The Vikings, if nothing else, had the most interesting draft day

 

The NFL is pervasive. The Timberwolves just swept their way into the second round of the NBA playoffs, their first ever experience being the sweeping team in a postseason series. The Twins are in the midst of a 7 game winning streak (and this is more or less a Twins blog!) and yet here I am, writing about the Vikings and their draft. 

Unless someone from one of your favorite college teams was drafted in the later rounds, it is unlikely that you have any insight into the later rounds. If you are very interested in the draft, or even fairly interested in college football, you will have a pretty good concept of how teams did in the first couple of rounds, or will at least be able to form an opinion on the matter. This is a long way to say that I'm only looking at the first two rounds of the Vikings draft. Maybe one of the late round picks will blossom as well.

For most of us, and really probably for the most part, it was a two person draft for the Vikings. They plucked JJ McCarthy to be their quarterback of the future, and Dallas Turner, a dynamic edge rusher, to replace, they hope, the production that they lost when Danielle Hunter went to Houston. There are plenty of mixed opinions on the arrangement. 

The Vikings pursuit of a quarterback was not a secret. Leading up to the draft, they traded into another 1st round pick, which many suspected would be paired with their original selection to move up as far as they could to nab the QB. That turned out to be an impossible task, as the top three teams, the Bears - after trading away Justin Fields, Commanders and Patriots - after trading away Mac Jones, all needed a quarterback.

The next several teams did not need a quarterback, but there were still at least two available that were intriguing. The behind the scenes manipulations and jockeying led the Vikings to be comfortable with staying where they were. Many of the teams ahead of them wanted to ensure they got the best players at their position, or others simply weren't expected to trade within their division (like the Chargers, who weren't going to trade with the Broncos or Raiders so they could get the QB of their future). The Vikings were in a good position.

And then, the Falcons, the same Falcons who selected Kurt Cousins, leading the Vikings to need a quarterback, selected Michael Penix Jr, taking away one of the QB options Minnesota and all the others had been relying on.

Similar to the Chargers not wanting to help their division rivals, the Bears, picking 9th, weren't going to help the Vikings out, and Minnesota was fortunate enough that Chicago didn't also help the Broncos or Raiders. The Vikings then did the right thing and made a swap with the Jets to prevent the other QB needy teams from moving up for JJ McCarthy. All of this is a preamble to say that the Vikings played this draft as well as they could have. 

My opinion of rookie quarterbacks is that teams will get more mileage out of them with a good foundation around them. Receivers are one thing - and Minnesota has one of the best corps in the league - but also, a veteran and solid offensive line will give young QBs more time to think in the faster game. There are questions about McCarthy, but he probably ended up in the best environment. 

This isn't a Christian Ponder situation. This is a team that has acclimated to winning, and will put McCarthy in the best spot to succeed. No, he may not start right away, or be able to be an elite thrower, but a well constructed offense, and a very good defense will keep him and his team in games, allowing him to learn without panicking. 

And on the topic of the defense, the other selection the Vikings made was on the defensive side of the ball, where edge rusher Dallas Turner was selected. Minnesota made a trade with Jacksonville to mov up an select Turner, a larger jump than the move for McCarthy. Turner was the third overall defensive player drafted. Remember, McCarthy was the 4th overall drafted quarterback. 

With one of the best defensive minds in the game in Brian Flores as the defensive coordinator, I am left with no choice but to believe that Turner was the player that would most significantly improve the Vikings defense next year, despite what other analysts or scouts would believe. The Vikings knew they had to get a quarterback, but it was icing on the cake, I'm sure, that they were also able to get one of the top defenders in this class.

The downside to this draft was how much they had to give up. They are left with only three picks next year, but conversely, ended up making their full 7 picks this year. It's not perfect, especially with next year's situation, but there is still time to add more picks next year, and I appreciate their ability to fill out a draft class in 2024. 

Most reports I have read opining on the Vikings draft class gave them a B- or a C or something in that range, which leans heavily into the fact that they had no day 2 selections. I think given the circumstances and the means at their disposal, Minnesota did an excellent job. They needed a quarterback for the future, and unlike many of the the other teams in a similar spot, they weren't bad enough last season to have a high choice in the draft. McCarthy was not the top prospect in the draft, but he is going to a good home, and the Vikings didn't ultimately have to leverage a whole lot to get him.

