak free agent class this off season, maybe they can try to work a little magic on the trade market. It worked once.

Cable Crunch

 The best part about Cable TV, or over the air TV, anyways, is the ability to flip channels. As we sit here now, I am flipping from the Twins game to Monday Night Football, all with the press of a button. That is right now the last best thing about over the air TV, the ability to toggle through live events easily.

Sure, if you have more than one screen, or multiple apps completely eviscerating your CPU, you could watch a bunch of events with a simple flip of a button or what have you. On college football Saturday's it would be a challenge to have several ESPN versions running, in addition to Fox Sports, Youtube or whatever college games are going to be on. And during the postseason, I would want MLB.TV up and running as well...

With Bally Sports about to collapse, the Minnesota sports teams are going to be free agents. The only local area networks that I can think of that might be able to secure the rights to keep local sports on air locally are things like 45, WFTC or the CW. Don't count out the CW, which has purchased the rights to LIV and Inside the NFL. They are making a sports play, and local sports rights might be next.

But then the Loons and the rest of MLS have gone to Apple TV. I can't imagine other sports will be different. We already have Amazon, Peacock and ESPN taking pro sports online. There is a decent chance local sports are taken out of locals' hands, as with the MLS. With TV deal money already becoming limited, the inability to tap into local interest seems like it could be ruinous for the non-NFL leagues.

The next few years are going to be tough for sports fans, especially those like me, who like to watch a quantity of sports, as we adapt, and will be forced to pick and choose what it is we want to enjoy.  The rest of the TV world was subsidizing sports ans forever, so I guess turnabout is fair play.

The next best thing about Cable TV was the array of channels that I can turn on and leave to take in idly.  Law and Order marathons, cooking shows, weather, things like that. Now, there is plenty of 'free' live television, or subscription television, like FreeVee, Peacock and Paramount +. You can leave it on for hours without having to be invested in anything, and it's great.

If only there was a platform that could aggregate all the live sports for us now. I don't think that's going to be happening, though. And that's a bummer.

Well, well, well, the Twins are heating up

 The Twins have been in front of the AL Central, and after taking 2/3 from the Cleveland Guardians, in Cleveland and after they made a bold move to claim three players on waivers, have essentially ended the race, in their favor. They lost this afternoon, but with a resurgent offense and a weak slate of upcoming opponents, the door is wide open for the home town 9. 

The consternation over the bullpen is important over the final stretch of the season. With the pacing of playoff series, starters can go longer, and back of the rotation starters, like Kenta Maeda, a very good starter in his own right, will also move to the bullpen. Bailey Ober may come back and pitch out of the 'pen. With starters like Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, the concern over the relief corps should be diminished in the post season.

Through the first half of the season, the bats were completely dormant. As the season progressed, three things have happened. First, players that were slumping are coming around. I'm looking at you, Max Kepler. 2nd half Carlos Correia, Ryan Jeffers and even Christian Vasquez have been appreciably better since the break.

Then, there has been the contribution of young players, all added in season. It started with Edouard Julien, followed by Matt Wallner and most recently, emphatically, Royce Lewis. Somehow, Lewis is getting better and better as he goes. Also, importantly, he's coming through in important spots, an important trait with the playoffs looming.

Of course, the steady performance of veterans like Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor have been valuable, the improvement at designated hitter has been remarkable. Byron Buxton just hasn't had it this season, and while some of his other teammates were given the chance to sort things out, the DH role was improved by replacement, as it has rotated through Julien, Jeffers and Jorge Polanco. 

The Twins, despite only emerging lately, are built like a playoff team. Many fans worry that their team isn't built to reach the playoffs, but not whether or not they are built to succeed in the playoffs. This version of the Twins is built for the playoffs. They have a strong set of starting pitchers, fixable bullpen issues with anchors at the back end, and an offense littered with veteran, clutch performers. 

If Minnesota wasn't in the clutches of an unbreakable curse, I'd feel really good about their postseason chances. 

