Twins execute their patented Spring Training trade

 

One thing I simply love about this Twins front office is their ability to constantly keep me guessing. There were, of course all sorts of signs that the organization was looking for right handed depth. They were rumored to be in the market for Enrique Hernandez, Adam Duvall or a reunion with Michael A Taylor to complete that quest and instead of simply making an easy free agency signing, they swung a trade with the Dodgers for Manuel Margot. Surprise! 

Margot offers the Twins exactly what they were looking for. Margot offers a little bit of defensive versatility in the outfield, from the right side of the plate and will only cost the Twins $4m in salary this season. They also swapped prospects, with both being at about the same prospect level rating, but the Twins new player, Rayne Doncon, potentially being a slower burn than Noah Miller, who went to LA.

Margot is probably exactly what the Twins needed to round out their offensive side of the roster. They needed a right handed bat that could platoon with Matt Wallner or defensively in center when Buxton isn't able to play. Margot has some injury history, but getting him off of the Tampa Bay turf will do a world of good for him. 

The obvious comparison is between Margot and Taylor, since Taylor was the featured center fielder last year, and had a career year in the role. Taylor wanted to come back, and seemed to be a good clubhouse fit, but the mechanics of a reunion simply wouldn't have worked as well as the deal for Margot. 

Taylor will rightfully want and earn $10-12m per season, and perhaps a two year deal. After a career year at the plate last year, he would likely also want a starting spot, if he could find one, which is not as likely to be available in Minnesota this year with Buxton coming in fully healthy. For his part, Margot profiles as a similar hitter to Taylor, but with fewer strikeouts, which is great news for everyone sick of the Twins striking out all the time last year. 

This works out well for the Twins, Margot (who is still getting paid his $10m salary) and even Taylor, who will get a good opportunity for a salary he earned, just not in Minnesota. 

My kingdom for a right handed bat

Earlier in the offseason, I wrote about the Twins building Target Field, a park that seemed to have been built for righties, then putting together a roster that never seemed to have many right handed thumpers. The two top paid players on the team are right handed, but nobody would ever call Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton "bat first". 

Really, the big right handed thumper in the lineup is Ryan Jeffers, with newly signed Carlos Santana also adding a bit of oomph from the right side of the plate, but none of the depth, nearly anywhere, can provide an alternative. 

The Twins traded Luis Arraez - a lefty - last season in an effort to deal from a strength to support a weakness. This offseason, they traded Jorge Polanco, a switch hitter, primarily to give Edouard Julien - a lefty - more at bats. 

In the last few weeks, ever since the Twins had their awakening and started making moves, the Twins have made it pretty clear where their priorities lie. No, they aren't going to spend a ton of money on a starting pitcher. They are laser focused on making their bench more right handed. Finally, someone is listening to me.

They added to an already strong bullpen by trading sparkplug Nick Gordon - a lefty - to the Marlins, receiving Steven Okert - ironically, another lefty, but out of the bullpen. Gordon was squeezed out by the existing infielders, the outfield depth, and by the fact that the Twins are really looking for a right handed bat to fill out their bench.

Even though a lot of writers and more hangdog fans are focusing on the fact that the Twins have openly said there won't be a large bump to the payroll before the season starts, I am focused on the fact that the Twins clearly aren't done shopping.

Minnesota has been tied to Michael A. Taylor for a reunion after Taylor had a very productive season last year. Taylor has wanted a two year deal, but as time runs out on the offseason, it is more likely that he will be willing to take a 1 year deal to give the left handed corner outfielders a right handed complement.

Even as Gordon was sent to Miami, the Twins were also considering, and are one of the finalists for, veteran utility guy Enrique "Kiké" Hernandez, a veteran who hits on the right side of the plate.

The Twins might not have the same high payroll of last year, but don't be surprised by at least one more late roster move. 

The Twins are ahead of the competition

We think about the offseason within a vacuum. Are the Twins better than they were in the previous season? Certainly not from the mound, maybe on offense, because of the natural progression of their young players. The flashy headlines weren't there for the Twins this year, after a couple of years at the center of the baseball world. 

We knew there were flaws with the Twins, and they were unaddressed through trade or free agency, while teams like the Dodgers and Yankees took big swings. This is a controversial take, but: It doesn't matter.

The Twins need to win the AL Central to make the playoffs. As of last season, the Twins were 9 games better than their nearest competition. Two teams were more than 25 games out from the Twins, including the Kansas City Royals, who were also active this offseason. 

Did the Twins get 9 games worse this off season? I don't think so. The Royals surely didn't get 25 games better even with all their moves. The White Sox aren't any better either, while the Guardians are probably going in the wrong direction. That leaves the Tigers to really be concerned about.