They were prepared to expend a bit to get him if they had to, however. Instead of using the resources to move up for a quarterback, the Vikings were able to use them to select an edge rusher who many are already picking to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. I hope Minnesota fans are applauding the fact that, instead of resting on their laurels, the Vikings leapt at an opportunity.

The Vikings maybe didn't have enough selections, and there is obviously going to be a difference of opinion on Turner, and drafting a quarterback, let alone the 4th quarterback, is always going to raise an eyebrow, but from my outside perspective, it looks like the Vikings did what they had to, and made the most of their situation.

Disproving some common Twins myths

 

I'm including the full highlights of Saturday's game in order to confirm a couple of rumors that weren't in fact, true.

1) The Twins will actually win another game this season. This game ended a 5 game losing streak in which the team looked like they were in a lot of trouble. Of course, their last three wins were against the Tigers, so the dream is that they can even win a game against someone other than Detroit soon. We can keep our fingers crossed.

2) The front office HAS developed a pitcher. Bailey Ober came up through the Falvey/Levine system, after being a 12th round pick, and now is one of the three fully reliable pitchers in the rotation. Louie Varland still could get there, if he shakes his recent rough start, and failing that, could still go back to the bullpen, where he was dominant. That's 40% of the rotation! Joe Ryan made his first start as a Twin, and Pablo Lopez is going to be here a while as well, and say what you will, but I think it takes talent to add to a rotation no matter how you do it. 

Now, as yet to be proven, is whether or not Minnesota can win two games in a row, let alone two games started by home grown talent. Varland takes the mound Sunday afternoon to find out. 

Bad luck doesn't explain everything.

I’ve started attempting to write a post about the Twins struggles with injuries about 5 days ago. I was going to note that they had still been surprisingly competitive. Then, they went ahead and got swept in Baltimore, and continued to look flat in last night’s series opener with the Tigers. So much for being competitive.

There are a great many issues with the Twins, and some of them won’t be resolved with health. There is no offensive depth on the roster outside of a couple of positions, and even at full health, there would be concerns about filling out the roster with more competent at bats when players need a day off. There is also a fundamental area of misfortune that seems to have settled on the Twins that is different from last season.

The injury bug has burrowed deeper on the organization this season, as compared to last, where the injury concerns were more broad. Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda got hurt, so Bailey Ober and Louie Varland stepped up. The Twins lost Jorge Polanco, so Edouard Julien took on the role. No Byron Buxton? How about Michael A. Taylor?

Now a big issue Minnesota has had was not only the injuries in the Major League roster, but also the concurrent injuries to start the year in St. Paul. Brooks Lee, for example, was likely to be the first call up for the Twins if injuries happened, but then he was on the IL before the season started. Max Kepler was hurt early, and the St. Paul Saints were also short Trevor Larnach. Almost immediately, the Twins had to dig deeper when finding people to take important roles.

Austin Martin was expected to be a contributor this year, but not to the level he’s been asked to so far this year. Jose Miranda’s star faded last season, but he is back and playing somewhat regularly. Larnach is healthy again, but I don’t think anyone expects him to be a savior

Again, this is only a small part of the problem. Last season, part of the solution to the early slump and injury bug was Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro stepping up, and both have been atrocious. Edouard Julien hasn’t quite figured out his bat this year, and Christian Vasquez, fully in the role of back up catcher, has been terrible at the plate.

The Twins are going to have to be much better on offense if they want to pull out of their funk. Injuries have certainly been a huge issue, and not just on the Major League roster, but in St Paul as well. It’s a tougher burden to bear, and the healthy players aren’t bearing it well.

Another slow start with a lot of injuries

 Existence as a Twins fan usually involves getting more or less excited about some player, then seeing those hopes dashed almost immediately. The Twins don't so much string you along, as break your heart very quickly. I guess that's nice in a way. This year, Royce Lewis got hurt in the first game, and Carlos Correa got hurt only 10 games later. This is compounded with all the bullpen aches and pains that led up to the season.

Naturally, at the beginning of the season, Lewis was heralded as a breakout player, Carlos Correa was healthy and would get a bounceback player, while the bullpen was seen as a real strength of the roster, so of course those were all players that kept getting nicked up. 

This isn't a surprise at this point. It seems like the Twins are troubled by injury annually, and always early in the season. We speculate on who might fill in should someone get injured, and then we end up with a full season of Bailey Ober because Kenta Maeda got hurt right away. Austin Martin has been on the roster and playing nearly every game already.