Dallas Keuchel showed us why Pablo Lopez was such a great acquisition

The conversation has died down a little bit on whether or not the Arraez/Lopez trade was worthwhile for the Twins, but the recent series with the Phillies was another piece of information in favor of Minnesota. I'm not even talking about Lopez's great outing in the season. I'm talking about Dallas Keuchel's clunker.

A lot has been made of Luis Arraez's brilliant season with the Marlins. Earlier in the year, he was very seriously flirting with .400. Now, it is around .367, thanks in part to a .260 average so far in August. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez has almost singlehandedly kept the Twins on the right track. When the Twins were doing poorly, Lopez has come through with a dominant outing.

But this isn't a 1-1 comparison, even though, for the moment, Lopez is in a better stretch than Arraez. It's about what their absence would have meant. Bot the Twins and Marlins were able to reasonably patch over the absence of the player that they traded away. The Marlins have a deep well of starting pitchers and prospects. The Twins plugged Edouard Julien in at 2nd, and he seems like a contender for rookie of the year. Certainly, Julien is the most consistent player the Twins have had in the offense for a while.

The Marlins, even after adding Arraez, were aggressive at the deadline, adding, among others, Josh Bell and Jake Burger because they needed a serious jolt of offense. Even with Arraez, it wasn't enough for the Marlins to put together a capable offense. Would another left handed bat, no matter how much he got on base, really have made the Twins offense look more competent this season?

Now, if you subtracted Lopez from the rotation, you likely would have had more Dallas Keuchel for sooner. He was good in St. Paul, but has been a poor Major League pitcher for some time now. I fear his season opener against Philadelphia was more telling than his first. If the Twins don't have Lopez this season, then they would have more Keuchel starts. Or Louie Varland, or Simeon Woods-Richardson. Perhaps Cole Sands or Josh Winder get starts. The step back from Lopez to his replacement would be worse than Arraez to Julien. 

The Twins traded away a popular, very good player, but are better because of it. Just because the Twins won the trade doesn't mean the Marlins had to lose it either. 

The Twins are winning, even if they aren't doing what we want.

Last Saturday, the Twins enshrined Joe Mauer into the team hall of fame. Mauer is indisputably the most popular Twins since Kirby Puckett, and arguably the best Twins position player since Rod Carew. Maybe better than Carew. Whatever the case, Mauer is top 5 since the team moved to Minnesota. 

Mauer, of course, was not the player people expected him to be. He was a very good defender, first behind the plate and then at first base. He was an on base machine, nearly matching Carew's OBP, despite an average that was 20 points lower for his career. But he was 6'4 and strong, yet he wasn't ever really a power hitter.

Imagine the disrespect I felt, then, on the day Mauer was honored for his time with the Twins, the current Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers launched two dingers in the teams victory against the Diamondbacks. This win is part of the Twins 6-1 record since the trade deadline, where the Twins were generally inactive. Like Joe Mauer's power at the plate, it wasn't what fans expected and people were upset.

But like Joe Mauer at the plate, the results have been good. They just swept Arizona, took 2 out of three from the Cardinals and got their series in Detroit kicked off in dynamic fashion. Professional sports are a results based business, and with the results as they are, the inactivity looks to be merited so far.

Unlike Mauer's halcyon years, the Twins haven't been getting consistent productivity from their best players. The Twins would struggle when role players weren't producing, but they could often rely on Mauer or Justin Morneau, even Torii Hunter when they were needed, with the other role players coming up short in times of need. The 2023 Twins are the opposite.

Willi Castro continues to be one of the more valuable Twins, along with rookies Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. The other position players in the top 12 in WAR for the Twins, according to Baseball-Reference are Donovan Solano and Michael A Taylor. The highest WAR among a position player belongs to Jeffers, who saw the Twins sign Christian Vasquez to take most of the catching reps this season. 

The players the team expected to be the best on the roster haven;t been available, or haven't played to the best of their abilities yet. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Alex Kirilloff, Vasquez, or Jorge Polanco have fallen flat this season. The Twins haven't had any right handed production, but the players that should be the best in that role, Buxton and Correa have been the worst.

