Old friends

 The Twins did a lot this offseason. They overhauled the pitching rotation, added the biggest free agent on the market and swung a blockbuster trade with the Yankees to fill two spots on the roster. Then, naturally, Minnesota fell on their face coming out of the gate. 

Subsequently, they went on a 6 game winning streak that is still ongoing. They swept the White Sox and are on the precipice of a sweep of the Tigers as well. The revamped pitching staff is performing above expectations, and the offense has started humming as well. 

I've already mentioned Byron Buxton's explosive start. Losing him to injury early on was surely a primary issue with the way the season started. Other players are waking from their slumber as well, with Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and even a timely hit from Miguel Sano leading the way. 

In the last 4 games, Kepler has collected 7 hits, including three home runs, and boosted his overall WAR to .8 after hovering around 0 before the series with the White Sox. I had noted previously that Kepler was one of the players that was hitting the ball hard consistently, and had an xwOBA that didn't match his production. Kepler has always been unable to overcome shifts played against him, but he is now hitting the ball far enough that it hasn't mattered. 

Sano might be coming around as well. He still strikes out a lot, but his numbers are at the lowest rate of his career, while his walk rate is at the highest. He is a victim of a very low BABIP, and he has a xwOBA that is higher than any season, except his two best, in 2019 and 2017. He launched a rocket off of Robbie Grossman's glove to start the laugher that won the game for Minnesota, but he made solid contact in other at bats as well. His approach is leading to better peripherals, and those will inevitably lead to better results. He has a second off day in a row today, but that has more to do with finding a spot for Luis Arraez. 

Ryan Jeffers has seen a lot more action since Gary Sanchez suffered a knock last week. He has come through during the winning streak, getting 4 of his 9 hits in just the last three games. He also drove in 4 and hit a homer in that stretch. Jeffers is also the better defensive option, so keeping him in the lineup is a preferred option for the Twins. 

All of these guys were on the roster last year. A lot is made of free agency, and the Twins' typical reluctance to spend big during the offseason, but this hot stretch should reemphasize the importance of player development, and having a good core to build around. Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela will hit, certainly, but this team will really only be successful if the holdovers hold their own. 

All Hail Byron Buxton

 As a base salary, Byron Buxton is scheduled to make less in 7 years  than what Carlos Correa is scheduled to make in 3 years. With the way this season has started, it seems as though the Twins got a bargain on Byron Buxton.

Of course, there is no shortage of accelerators and incentives in Buxton's contract, but the point remains the same. Byron Buxton has been electric in the 10 games he has played this season, and is already responsible for 1.3WAR, which is somehow more than the entire Twins team. Byron Buxton is going to make his money, and he is going to earn every penny. 

Buxton has long been well known for his speed and defense. For years, I've been insisting that, even without a bat, he was a tremendously valuable player. In an era where players are almost exclusively gunning for home runs, having a rangy center fielder is akin to having a top short stop in the Golden Days. The Twins now have one of each, of course. 

The thing that sets this season apart is the power. 6 home runs in 12 games is pretty incredible, especially given that the weather has generally been uncooperative for the month of April. Buxton, if he plays 140 games would be on pace for 84 home runs. Half that in as many games would still be an incredible performance, reminiscent of Ken Griffey, all while I was waiting for Buxton to become Kenny Lofton.

Many people, myself included, were surprised that Buxton opted to remain in the Twin Cities long term, especially at a fairly reasonable rate. I thought he felt burned by the organization, but it seems as though he is quite dedicated to the Twins and Minnesota. An added element to his game, something that is emerging this year, is Buxton taking on a leadership role, both as a spokesperson, and through example. 

Josh Donaldson, the natural veteran leader of the Pandemic Years was traded away, and the big star acquisition, Correa, has outspokenly been deferent to Buxton, suggesting a clubhouse hierarchy with the centerfielder at the top. Just as importantly, after a very sluggish start, the Twins are back above .500 and atop the central through luck and sheer force of Byron Buxton's will. 

Byron Buxton is a special player, and his start to 2022 has been as special as he is. Appreciate it, and appreciate that everything that the Twins organization did was to build for and around him. Buxton is already trying to pay the twins back. 

The offense is coming

 

Last season, the Twins started at an historically bad pace, thanks largely to their ineffectiveness in late and close situations. Fangraphs has a "clutch" statistic, evaluating performance in high leverage situations, compared to the normal production. The Twins are bad offensively, and even worse when it counts. The scary thing is, they are significantly better in this metric than this time last year, when they went off the scale, thanks to their ineptitude. 

But they are hitting. Or rather, they are making contact, and making hard contact. But they also have a .043 BABIP in the big spots. That is something unlucky that will inevitably turn around. Even outside of the high leverage foibles, they have proven pretty hapless in general, but so much of that is at odds with their true talent as well. 

xwOBA is a statistic that tries to show what a player's productivity should be, based on things like exit velocity and launch angle. wOBA is a measure, by itself, of how productive a player is at the plate in general, with .320 being average, and .400 being great. Players that are at or above average on the Twins roster in xwOBA this season include Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Trevor Larnach. Max Kepler is actually second on the team in xwOBA behind Nick Gordon, and they rate in the high .370s, in Fangraphs' "Great" category. 

