Never enough

 

Like so many of his teammates, Ricardo Allen stood on the field at NRG Stadium in disbelief on February 5th. How could the Falcons have lost that game? What else did they have to do? What more could they have done? Why weren't they Super Bowl champions? Fortunately for Allen, doubt has always been a part of life, and something he has embraced.

This offseason will be no different for the young Falcons safety, who, among his other disadvantages, is dramatically undersized for any role on an NFL team, aside from kicker or third down back. Despite 90 tackles for Atlanta last year, and a clutch pair of playoff interceptions, many pundits find free safety to be the Falcons most upgradable defensive position.

This criticism, like that has come before it has nothing to do with Allen's productivity. Video certainly shows him overmatched at times in run stopping or when attempting to take down a larger receiver or tight end, but he generally accomplishes his task. His size is a handicap, certainly, but that's far from the only reason you could have been surprised to see him in the NFL today.

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Adrian was the football player in the Allen family of Daytona Beach, Florida. He had the passion for the game and the spot on the roster at Mainland High School. His younger brother, Ricardo "threw the ball around in the back yard", but never demonstrated the desire to play the game.

Adrian is the older brother of Ricardo, and was a star running back for Mainland, the high school Ricardo would eventually attend. One evening, while Ricardo was trying to prepare himself something to eat, he drifted off, leaving hamburger in popping grease unattended. A half hour later, Adrian discovered a fire in the kitchen and attempted to douse it with water. Unfortunately, as the fire was a grease fire, it spread with the splash of the water, severely burning the older Allen.

Adrian's career was over. Ricardo was shaken by this misfortune, feeling the sting of culpability. Rather than internalizing this pain, the younger Allen took it as a sort of divine inspiration. He needed to play football because his brother no longer could. Ricardo joined Mainland's team when he reached high school a few years later, and worked hard on the field, as much for his family as for himself.

While at Mainland, the younger Allen played on the defensive side of the ball, and turned himself into a 3 star recruit at cornerback. He was recruited by several major conference teams, though none were close to home. The Floridian powerhouses had options that were taller than the 5'9 Allen, and opted for raw ability, rather than the results that Allen produced in high school. He had opportunities in the SEC, ACC and at Illinois, but opted to attend Purdue University.

Despite not looking the part of a major college football player, Allen rose to the top almost immediately. Even though there wasn't a buzz around him when he came out of high school, Danny Hope's staff took notice of the diminutive DB as soon as he reached the sidelines in Purdue. He was a ball hawk, and a hard worker, still out to prove himself and to right the childhood wrong he still felt guilty about.

Internally, he may not yet have felt that he righted any wrong, but he certainly proved himself as an athlete. He set a Purdue record for interceptions returned for touchdowns, and was named all-conference and started every year he was in West Lafayette. Normally, this would be a sign of a career in the NFL, but his was in doubt. He couldn't shake the fact that in a league where wide receivers were getting bigger every year, he was still only 5'9".

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Purdue was a bad team while Ricardo Allen was there, and they only got worse as he played through his 4 years in West Lafayette. Undoubtedly, this buried some of his accomplishments with the Boilermakers, and as a result, nobody batted an eye when Allen, who had broken some of Rod Woodson's records at Purdue, fell to the 5th round, where he was selected by Atlanta.

Dismissed before the draft, and at a disadvantage when he arrived at camp, thanks again to both his size, but also his provenance, coming from a weak football program, Ricardo Allen did not make the Falcons roster in his first year. He spent his rookie season with the scout team, moving to safety and biding his time.

He stepped in a year later and ended up acquitting himself nicely in pass defense, but allowing questions to linger about his size and strength. Safeties are usually hard hitters with a bit of size, which is important in run support or regulating the middle of the season. Still, he was a durable player, and more or less reliable in his first year as a starter.

This season, the Falcons drafted additional support at safety, in Keanu Neal from Florida. The big, talented and well regarded first round pick was a surefire choice for one of the starting roles at safety. After proving himself in 2015, Ricardo Allen was tabbed for the second starting safety position, lining up next to the hard hitting former Gator

The pairing worked, especially for Allen, who stepped up and was part of 90 tackles this season.

Allen was back to his college era best when the playoffs rolled around. He doubled his season's output in interceptions, with two, including one from Russell Wilson and another from Aaron Rodgers. He started in the Super Bowl, and though he didn't turn in any big plays, he was always near the action, his keen nose for the action evident again

And then, the Super Bowl came. Fearing nothing, Ricardo Allen made a statement to that effect. Neither he nor his counterparts in the secondary were afraid of Tom Brady or the Patriots. The first half of SB LI made everyone realize that the statement wasn't just bluster. The Falcons were more than willing to face up to Brady and his Patriots.

It wasn't fear that led to the Falcons downfall, but rather the Patriots persistence and experience. The Falcons offense didn't lift their foot off the accelerator in the first half, but suddenly seemed overwhelmed, undisciplined and careless in the second half. They couldn't hold on to the ball any more, and it was in Tom Brady's capable hands for the rest of the game. The Atlanta defense wore down because they were constantly on the field, and the Patriots were eventually able to pick them apart.