Also this season, we've been granted another dreadful start. At the beginning of today's game, three players in the lineup started with an OPS below .300, which is actually pretty terrible. It's an unfortunate trend for as long as I can remember. I think over the course of my nearly 20 years (Jesus, 20 years?) of writing about the Twins online, I've had a nearly annual "who cares about the pitching if they can't hit?" post that comes out this time of year.

One trend this year, however, is that their "Clutch" rating isn't that far below normal. Since 2021, the Twins have the lowest aggregate "clutch" rating, according to Fangraphs, in all of baseball. Essentially, it shows how much better or worse a team does in high leverage situations compared to their normal performance. This should be a stat that levels off over time, and the Twins simply haven't leveled off from their awful situational performances since the pandemic.

This year though, they have hit nearly as well in high leverage situations as in regular play. Unfortunately, that's only because the Twins haven't hit during any situation. They went on an 0-28 streak with runners in scoring position, and it wasn't THAT much worse than they normally hit. 

These three things, the early season injuries, the slow offensive starts and the poor performance in the clutch can all be attributed to bad luck, small samples or variance in their own ways. But the trend is there. This happens every year, and there isn't really an answer (aside from a curse). Maybe it's cultural, or has to do with offseason workouts. 

Back when the Twins were regularly getting to the playoffs and turning into pumpkins, it was clear something about the team was different when they got there. I insisted it was time for a change at the top, to change the team mindset. If the Twins can't get to the playoffs this year, and this season opening funk is a big part of that, it might be time for a change in 2024 as well. There is something off here, and that's the only place I can think to look.

Local talent is staying home

I think there is always an urge for kids who have an opportunity to break free from their parents. Some kids want to go achieve on their own, some just want to get some independence. When it comes to college choices, there are those who want to get a new start and, I don't know, go to Purdue, away from any of their other high school classmates or family But this completely random example is not the norm, I am told. 

While there is an urge to spread wings, most don't want to go too far. A weekend drive home, closeness to friends, comfort with a region, things like that drive that desire. Who knows where that has put the regions athletes throughout the last 50 or so years. Sure, you could go play for the Gophers, otherwise your options were in lower levels or further from home. 

Minnesota for the longest time, had only the University as an option for D-1 athletes. The next closest D-1 school to the Metro was Wisconsin, who rose to prominence about as Minnesota faded. This was certainly aided by help from athletes from the Twin Cities, some of whom may not have really wanted to stray from home.

The Dakotas were even more remote and it's top athletes had to travel even farther. There were no D-1 Schools until the "States" made the football leap. Now there are 4 D-1 Dakota schools. All of the football teams are above average for FCS standards, thanks to being able to attract the best athletes in a broad region without much D-1 competition. Most are pretty decent on the court as well.

Now that the best players from the Dakotas (save for the stray player that ends up at Alabama) or outstate Minnesota have more local destinations if they don't want to leave the region, but also want to play at the top level of their sport. It almost seems like lately, Minnesota has been too obvious a choice, with St. Thomas on the rise, along with neighbors to the west. 

Granted, the Gophers compete in the Big Ten, and it's tough to attract talent at a national level to compete with national level programs, but at a regional level, local talent can compete in mid-major conferences. Obviously the North and South Dakota State success stories are evident on the football field. On the basketball court, the Dakotas and St. Thomas occupied 4 of the top 5 spots in the standings in the Summit League. This is generally an apt description for the Summit League standings.

There aren't other major conference options in Minnesota outside of the Gophers, and they aren't yet a national draw for talent, and a lot of the top tier talent leaks out to other programs. The mid-level talent is now already staying at home, just not with the Gophers, who are likely overlooking those athletes with more ambitious recruiting goals. In the last couple of decades, though, regionally relevant players have been given more D-1 options, and are taking those opportunities. 

The Twins need to hit

I think the local panic meter hit 11 after Bailey Ober's disastrous outing on Sunday in Kansas City. As the third starter in a rotation that lost key components in the offseason, then the bullpen lost key elements in the preseason, it appeared as the pitching staff is going to be a real problem. 

Long term, it will sort itself out. There is enough at the top of the rotation, and steady and reliable options further down in Louis Varland, a healthy Chris Paddack and yes, even Bailey Ober. The bullpen is yet to be a problem, and will be reinforced soon. Ultimately, though, Minnesotans spend too much time worrying about the pitching.

Last year, the Twins had inarguably the best pitching staff they have had in a generation, and ultimately won 87 games. In 2019, their pitching was worse than it is now (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda were the top, but Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez were regulars in a fairly healthy unit) but managed to win over 100 games for the first time since 1965.