So are the Twins still better than the Tigers? Did the Tigers make up the ground, if the Twins didn't lose that ability? There is something to be said for their youth and natural development of a roster that is mostly under the age of 25, but did they build a better roster too? They lost their top veteran starter in Eduardo Rodriguez and replaced him with Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty. 

I would say that the Tigers may be in line for a break out, but so too are many players on the Twins roster. The Twins could certainly be a better team, but to get through the season, they are good enough now. 

Snow in time for spring training

 Just in time for the biggest (and nearly the first) snow of the year, we also got the first reports to Spring Training. We did it everyone, we made it to Spring Training. I'm actually thankful for this snow that we got, because it really makes baseball seem special. It seems so distant right now, but it's so close. 

It was a slow start to the offseason, but it really picked up lately. A lot of the fan base is lamenting the weaker rotations, but national writers are enamored with the bullpen, and prospect followers are excited about the young talent that is going to have more time under their belt; Eddy Julien, Royce Lewis, even Jose Miranda is primed to come back. Then there is the potential arrival of Brooks Lee to get excited about.

And this isn't the "hey, maybe it will be better this year" type of wishful thinking we had through a lot of the 2010s. Remember, this is how last year went.

Warm thoughts, everyone.

Payroll is not the problem

 The Twins recently locked up their TV deal for the next year with Diamond Sports Group, which coincided with their flurry of recent transaction activity. The Twins with their maneuvering bolstered their bullpen and sorted out their infield depth. What else could you want? For some people, you might simply want the Twins to spend more money.

Recently, Aaron Gleeman noted that the payrolls of the American League Central are all in the bottom third of the league, with the White Sox, of all teams, leading the way. This has lead to wailing and gnashing of teeth, because despite what I said recently, the Twins are "too cheap", and it's "embarrassing" that the payroll isn't higher, according to some local fans and commentators. 

I've heard this opinion quite a bit from the Power Trip Morning show, in particular. As tastemakers in the market, they can certainly drive some of the conversation, and will likely make an easy scapegoat if things don't go well to start the season for a lot of fans, but despite this late offseason lament, there aren't many feasible means to simply increase the payroll, outside of one.

If they start giving raises and extensions to their otherwise cost controlled players, they would have more money locked into players expected to start and excel, like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers and Edouard Julien. Beyond that, Joe Ryan, Baily Ober and Jhoan Duran are quality major leaguers that will produce more value than their salary suggests. More than half of the regular lineup, at least 2 starting pitchers and the closer are still on rookie deals. Would you replace any of them with players that are still out there in free agency?

Yes, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery would be rotation upgrades, absolutely, no question. But they would also command deals that would take them into their mid to late 30s, and more than likely become a sunk cost at some point in the deal. Pitchers are a scarier prospect for this than any other position, and the Twins, even in the best of times, aren't going to bid in the top of the market for a free agent pitcher.

The Twins don't need an extra starter to win the AL Central this year. If the offense clicks like it should have last year, it will make up for the loss of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, especially if Chris Paddack stays healthy in the rotation this year. The Twins will have the capacity to acquire a pitcher on a shorter deal, for less money, thanks to prospect depth and stable finances as the playoff push approaches, and the Twins need them.

This would be a bigger deal, the payroll shortfall, if the AL Central wasn't so winnable, and the holes were significantly larger and with an easy fix that could be made with more salary. I don't think the Twins are done adding this offseason. I won't believe that until opening day, but it will just be moves that nibble at the edges, and the Twins are probably done taking big swings. The payroll won't go up much more than where it is at. At least for now. 

Of course Purdue is getting foul calls

 I wore a Purdue pullover while I was on vacation, and for any Purdue alums looking to make a quick friend, I insist you do the same. My wife was annoyed by the end of the day with our gleeful "Boiler Up!" greetings to otherwise complete strangers. It was a lot of fun.

Also, on the deck of a cruise ship, it's really tough to get any updates from the mainland. There was a network of Purdue fans, though, and one gentleman pulled me aside just to tell me about the overtime affair with Northwestern. That is how I heard that the Wildcats were frustrated with the number of foul calls that went against Northwestern vs those called on Purdue. 

Me and this random other tourist completely understood what was going on, even if Northwestern coach Chris Collins didn't want to acknowledge it. Zach Edey fundamentally changes the way opponents approach a game. There are always good players that you have to pay attention to, adjust your defense around or try to find secondary scoring on offense against lock up defenders, but Edey's presence does more.

Opponents aren't willing to go inside against Edey, while on offense, the ball often goes through him for Purdue. This can work with the modern game, where players are more willing to shoot from outside, but also, most fouls are called on drives to the basket, or during low post play. If Purdue is always in the low post, particularly with Edey, they are going to get calls. If their opponent isn't getting the ball inside, Purdue isn't going to foul them as often.