And then there are the players that are just off so far this season that one has to expect will come around. Carlos Correa stands out in that category. One hopes that this is where Alex Kirilloff is at as well, slumping, but better than he has shown. He has been fighting an injury, so perhaps this is an explanation.

There is also the cloud of the team that everyone has been talking about. The literal clouds. The cold, wet weather inhibits the flight of balls, and makes breaking pitches break a little bit more, making everything that much tougher. As things heat up, the bats should too. 

There are a lot of things working against the Twins right now. Bad luck in big situations, bad luck just in general for the hardest hitters in the lineup. Important players not doing what we expect them to do, and bad weather. All of these things will come around. The Twins will come around. 

Of course, I was saying this last year, too.

Competence at a small school

This year's Following the Compass games will take me to the Carolinas for football and basketball. The football game, between North Carolina and Appalachian State is certainly interesting, but perennial also-ran South Carolina Upstate's basketball team and potential opponent seemed less appealing, especially when, in the preseason, they were pegged as one of the worst teams in college hoops. 

But then, in 2021-22, they were competent. Certainly, they weren't at the talent level of the major conference teams, and even in the Big South Conference, they weren't necessarily the best team, but nor were they at the bottom of the conference. Ultimately, they ended up in 4th place, with a 10-6 record in conference play. 

Of the minor conferences, the Big South has been better than most, and 4th place netted the Spartans a postseason tournament berth, where they reached the second round of the Basketball Classic, beating Appalachian State and falling to South Alabama. For a team with low initial expectations, this has to be considered a success.

There were no big changes to the roster, but a look at the group shows a lot of juniors in the bunch. They got older, and they developed, staying in the same system with the same coach for the several years. Dave Dickerson is that coach, and he comes with a long resume, especially for a small school like Upstate. Dickerson's previous head coaching role took him to Tulane, but he also was an assistant at Ohio State for several years, and worked for the Utah Jazz as a scout before coming to Spartanburg. 

He has the buy in of his players, and those players are learned enough to play as well as they can play. Looking at their RPI, they feasted upon the lesser opponents in their conference, and managed to go 10-5 against Quad 4 teams. That's exactly what a team looking to get out of Quad 4 should do. Their game against Appalachian State was even a Quad 2 win, and it came late in the season, after a full, healthy season of Dickerson's coaching. 

The Spartans got notably better this year, and continued to do so throughout the season. They will return most of their team next year on what was already a fairly veteran group. They might not challenge for the Big South title, especially with Winthrop perennially in the catbird seat, but the game I go to in December looks to be more interesting than it initially seemed. 

Opener Delayed.... more time for deals!

 

I've been high on Chris Paddack for a while, and thought that the Twins and Padres could match up on a deal. I've thought that for years. This morning, that came to fruition, not at all in a way I expected. The Twins will acquire Paddack, reliever Emilio Pagan and a PTBNL for Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and cash in a pre-opener deal.

As with a couple of deals the Twins made this year, a lot of fans are focused on what the team gave up. It may not seem like it, because we recognize the name, but ultimately, it may be "not much". Taylor Rogers is coming off a hand injury, and he hasn't worked since that nick. How will he bounce back? That question is open ended, in his last year of his contract, which he was unlikely to renew with the Twins. If Rogers stumbles out of the gate, or if he never really bounces back (and closers are mercurial like that), then the Twins may have given up a few months of a mediocre pitcher for two guys that are more likely to contribute this season. 

Both players the Twins acquired were brilliant in 2019, but have struggled in the last two seasons. Who among us hasn't. Pagan was a lights out reliever for the Rays, but has subsequently bounced from team to team before landing with the Padres last season. He will be a fairly reliable arm out of the bullpen, and has a good slider which certainly makes Wes Johnson salivate. The Twins aren't likely to lean on one pitcher to close, which means getting a somewhat trustworthy pitcher is a welcome return.

Of course, I'm publishing this post the night after the Twins had their first blown save. It's important not to lean on one result and project it over the course of the season, especially when the Twins have only scored 4 runs in two games. If anything, my take away is that the starting pitching (and the middle relief) has been strong enough to keep the team in games, even as the offense has scuffled so far.

Paddack is no ordinary starter, either. In 2019, he came onto the scene as one of the most explosive young starters in all of baseball, despite bouncing back from Tommy John surgery. He has a brilliant changeup, something Twins fans who remember Johan Santana may appreciate, as well as a mid-90s fastball. He is coming to a breaking ball guru in Wes Johnson, and surely, the Twins think they can help him develop the third pitch that will make him unhittable. 

On Wednesday, when Paddack takes the mound, we will begin to see how valuable this trade is. Sure, you can lament the one rough inning from Tyler Duffey, but remember that Paddack is going to keep the Twins in games, 5,6,7 innings at a time, potentially for a few years, all while he is getting even better. Good rotations make good closers, and the Twins made an aggressive move to improve their group of starters. 

If you watched the introductions on the season opener, it sure looked like Paddack was happy to be here. In time, we will all be happy he (and maybe even Emilio Pagan) are here, too.