Why? Because they were pounding the heck out of the ball. That was the year that the Twins set home run records and piled on runs nearly every game. Regular season success coincides with the ability to score runs. The Twins were lucky to get to the postseason because of the moribund AL Central, then, as the adage goes, they won in the postseason because pitching wins championships.

To start the season, the Twins have cobbled together 11 runs. 9 of which came in the first two games of the season. Through their first 4 games, only 4 players, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Manuel Margot and Matt Wallner have wOBA above .320, considered to be "average", and Lewis is out, Wallner is a platoon player and Buxton and Margot play the same position. 

If you prefer counting stats, Lewis is the only one with a home run, despite facing the murderers row of pitchers that the Royals offer, and Jakob Junis, a former Royal. It's crucial to get Lewis bat taking cuts, but it shouldn't be THIS crucial.

In the projections for the season, too many people have discounted the Twins chances. Sure, plenty of people have the Twins winning the AL Central, but at or below the win total they had in 2023. I insisted that they would not, because Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa would be back to form, Christian Vazquez would hit better and they would have full seasons featuring Lewis, Edouard Julien, Wallner and Ryan Jeffers. 

It's yet to click at the plate through the first handful of games, and injuries to Lewis and a scare to Max Kepler surely don't help. If the Twins are going to reach the levels that I believe they can, they are going to need to produce more at the plate. If they can't score even 3 runs a game, it won't matter how good their pitching is. 

It was bucolic for 2 full innings

 The Twins got on the board in the first inning with a solo bomb from Royce Lewis, and everyone was feeling good. Even when Maikel Franco tied the game as the first batter for Kansas City, nobody panicked. The Twins would later go ahead in the 3rd inning, and didn't relinquish it, because Pablo Lopez was just that good.

The regular season started and prediction season ended. This morning, I was having conversations with people and explaining that I thought that the team would be well over the predicted 84-87 mark some experts have been saying. Sure, the rotation took a step back, but the lineup should be more improved this year than the rotation is weakened. 

The Twins had Pablo Lopez today, and will have decent starters for the next 4 games as well. Let's say they did get that elusive top of the rotation starter (Sonny Gray last year). That would still leave 3 games that are not pitched by elite pitchers, those 40% of games the top of the rotation is working are lessened by days lost to injuries. Having a top rotation is crucial in the postseason, but through the grind of the regular season, it is much more important to have a consistent offense.

In 2019, the Twins won 101 games by relentlessly launching the ball to the stratosphere, all while featuring a rotation of Jose Berrios and.... others. Last season, the Twins had one of the best rotations they have had in decades, and managed to win 87 games, but they did claim a series in the playoffs. As was my original premise, the Twins are going to be better on offense, and won't be much worse in the rotation. More wins this year than last year.

Of course, then the game happened. Lewis tweaked his quad, and it is not yet known if the injury is serious. Later in the game, Max Kepler fouled a ball off of his knee. Kepler is not likely to need the IL, though Lewis is still a concern. The Twins have many young prospects ready to get time with the big league club, like Brooks Lee -- oh wait, Lee is on the AAA lL.

I revise my opinion, as I didn't take into account the MOA curse. The Twins will be lucky to win 65 game. 

We made it

 

After a long offseason that started with an unclear television future (and one that remains unclear) with little action in the offseason market, followed by a nearly ceaseless string of bullpen injuries, we are here, ready to watch real, regular season baseball on Bally Sports (if you can) or following along on the radio.

First pitch is 3:30 this afternoon from Kansas City, with Cory Provus on the TV mic, and Kris Atteberry on the radio at WCCO. I don't care if there is snow on the ground, summer is here. 

A suboptimal spring training update

 We've been humming along, getting ready for the season to start, with optimism continuing to grow as the season approached. This is always the most dangerous time to be a Twins fan. When things are going well, those same things are about to immediately go not so well.

And then boom, all of a sudden you get a MLBTR alert for this. That's three members of the pitching staff starting the season on the shelf. One of them, Anthony DeSclafani looks like he will be out for the entire season.  This is just another sign that we can't trust doctors in San Francisco (see: Sam Dyson, Carlos Correa).

Fortunately, this just puts the Twins back where they expected to be before the offseason began. Louie Varland will be the 5th starter, until depth is needed. At that point, Brett Headrick and Simeon Woods-Richardson will be called upon to round out the rotation. It isn't ideal, but it wasn't fully unanticipated.