So without an idea of the best version of the Twins, it is a challenge to properly evaluate needs. Do you give up on all those players that are struggling? Max Kepler has demonstrated the value of good faith, and Jeffers has overtaken Vasquez with his break out. The front office has more patience and confidence in the roster than we do, and it seems as though they should be getting well soon.

Not that Jeffers or Kepler are unwell right now. We might not like the process, but if we learned anything from Joe Mauer, there are many ways to be successful.

Twins preparing to scour the bargain bin

 The Twins are in an interesting spot as the trade deadline approaches. In recent seasons, the concern centered around pitching, and the front office made targeted acquisitions there. This season, the pitching staff is mostly where it needs to be, and the weakness has been on offense. Still, on that front the Twins biggest issue was with the production of their most important players, players unlikely to be supplanted by in season acquisitions.

Lately, Minnesota has started to play better even as the rotation has started to show some strain, largely because the players the Twins expected to lean heavily on are finally showing their value. Carlos Correa, Christian Vasquez and Max Kepler are producing, and the biggest weakness, third base, will be improved by a return to health with a return to health for Jorge Polanco initially, then eventually Royce Lewis.

This isn't a front office that is known for sitting idly by, despite what Twitter users used to say (they may still, I just haven't visited the site in a month). They aren't going to take the trade deadline off, but what kind of maneuvering might they do? I'll say that there are two obvious choices, if only because this group hasn't ever done the obvious thing, at least in my line of sight.

The two obvious moves are for a left handed reliever with Caleb Thielbar injured and Jovani Moran not really inspiring a lot of confidence, and right handed bat, even with Carlos Correa coming around. The typical producing positions are largely left handed and adding a righty will help to balance the lineup. Those aren't generally areas that are typically hard to come by on the late season trade market.

With those two weaknesses addressed, I could foresee another position that the Twins might look to add: Swing starter. There are a lot of young pitchers in the rotation, and some, like Baily Ober and Kenta Maeda with a history of injury concerns. We are starting to see the rotation show some holes, with Sonny Gray, Ober and Joe Ryan recently throwing some clunkers, and having someone in to put more space between starts or more reliable in long relief would help to preserve the rotation all the way to the postseason.

This might simply be accomplished by bringing Dallas Keuchel to the fold. A spot may open if the Twins deal from depth and send out a left handed position player. Keuchel has been performing well in  St. Paul and did not opt out at the deadline this week. It's very reasonable to think that this is a position the Twins are thinking of, and that Keuchel is the solution.

I don't think the Twins are going to be paying anything more than cash or a very fringe prospect this deadline, and it will be hard to execute the two or three moves it would take to get here without giving up a real premium. A deadline where you probably don't make many moves means it is really hard to screw it up, especially since it is unlikely you will get suckered into a bidding war. 

The only thing I feel confident in saying is that the Twins will wait to the absolute last possible moment to make any moves.

Let's get a little optimistic

 The season has been rough for the Twins, no doubt about it. Just ask anyone who has watched them. The 2024 schedule came out yesterday, and it seemed like so many people are already done with this season, having another calendar to look ahead to was a therapeutic balm. But this season isn't over. Circumstances being what they are, even though they are pretty mediocre so far, the Twins are only half a game out. And there is certainly reason for optimism. 

I noted last week, and before that to anyone who would listen, that the biggest issue with this team is that the players we expected to be the best on the roster have been among the worst. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been quite bad. Jose Miranda has been terrible. Christian Vasquez has failed to contribute. While Miranda will likely be replaced, we should be able to count on Correa, Buxton and Vasquez to get better. They are too good not to get better. 

There have been some health issues, though not as pronounced in recent years. Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco could definitely help with the anemic offense, particularly at third base, as Edouard Julien has been one of the highlights of the season so far. Still, another bat is another hope for a little bit of offense. I've also noted that the Twins have been aggressive in supplementing their team in the past. I would be surprised if they didn't do something at the deadline this year. And recent history says that the Twins won't be shy to dream big. What about a rental of Nolan Arenado for the rest of the season? 

I'm not going to get carried away thinking about potential trades. Those have had a tendency to turn sideways in the past, so let's look at a positive trend that is already here. The Twins have the easiest schedule in baseball left ahead of them. Minnesota has struggled against the top teams in the league, and feasted on the dregs. A start to the second half in Oakland might just be the kick the team needs to get moving. 

