Monday, August 14, 2023

Dallas Keuchel showed us why Pablo Lopez was such a great acquisition



The conversation has died down a little bit on whether or not the Arraez/Lopez trade was worthwhile for the Twins, but the recent series with the Phillies was another piece of information in favor of Minnesota. I'm not even talking about Lopez's great outing in the season. I'm talking about Dallas Keuchel's clunker.

A lot has been made of Luis Arraez's brilliant season with the Marlins. Earlier in the year, he was very seriously flirting with .400. Now, it is around .367, thanks in part to a .260 average so far in August. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez has almost singlehandedly kept the Twins on the right track. When the Twins were doing poorly, Lopez has come through with a dominant outing.

But this isn't a 1-1 comparison, even though, for the moment, Lopez is in a better stretch than Arraez. It's about what their absence would have meant. Bot the Twins and Marlins were able to reasonably patch over the absence of the player that they traded away. The Marlins have a deep well of starting pitchers and prospects. The Twins plugged Edouard Julien in at 2nd, and he seems like a contender for rookie of the year. Certainly, Julien is the most consistent player the Twins have had in the offense for a while.

The Marlins, even after adding Arraez, were aggressive at the deadline, adding, among others, Josh Bell and Jake Burger because they needed a serious jolt of offense. Even with Arraez, it wasn't enough for the Marlins to put together a capable offense. Would another left handed bat, no matter how much he got on base, really have made the Twins offense look more competent this season?

Now, if you subtracted Lopez from the rotation, you likely would have had more Dallas Keuchel for sooner. He was good in St. Paul, but has been a poor Major League pitcher for some time now. I fear his season opener against Philadelphia was more telling than his first. If the Twins don't have Lopez this season, then they would have more Keuchel starts. Or Louie Varland, or Simeon Woods-Richardson. Perhaps Cole Sands or Josh Winder get starts. The step back from Lopez to his replacement would be worse than Arraez to Julien. 

The Twins traded away a popular, very good player, but are better because of it. Just because the Twins won the trade doesn't mean the Marlins had to lose it either. 

Tuesday, August 8, 2023

The Twins are winning, even if they aren't doing what we want.

Last Saturday, the Twins enshrined Joe Mauer into the team hall of fame. Mauer is indisputably the most popular Twins since Kirby Puckett, and arguably the best Twins position player since Rod Carew. Maybe better than Carew. Whatever the case, Mauer is top 5 since the team moved to Minnesota. 

Mauer, of course, was not the player people expected him to be. He was a very good defender, first behind the plate and then at first base. He was an on base machine, nearly matching Carew's OBP, despite an average that was 20 points lower for his career. But he was 6'4 and strong, yet he wasn't ever really a power hitter.

Imagine the disrespect I felt, then, on the day Mauer was honored for his time with the Twins, the current Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers launched two dingers in the teams victory against the Diamondbacks. This win is part of the Twins 6-1 record since the trade deadline, where the Twins were generally inactive. Like Joe Mauer's power at the plate, it wasn't what fans expected and people were upset.

But like Joe Mauer at the plate, the results have been good. They just swept Arizona, took 2 out of three from the Cardinals and got their series in Detroit kicked off in dynamic fashion. Professional sports are a results based business, and with the results as they are, the inactivity looks to be merited so far.

Unlike Mauer's halcyon years, the Twins haven't been getting consistent productivity from their best players. The Twins would struggle when role players weren't producing, but they could often rely on Mauer or Justin Morneau, even Torii Hunter when they were needed, with the other role players coming up short in times of need. The 2023 Twins are the opposite.

Willi Castro continues to be one of the more valuable Twins, along with rookies Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. The other position players in the top 12 in WAR for the Twins, according to Baseball-Reference are Donovan Solano and Michael A Taylor. The highest WAR among a position player belongs to Jeffers, who saw the Twins sign Christian Vasquez to take most of the catching reps this season. 

The players the team expected to be the best on the roster haven;t been available, or haven't played to the best of their abilities yet. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Alex Kirilloff, Vasquez, or Jorge Polanco have fallen flat this season. The Twins haven't had any right handed production, but the players that should be the best in that role, Buxton and Correa have been the worst.

So without an idea of the best version of the Twins, it is a challenge to properly evaluate needs. Do you give up on all those players that are struggling? Max Kepler has demonstrated the value of good faith, and Jeffers has overtaken Vasquez with his break out. The front office has more patience and confidence in the roster than we do, and it seems as though they should be getting well soon.

Not that Jeffers or Kepler are unwell right now. We might not like the process, but if we learned anything from Joe Mauer, there are many ways to be successful.