It's probably not an intentional strategy for Matt Painter's team, especially with shooters like Lance Jones, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer willing to bomb from outside, but it is a common sense consequence of having such a presence inside. I mean, a couple of strangers figured it out on a cruise deck, surely it should make sense in Evanston, too. Right? 

Bobby Witt Jr.s extension is something to worry about.

Looking specifically at the on the field repercussions, the news of Bobby Witt's signing an extension with the Royals, it's bad news for Minnesota. Witt seemed like he arrived as a star specifically in his last series with the Twins. His July and August were incredible, and if he is even a shadow of that, he's going to be a huge problem for the Twins and the rest of the AL Central for at least 11 years. 

All that said, it is nice that there are only on the field repercussions. The only thing it MEANS is that the Twins will have a fearsome opponent within their division until Witt is no longer fearsome, or MLB tinkers with the divisions and the Royals are moved out of the Twins' division, should that ever happen. There should be no wailing and gnashing of teeth, as Twins fans of previous generations have grown accustomed to, over the organization not spending money. 

For one direct comparison, the Twins have already paid their shortstop, and are paying him significantly more per annum. For several other comparisons, they have also extended Byron Buxton, the home grown superstar, and Pablo Lopez, the star starting pitcher. Despite the reduction in payroll, the Twins are still committed to and unbothered by long term commitments.

But also, and even more importantly, this is the third generation of Pohlad ownership, and the apple has fallen far from the tree. While Carl was striving to do anything to get out from under the Twins 20 years ago, Joe, the now leader of the Twins, is committing to the long term ownership and stewardship of the organization. 

It shouldn't come as a surprise that a grandchild should be so different from his grandfather. After all, I have never once flown a recon mission against the Germans. Families change, and the Pohlads have been evolving into baseball fans.

It's happened slowly and steadily, but the transition away from the "cheap Pohlads" narrative is complete. The Twins faced monetary limitations owing their TV situation, and it was clearly discussed among the fans and local media that there was a pause on roster activity until it was sorted. The payroll haircut is ascribed to the reduced contract, not to the Pohlads' purse strings. 

Now that the TV is sorted out, speculation on whether moves will happen are phrased as "will Falvine act?" not "will the Pohlads spend the money?" For better or worse, for the foreseeable future, Twins fans can concern themselves with the talent of the organization, and the product on the field. 

Which means we can just worry about Bobby Witt kicking our ass. 

Jorge Polanco trade befitted his time in the organization

 I should have seen it coming. We were on vacation, in a hotel, the night before a cruise, and one of my kids woke up sick. By the time we were getting on the boat, he had been medically cleared to board but was still very tired, and immediately after getting into the ship, the other kid got sick. Not 4 hours later, I was sick, just as we were leaving the global cellular network. 

I should have known THAT was when the Twins would make their big offseason move, when I was desperate for something to read, had a news story I'd been waiting for, and absolutely no internet connection. But I got the headlines, and I got the gist. Jorge Polanco was traded to Seattle for a 4 player (and cash) package. 

The deal included a top 100 prospect in Gabriel Gonzalez, a swingman veteran in Anthony DeSclafani, a top end reliever (for 3 years!) in Justin Topa and a guy named Darren. Considering the rumor mongers I have read considering a trade for Polanco being based around Topa alone, getting him as a part of a much larger package seemed like a huge win. 

Of course, the first new article I saw when I regained health, finished the cruise and stepped ashore was disappointment that the Twins didn't yet, nor did they seem likely to get, an ace. *sigh* All right. The Arraez-Lopez deal saw a much more valuable asset -- something the Twins didn't have this offseason, so Polanco was NEVER going to bring back a top arm. 

But he did bring back a top prospect, a late inning reliever, a long reliever/5th starter and Darren. There were fewer aces available, limited resources and the Twins, according to Baseball Trade Values, absolutely fleeced the Mariners, so it is all a matter of perspective. It can be a great move, but also not the singular avenue to solve a problem. or the intended means in which to solve said problem. 

Trading Polanco did solve some other problems as well. It clarified some of the positional logjam in the middle infield for the next two years. It strengthened the bullpen with a strong late inning arm in Topa or an inning eater in DeSclafani. It added prospect depth, with a right handed outfielder, which the Twins are short on. This could also be depth for a trade if the Twins are in contention, which they should be. There are other small gaps on the roster, including depth at first base, and oh look at that, the cash that was sent by the Mariners was used to sign Carlos Santana.

Jorge Polanco has been a steady, talented presence on the Twins roster. He's been the longest tenured player in the organization who made more under the radar contributions to the team than splashy highlights. His final contribution to the Twins mirrored his time in the organization, solving a lot of little problems, and not being appreciated for the value it brings.