If that doesn't work, well, at least the rest of the division is in the tank too, Something that the Twins fandom forgets after so much postseason ineptitude is that getting your ticket to the dance is all it takes. The Twins have been better than their record indicates based on their Pythagorean record (based on runs scored vs. allowed) and given the pitching they have, there isn't reason to believe that will change a lot. 

In short, the Twins should make the playoffs, and when they do, anything could happen. Optimism! 

What's riding on the 2nd half?

 

The Minnesota Twins are a half game out of first place, and were widely expected to finish second or third in the division this year. Cleveland and Chicago have played a role in this surprise contention, but generally, being in a better spot than anticipated should lead to better vibes than the Twins have going on. There is a long sordid history of Twins postseason ineptitude that I need not get into right now, and the combination of history, expectations and the comical hamhandedness of the rest of the division is leading to a lot of confused anger. 

Just getting into the playoffs isn't going to cut it anymore. The Twins haven't won a postseason game in nearly 20 years, or a series in over 20 years. Stumbling through a season to enter the postseason ass first is not an altogether reassuring prospect for this particular organization. The fan base is looking for targets to blame, and there is plenty to go around, even if some of it is misguided. 

There is a lot of vitriol directed at the front office. You get there when a team comes out flat a few years in a row, but I am not going to pin the blame there. While mediocre, the Twins of the Falvey tenure have been better than they were for the 6 years before they were around. They were tasked when they arrived with developing the pitching staff, and they have what is probably the best rotation in the game right now, and against all odds, a bullpen that is in the upper half. They've spent good money, and at the time of the deals they have made, were viewed as the winner of almost all of the moves.

Essentially, the front office has done everything you want them. They brought the organization to the modern age after living in the 90s through most of the 2010s, they fleshed out their rotation and they have been aggressive in free agency. They aren't fools, just unlucky, and I think that they aren't to blame.

In that same thread, the moribund offense has been the problem, and while a lot of people have pointed at the signing of Joey Gallo as an issue, I don't think it is. If you sign Joey Gallo, the season he is putting together is exactly what you signed up for. He has the highest on base percentage of any of the double digit home run hitters, despite a low average, and has the 2nd highest OPS of the top 9 Twins in at bats behind Donovan Solano. Gallo strikes out a lot, but he's not the problem.

The most emblematic issue of the Twins season right now is Carlos Correa. He's not earning his contract thus far. He's been a below average player this season. Not just sub standard for his standards, but by major league baseball. Byron Buxton, the other bigger contract in the organization, has also been a disappointment. Without his defense, the pedestrian numbers at the plate stand out a little bit more. Buxton is not producing enough to be a good DH.

Both Buxton and Correa have a coupe of things in common. First, they are hurt. Their performance is likely diminished by back spasms and plantar fasciitis. 2) They are franchise cornerstones. Neither player can be moved, and neither are pulling their weight. A trip to the IL seems like it might be a way to get some of those players mashing in St. Paul an opportunity. It can't be much worse. 

The front office isn't likely to go anywhere, and the players that are the biggest problems are the players that are the least likely to be moved. Improvement is going to have to come internally, and if it doesn't, it' hard to argue against coaching changes. David Popkins would be the most likely to go, but if the season fails to launch, Rocco Baldelli should probably be concerned for his job. Managers aren't as impactful as a lot of people think, and one thing that they do offer is themselves in sacrifice for bad runs of form. 

A playoff appearance is at stake with the final months of the season, but so too is Rocco Baldelli's job if things continue the way they've gone.

A scary trade deadline looms

 Despite what you may have heard about the Twins, they are still in a close race for the American League Central. They haven't been good, and are sitting just below .500 on the season. With the rotation they are trotting out, and some big money locked up in the lineup, the fact that they have a better than 50/50 shot at the post season meants that, without a doubt, at the end of the month, they will be one of the deadline buyers.

Yikes. 