There are also a couple of relievers on the shelf. Caleb Thielbar has been touch and go all spring, and the Twins added Steven Okert for left handed depth in the offseason. Kody Funderburk will likely break camp with the team as well, providing some more left handed depth. 

All of this is obfuscating the big news, which is that Jhoan Duran was among the players to go on the IL Fortunately, Duran's injury also seems to be the most mild, and he should return some time in May. In the mean time, however, losing one of the best relievers in baseball is a tough situation.

It tinkers with the rhythm of the bullpen. For example, Griffin Jax may be asked to close games, instead of setting them up, while a middle reliever used to longer outings might be working shorter, higher leverage appearances. And then when Duran comes back, these changes are going to have to be shuffled back, with players not getting a chance to settle into their role. 

This is where some of those losses are compounded, as well. Last season, Louie Varland stepped into a relief role late in the season and in the postseason, and was excellent. In a situation where the Twins might prefer another power arm in the bullpen, Varland would be a viable option were he not needed in the rotation.

Ultimately, the Twins will need to grind out these first couple of weeks. They might be fortunate, and the need for a closer will be limited, or the difference between Duran and Jax isn't felt deeply for the few times Jax might step into the role. Varland and DeSclafani likely weren't going to produce much differently anyway, though the injury impacts the depth of the rotation. If they do want to make a move, signing Michael Lorenzen, who is still on the market, would give the Twins a versatile pitcher that could bolster either part of the pitching staff if an injury strikes again. The season doesn't start for the Twins for a little more than a week, so don't rule anything out with this front office.

The Twins got their first taste of reality amid the overwhelming optimism, and really, it wasn't as bad as it could have been.

I think this is what Instagram is for?

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 This is just the most recent in the @Twins question of the day series, and frankly, they are all fantastic, and all fairly telling of the relationship the players all have with each other, the dynamic of the clubhouse and generally, the sense of humor each player has.

As we get closer to the season, it's good to see the team is loose and ready for action. We're all just waiting for the season to start. Why not be a little weird. 

The Twins bounce back year

 I think if you asked any Twins fans who the most valuable player on the team last year, I think everyone would easily point to Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez. It makes the consternation over Gray's departure much more understandable. How do you replace the most productive player on the team? The fact that the Twins seemingly didn't even try is a real puzzler.

Let's look at it from a different angle, though. Do you know who the most valuable position player was, at least in terms of WAR on Baseball-Reference? Would you have guessed Ryan Jeffers? Would you have also guessed that the next 5 players on the list are all returning this year? And further, would the names Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have been the next names on your list?

Jeffers, Julien, Lewis and Wallner are all ascendent players. The last three weren't even on the roster for the better part of the year, and thrived when they got here. Jeffers was expected to be Christian Vazquez's back up. Undoubtedly, with a full compliment of at bats and expectations of productivity, at least half of these players are going to be even more productive in 2024.

Oh, and you know what? Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton didn't even appear on this list. Correa and Buxton of 2022 would have cleared Jeffers. Correa would have even cleared Gray, and Buxton would have slotted between Gray and Lopez, and would have been #1 and #2 most productive on the team. There is a reasonable expectation that with health, and both appear fully healthy, they will augment the lineup this season.

The Twins replaced two other members of the roster more directly. Carlos Santana takes the spot of Donovan Solano, while Manuel Margot replaces Michael A. Taylor. Santana is probably a shade better than Solano, while Margot may take a step back, but that speaks more to the expectations for Buxton's health than anything. 

Depth is a wild card. There are several prospects on the cusp of arriving on the scene. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and a returning Jose Miranda can all add a little bit of their own input on the lineup. Even healthy Alex Kirilloff, paired with Santana and a splash of Trevor Larnach will help ensure there won't be many protracted offensive slumps.

Even before you start getting to the depth, which is much more of a lottery ticket, consider the roster they do have. consider the very probable bounce back campaign for the two super star players, who are only 29 and 30, and the continued development of the young contributors, and its not hard to see this as a formidable lineup in 2024.

The Twins really like Chris Paddack

 So much of this offseason has been about money, and specifically, how much the Twins aren't spending, and how much, even more specifically, they aren't spending on free agent pitchers. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all left, but three lower cost, younger players off of the 2023 rotation are still suiting up in 2024: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

The other name expected to take a big role in the Twins rotation next year is Chris Paddack, who the Twins acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade of a couple years ago. While Emilio Pagan had a couple of years in the Twins' bullpen, it was Paddack who attracted the Twins to the deal in the first place. After nearly two full seasons out with Tommy John surgery, Paddack is ready to go in 2024.