The Falcons had bad breaks, such as Julian Edelman's famous catch, and were often overpowered on defense, thanks to tired legs. James White's winning touchdown is a perfect example of a team that had simply been on the field too much. Ricardo Allen was there for both plays, but didn't have enough in the tank to turn them to Atlanta's favor.

The loss really wasn't all on the defense, and it wouldn't have been specifically on Allen, even if it was the defense's fault. That doesn't mean that he, like the rest of the team, isn't left wondering what they could have done. How could they have change the outcome of the game? What could they have done differently?

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The Falcons organization, like Allen, leftare wrestling with that question this offseason. Unless they can win the Super Bowl, they will likely live with those questions for the remainder of their days. Even if they DO win a ring, they may never get over Super Bowl 51.

The Falcons are taking a broader look at the organization, but asking the same questions. What can they do to make sure they not only reach, but win the Super Bowl in Minneapolis? One of the first places many people are looking at is the undersized safety from Purdue, from Daytona Beach, Florida. Can't he be upgraded?

With a young defense, most of whom come with a better pedigree than Allen, many pundits point to Free Safety as a target area in the draft. Allen is a restricted free agent, and if the Falcons believe they can improve that spot, he may be out of a starting role. He has signed a tender to remain with the team, but that doesn't mean the team won't attempt to draft new talent at his position and with contracts in the NFL not guaranteed, he could still be unemployed at some point this summer

The good news is, there will be a team, just as the Falcons did towards the end of the 2015 draft, that looks at Allen's track record and not his size and brings him aboard with an eye towards a starting spot. Maybe he will never leave Atlanta, but maybe he will need to some day.

Allen has dedicated his football career to an older brother who couldn't follow his dream. Everyone doubted him, every step of the way, and even now, with reels of tape and years of success, questions remain. He can never give enough to appease his skeptics, but that's ok for Ricardo Allen, because he hasn't given enough to give himself peace either.

(fake) Tournament excitement!

Not long ago, on the old site (I think), I postulated that the time was coming for a new conference in the upper Midwest. I thought that the emergence of 4 fairly capable teams in the Dakotas,as well as the relative size of a few other schools in the northern Plains, made it possible for a regional conference to emerge in the area. Of course, part of this was simply the odd fact that North Dakota was in the Big Sky, while the other three schools were n the Summit. North Dakota has plans too move into the Summit in two years, but frankly, I think a more local conference is still in the best interest for all teams in consideration.
First, the lynchpin. I've long advocated for the move of a Minnesota school to Division 1, if only for basketball. After St. Cloud, UMD and Minnesota State have all balked at making the move despite their conference rivals in the Dakotas and at Omaha making the transition, it has become clear for me that it would have to be a smaller school taking the bold move of entering the world of Division 1 basketball. At 10,500 students, the next largest institution is St. Thomas, which is comfortably larger than places like Wake Forest, in the ACC.
So we will add St. Thomas and North Dakota to the Summit, and work at making it more geographically sound, and getting the membership at a tight 12 members. The first thing to do is swap out the two schools in Indiana, IUPUI and IUPFW, trading them into the Horizon League and acquiring Green Bay and Milwaukee. Oral Roberts is the furthest away, in Oklahoma. They can move to the more regionally appropriate Southland conference, which they have tried to join before, and would again if there isn't a better northern option for the school. There are two Iowa schools that fit in with what we are trying to do, in that they are not major conference members, but are local, generally basketball focused schools. Northern Iowa and Drake would be good additions to our new Upper Midwest conference.
That's 9 schools accounted for. Omaha is an obvious choice to include in this conference, bringing us to 10. The easy choice is then to keep Western Illinois and Denver and make no additional changes. That said, I am trying to make the best choices for all teams across college basketball. I look at Denver and realize that there aren't many other schools out there. There is Colorado, which is the Pac 12, and Air Force and Colorado State in the Mountain West. Denver isn't big enough for either conference. The other school is Northern Colorado, in the Big Sky. Like North Dakota, they are far removed from the other Big Sky teams, and having a travel buddy in Denver would be a boon for the small school. Western Illinois has a glut of options, and would likely welcome a move to the Ohio Valley Conference.
To Recap, the new Upper Midwest Conference would be, alphabetically:
Denver
Drake
Green Bay
Milwaukee
North Dakota
North Dakota State
Northern Colorado
Northern Iowa
Omaha
Saint Thomas
South Dakota
South Dakota State
Sounds good, right? I like it. Let's get to the fun part that recently crossed my mind. This conference would need an automatic bid, so which school would earn that bid in 2017? First, I looked at the regular season RPIs of the teams in our new conference, to determine how they "finish" in the regular season, before being seeded in the conference tournament. I took the average number and assigned that to St. Thomas.
The finish:
North Dakota State
South Dakota
Omaha
Green Bay
Northern Iowa
North Dakota
South Dakota State
Saint Thomas
Denver
Northern Colorado
Milwaukee
Drake
I think there would be a logical expectation that the teams from outside the original Summit League would be strongest, but instead, it was three Summit League teams that finished at the top of the heap. The tournament would be:
Saint Thomas v Denver, winner v North Dakota State
Northern Iowa v Drake, winner v Green Bay
South Dakota State v Northern Colorado, winner v Omaha
North Dakota v Milwaukee, winner v South Dakota
The next step, as is usually the case, was to simulate the tournament. To do so, I used a random method for Saint Thomas, and used WhatifSports for all other games. In the first round, Denver knocked off St. Thomas, Drake upset Northern Iowa 83-69, South Dakota State beat Northern Colorado 72-61 and Milwaukee, just like in the Horizon this year, pulled an upset, but this time they beat North Dakota 83-70.
The second round had fewer surprises. North Dakota State topped Denver 67-56, Green Bay walloped Drake 74-58, and South Dakota crushed Milwaukee to end their run, 65-45. The only upset, and the tightest game of the entire tournament, involved South Dakota State topping Omaha by 2, 81-79, to mirror the Summit League title game.
The semifinals didn't go as planned, with both games registering as mild upsets. Green Bay topped North Dakota State 73-67 and South Dakota State beat their in-state rival by 10, 76-66. It was the Phoenix that ultimately earned the berth in the Big Dance of my dreams, with a 84-79 win against the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State.
This year, North Dakota and SDSU actually did end up with tournament berths, a 15 and 16 seed respectively. With smaller conferences, the Committee leans especially hard on RPI, Green Bay was higher than both of the schools that made it this year, so at the very least, they would be a 15, I would imagine, perhaps even a 14.
Here's hoping we can have a local conference sometime soon. The first step will be a Minnesota school finally having the courage to make the jump up to D1.