If you look at the scale of trades the current organization has made, deadline sell offs would be #1 in their skill set (think of Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran), while offseason deals would be number two. Deadline acquisitions have been a painful exercise of "be careful what you wish for". So often, Twins fans, myself included, have begged for the Twins to be active at the deadline, to supplement runs to the playoffs. It's impossible to understate how badly this has imploded.

This year, as I have noted, the problem is with the areas they need to supplement. Not only do we have a fairly tragic recent history with deadline deals, but the Twins are in a position to bolster a unit that might as well improve if they can get improved production from prospects that the Twins have been waiting along for some time.

The outfield is the greatest weakness right now for the Twins, but the players I think most fans would like to see on the roster from St. Paul are Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Do you trust young players to revive a moribund offense? Do you want the team to expend the resources it would take to add a premium bat, knowing the recent history of the front office? Especially if that acquisition means less time for Larnach or Wallner or any other youngster trying to make their way into the league?

The front office has not been afraid to make moves to update the roster, and they have been conscious about areas that need to be addressed. What will they decide needs to be addressed, and what is the best way to do it? The track record tells us that the Twins will make moves that make a ton of sense, and patch holes in an efficient and thoughtful way. The same track record tells us that the move will almost immediately blow up in the Twins' face. 

There is no solution

It's another frustrating season for Twins fans. They started off well, and have proceeded to get worse as the season has dragged on. The summer warm up has not led to an offensive renaissance, and in fact have seen the offensive struggles balloon. Most of Twins Twitter is demanding some sort of change, lamenting the changes that were made in the last year or so and simply calling into question the organization.

The last couple of weeks in particular have been hard to watch. The offense has flailed, the bullpen is showing wear, and the rotation has simply been unable to keep the blistering pace they had early in the season. In past years, the solution out of the team hole was always apparent. Get more pitching.

Now the Twins have pitching, featuring one of the best rotations in baseball, even if they have been a bit over their own heads to this point. The problem is an offense that doesn't score enough to forgive the prodigious amount of strikeouts. The team often looks listless at the plate, and again are finding ways to fall on their face during important moments. 

The roster hasn't had the same injury issues that it did in recent years. The gravest underperformers are relatively healthy players that are not easily replaced. Meanwhile, people you might expect to be to blame are buoying the team. Willi Castro is the most productive Twin by WAR. Joey Gallo has a 110 OPS+, meaning that his productivity is 10% better than league average, despite a sub 200 average and so many strikeouts. 

Players with new contracts, Christian Vazquez and Carlos Correa are having bad starts to the year, though Correa has finally had a bit of life in his bat in patches. Players expected to be building blocks for the future, like Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach haven't been good enough to maintain their spots on the roster, and certainly aren't at the level of what a team would hope for from a corner fielder. 

The offense needs a jump start. We can complain about the bullpen all we want, but a strong bullpen is a luxury that matters only to the very good teams. The Twins aren't very good. But what do you fix on this Twins team that hasn't already been addressed? Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff are getting regular playing time. You can't well take Correa out of the lineup. Really, the only player still getting regular reps that shouldn't be is Max Kepler. If he is dropped, Larnach probably gets the next shot, though Matt Wallner can't be kept at bay much longer.

Even then, the most important thing that needs to happen is that the guys on the roster start getting better results. Players perform to the capabilities we know and expect, and the Twins are suddenly running away with the division. This is the third year in a row that this hasn't been happening, though, and one has to wonder if there is a systemic problem.

The Twins under Rocco Baldelli were at their best when Derek Shelton was the bench coach, James Rowson was the hitting coach and Wes Johnson was the pitching coach. Johnson leaving in the middle of last season was immediately felt, but not having Shelton or Rowson has been a slower burn. The coaching staff now is largely unproven even after a couple of years on the job.

Like I said, though, losing Johnson mid season was only a negative last year, and changing the coaching staff mid stride on a baseball team isn't a great way to improve morale or results. If the Twins can't shake off these doldrums, much like the last two seasons, it will be time to remake Baldelli's bench, up to, and perhaps including Baldelli himself.

But that isn't something to be done now. Right now, there are no fixes, so expect fans to keep getting upset about hypotheticals and living in the past.