In two seasons as a member of the Twins, Paddack has been worth 1 win above replacement, despite only having only 27 innings of work. Paddack hasn't been dissimilar to the pitcher he was in San Diego, either, and while there would will always be concern about his health, Paddack's biggest issue affecting his numbers with Minnesota has been a high batting average on balls in play. His raw numbers, the ERA, should settle in lower than what it's been if his elbow has properly healed. 

Even while Paddack was on the shelf, the Twins signed him to an extension in anticipation of this season. There has been a lot of consternation about the Twins' lack of an addition to the rotation, and a lot of it was blamed on payroll. Part of it should be blamed on the expectations for Paddack to be a vital part of the rotation. It has been in the works for two years, and even i the fans aren't yet fully on board, the front office believes that Paddack is at least the Maeda replacement, if not the Sonny Gray replacement.

With Lopez and the increasing veteran stature of Ryan and Ober already in the front of the rotation, there is no pressure on Paddack to fulfill that role at the top of the rotation either, at least not externally. At the very least, the Twins already have Paddack penciled in as a very good 4th starter, but I have to believe the expect so much more. 

Twins execute their patented Spring Training trade

 

One thing I simply love about this Twins front office is their ability to constantly keep me guessing. There were, of course all sorts of signs that the organization was looking for right handed depth. They were rumored to be in the market for Enrique Hernandez, Adam Duvall or a reunion with Michael A Taylor to complete that quest and instead of simply making an easy free agency signing, they swung a trade with the Dodgers for Manuel Margot. Surprise! 

Margot offers the Twins exactly what they were looking for. Margot offers a little bit of defensive versatility in the outfield, from the right side of the plate and will only cost the Twins $4m in salary this season. They also swapped prospects, with both being at about the same prospect level rating, but the Twins new player, Rayne Doncon, potentially being a slower burn than Noah Miller, who went to LA.

Margot is probably exactly what the Twins needed to round out their offensive side of the roster. They needed a right handed bat that could platoon with Matt Wallner or defensively in center when Buxton isn't able to play. Margot has some injury history, but getting him off of the Tampa Bay turf will do a world of good for him. 

The obvious comparison is between Margot and Taylor, since Taylor was the featured center fielder last year, and had a career year in the role. Taylor wanted to come back, and seemed to be a good clubhouse fit, but the mechanics of a reunion simply wouldn't have worked as well as the deal for Margot. 

Taylor will rightfully want and earn $10-12m per season, and perhaps a two year deal. After a career year at the plate last year, he would likely also want a starting spot, if he could find one, which is not as likely to be available in Minnesota this year with Buxton coming in fully healthy. For his part, Margot profiles as a similar hitter to Taylor, but with fewer strikeouts, which is great news for everyone sick of the Twins striking out all the time last year. 

This works out well for the Twins, Margot (who is still getting paid his $10m salary) and even Taylor, who will get a good opportunity for a salary he earned, just not in Minnesota. 

My kingdom for a right handed bat

Earlier in the offseason, I wrote about the Twins building Target Field, a park that seemed to have been built for righties, then putting together a roster that never seemed to have many right handed thumpers. The two top paid players on the team are right handed, but nobody would ever call Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton "bat first". 

Really, the big right handed thumper in the lineup is Ryan Jeffers, with newly signed Carlos Santana also adding a bit of oomph from the right side of the plate, but none of the depth, nearly anywhere, can provide an alternative. 

The Twins traded Luis Arraez - a lefty - last season in an effort to deal from a strength to support a weakness. This offseason, they traded Jorge Polanco, a switch hitter, primarily to give Edouard Julien - a lefty - more at bats. 

In the last few weeks, ever since the Twins had their awakening and started making moves, the Twins have made it pretty clear where their priorities lie. No, they aren't going to spend a ton of money on a starting pitcher. They are laser focused on making their bench more right handed. Finally, someone is listening to me.

They added to an already strong bullpen by trading sparkplug Nick Gordon - a lefty - to the Marlins, receiving Steven Okert - ironically, another lefty, but out of the bullpen. Gordon was squeezed out by the existing infielders, the outfield depth, and by the fact that the Twins are really looking for a right handed bat to fill out their bench.

Even though a lot of writers and more hangdog fans are focusing on the fact that the Twins have openly said there won't be a large bump to the payroll before the season starts, I am focused on the fact that the Twins clearly aren't done shopping.