Following the Compass is getting going for 2017

This year's Following the Compass games, for those that don't remember, are tightly packed on the calendar, as well as on the map. I'm only going to attend one, but the first is tomorrow in the Bronx. For the first time, the game will be an MLS game, and it will be the home opener for NYCFC against DC United. It's only the second game of the season, so there isn't much tape on either team. DC drew 0-0 with Sporting Kansas City in their first match of the year while NYCFC lost 1-0 to Orlando. DC is usually a strong contender, with a roster based on MLS veterans, while NYCFC likes their veterans of European leagues, and relies on big names like David Villa and Andrea Pirlo to hold up their end of the bargain.
The other game on our calendar is a hockey game on April 3rd. That will be between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres, the first NHL game that Following the Compass has drafted. I will, in fact, be going to Buffalo for the game at the First Niagara Center. Each team has an exciting stable of young players. The Maple Leafs are coming together and appear to be a playoff team, with players like Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitchell Marner excelling. They have gone all in on the season, acquiring Brian Boyle for the stretch run. The Sabres haven't quite jelled like their rivals from Toronto. They made big moves in free agency and on the trade market anticipating a turn to respectability, with Kyle Okposo and trading for Evander Kane to play with top choice Jack Eichel.
This is going to be a fun game, because the rivalry between the two teams is so thick, and hockey games are, unquestionably, the best example of games that you need to watch in person.
I will be chronicling my experience at Barry Melrose Rocks when I head out to western New York. I will be tweeting along with NYCFC and DC United tomorrow afternoon, so please follow me @RhinoandCompass.

Who is better - Rosenborg or Minnesota United?

There is a new top level sports team coming to Minnesota. Minnesota United will begin their first season of MLS soccer with a match in Portland against the Timbers. The team has spent the last several months attempting to put together a roster good enough to compete with the teams they will face at the top level of American soccer. 

It turns out, most people don't think they have done a perfect job of that. They are dead last in MLS' own proprietary power rankings. 

The other summer league team that I follow closely is, of course, Norway's Rosenborg BK. They will start in April, defending their Eliteserien title. Rosenborg is the class of Norwegian football, and lost 3 games in each of the past two years. They also managed to win the Norwegian Cup, and though they have struggled in Europe, their repeat trip their ensures a better draw for the coming Champions League qualifiers.

So who is better? That's a tough question, but one that might be best answered by Vadim Demidov, new Minnesota United center back. He was recently elected captain for the coming team. Demidov spent his younger years manning the same position, though not as captain, with Rosenborg. In Minnesota, he is a surefire starter and an anchor of the back line. With Rosenborg, he was about to reach the crest of his career arc, on his way to play in Spain, Germany and Russia. Now in Minnesota, he returns after another spell in Norway, but on a clear downward trend. Rosenborg know what Demidov has to offer, and passed on bringing him back. The Loons made him the captain.

But it's more basic than that. If the MLS was a European league, it would probably be somewhere between 10-15th ranked in UEFA. Norway is 18th. It is not hard to imagine that the very best team in the 18tth best league is better than the worst in the 10th or 15th best leaguee. 

Yes, the Loons have a higher ceiling when they get a new stadium, and start rolling in the money brought by MLS TV contracts, but for right now, and perhaps for a few more years, my Norwegian object of adoration is going to be the better team.