Minnesota has been tied to Michael A. Taylor for a reunion after Taylor had a very productive season last year. Taylor has wanted a two year deal, but as time runs out on the offseason, it is more likely that he will be willing to take a 1 year deal to give the left handed corner outfielders a right handed complement.

Even as Gordon was sent to Miami, the Twins were also considering, and are one of the finalists for, veteran utility guy Enrique "Kiké" Hernandez, a veteran who hits on the right side of the plate.

The Twins might not have the same high payroll of last year, but don't be surprised by at least one more late roster move. 

The Twins are ahead of the competition

We think about the offseason within a vacuum. Are the Twins better than they were in the previous season? Certainly not from the mound, maybe on offense, because of the natural progression of their young players. The flashy headlines weren't there for the Twins this year, after a couple of years at the center of the baseball world. 

We knew there were flaws with the Twins, and they were unaddressed through trade or free agency, while teams like the Dodgers and Yankees took big swings. This is a controversial take, but: It doesn't matter.

The Twins need to win the AL Central to make the playoffs. As of last season, the Twins were 9 games better than their nearest competition. Two teams were more than 25 games out from the Twins, including the Kansas City Royals, who were also active this offseason. 

Did the Twins get 9 games worse this off season? I don't think so. The Royals surely didn't get 25 games better even with all their moves. The White Sox aren't any better either, while the Guardians are probably going in the wrong direction. That leaves the Tigers to really be concerned about.

So are the Twins still better than the Tigers? Did the Tigers make up the ground, if the Twins didn't lose that ability? There is something to be said for their youth and natural development of a roster that is mostly under the age of 25, but did they build a better roster too? They lost their top veteran starter in Eduardo Rodriguez and replaced him with Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty. 

I would say that the Tigers may be in line for a break out, but so too are many players on the Twins roster. The Twins could certainly be a better team, but to get through the season, they are good enough now. 

Snow in time for spring training

 Just in time for the biggest (and nearly the first) snow of the year, we also got the first reports to Spring Training. We did it everyone, we made it to Spring Training. I'm actually thankful for this snow that we got, because it really makes baseball seem special. It seems so distant right now, but it's so close. 

It was a slow start to the offseason, but it really picked up lately. A lot of the fan base is lamenting the weaker rotations, but national writers are enamored with the bullpen, and prospect followers are excited about the young talent that is going to have more time under their belt; Eddy Julien, Royce Lewis, even Jose Miranda is primed to come back. Then there is the potential arrival of Brooks Lee to get excited about.

And this isn't the "hey, maybe it will be better this year" type of wishful thinking we had through a lot of the 2010s. Remember, this is how last year went.

Warm thoughts, everyone.

Payroll is not the problem

 The Twins recently locked up their TV deal for the next year with Diamond Sports Group, which coincided with their flurry of recent transaction activity. The Twins with their maneuvering bolstered their bullpen and sorted out their infield depth. What else could you want? For some people, you might simply want the Twins to spend more money.

Recently, Aaron Gleeman noted that the payrolls of the American League Central are all in the bottom third of the league, with the White Sox, of all teams, leading the way. This has lead to wailing and gnashing of teeth, because despite what I said recently, the Twins are "too cheap", and it's "embarrassing" that the payroll isn't higher, according to some local fans and commentators. 

I've heard this opinion quite a bit from the Power Trip Morning show, in particular. As tastemakers in the market, they can certainly drive some of the conversation, and will likely make an easy scapegoat if things don't go well to start the season for a lot of fans, but despite this late offseason lament, there aren't many feasible means to simply increase the payroll, outside of one.

If they start giving raises and extensions to their otherwise cost controlled players, they would have more money locked into players expected to start and excel, like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers and Edouard Julien. Beyond that, Joe Ryan, Baily Ober and Jhoan Duran are quality major leaguers that will produce more value than their salary suggests. More than half of the regular lineup, at least 2 starting pitchers and the closer are still on rookie deals. Would you replace any of them with players that are still out there in free agency?

Yes, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery would be rotation upgrades, absolutely, no question. But they would also command deals that would take them into their mid to late 30s, and more than likely become a sunk cost at some point in the deal. Pitchers are a scarier prospect for this than any other position, and the Twins, even in the best of times, aren't going to bid in the top of the market for a free agent pitcher.

The Twins don't need an extra starter to win the AL Central this year. If the offense clicks like it should have last year, it will make up for the loss of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, especially if Chris Paddack stays healthy in the rotation this year. The Twins will have the capacity to acquire a pitcher on a shorter deal, for less money, thanks to prospect depth and stable finances as the playoff push approaches, and the Twins need them.

This would be a bigger deal, the payroll shortfall, if the AL Central wasn't so winnable, and the holes were significantly larger and with an easy fix that could be made with more salary. I don't think the Twins are done adding this offseason. I won't believe that until opening day, but it will just be moves that nibble at the edges, and the Twins are probably done taking big swings. The payroll won't go up much more than where it is at. At least for now. 

Of course Purdue is getting foul calls

 I wore a Purdue pullover while I was on vacation, and for any Purdue alums looking to make a quick friend, I insist you do the same. My wife was annoyed by the end of the day with our gleeful "Boiler Up!" greetings to otherwise complete strangers. It was a lot of fun.

Also, on the deck of a cruise ship, it's really tough to get any updates from the mainland. There was a network of Purdue fans, though, and one gentleman pulled me aside just to tell me about the overtime affair with Northwestern. That is how I heard that the Wildcats were frustrated with the number of foul calls that went against Northwestern vs those called on Purdue. 

Me and this random other tourist completely understood what was going on, even if Northwestern coach Chris Collins didn't want to acknowledge it. Zach Edey fundamentally changes the way opponents approach a game. There are always good players that you have to pay attention to, adjust your defense around or try to find secondary scoring on offense against lock up defenders, but Edey's presence does more.

Opponents aren't willing to go inside against Edey, while on offense, the ball often goes through him for Purdue. This can work with the modern game, where players are more willing to shoot from outside, but also, most fouls are called on drives to the basket, or during low post play. If Purdue is always in the low post, particularly with Edey, they are going to get calls. If their opponent isn't getting the ball inside, Purdue isn't going to foul them as often.

It's probably not an intentional strategy for Matt Painter's team, especially with shooters like Lance Jones, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer willing to bomb from outside, but it is a common sense consequence of having such a presence inside. I mean, a couple of strangers figured it out on a cruise deck, surely it should make sense in Evanston, too. Right? 

Bobby Witt Jr.s extension is something to worry about.

Looking specifically at the on the field repercussions, the news of Bobby Witt's signing an extension with the Royals, it's bad news for Minnesota. Witt seemed like he arrived as a star specifically in his last series with the Twins. His July and August were incredible, and if he is even a shadow of that, he's going to be a huge problem for the Twins and the rest of the AL Central for at least 11 years. 

All that said, it is nice that there are only on the field repercussions. The only thing it MEANS is that the Twins will have a fearsome opponent within their division until Witt is no longer fearsome, or MLB tinkers with the divisions and the Royals are moved out of the Twins' division, should that ever happen. There should be no wailing and gnashing of teeth, as Twins fans of previous generations have grown accustomed to, over the organization not spending money. 

For one direct comparison, the Twins have already paid their shortstop, and are paying him significantly more per annum. For several other comparisons, they have also extended Byron Buxton, the home grown superstar, and Pablo Lopez, the star starting pitcher. Despite the reduction in payroll, the Twins are still committed to and unbothered by long term commitments.

But also, and even more importantly, this is the third generation of Pohlad ownership, and the apple has fallen far from the tree. While Carl was striving to do anything to get out from under the Twins 20 years ago, Joe, the now leader of the Twins, is committing to the long term ownership and stewardship of the organization. 

It shouldn't come as a surprise that a grandchild should be so different from his grandfather. After all, I have never once flown a recon mission against the Germans. Families change, and the Pohlads have been evolving into baseball fans.

It's happened slowly and steadily, but the transition away from the "cheap Pohlads" narrative is complete. The Twins faced monetary limitations owing their TV situation, and it was clearly discussed among the fans and local media that there was a pause on roster activity until it was sorted. The payroll haircut is ascribed to the reduced contract, not to the Pohlads' purse strings. 

Now that the TV is sorted out, speculation on whether moves will happen are phrased as "will Falvine act?" not "will the Pohlads spend the money?" For better or worse, for the foreseeable future, Twins fans can concern themselves with the talent of the organization, and the product on the field. 

Which means we can just worry about Bobby Witt kicking our ass. 

Jorge Polanco trade befitted his time in the organization

 I should have seen it coming. We were on vacation, in a hotel, the night before a cruise, and one of my kids woke up sick. By the time we were getting on the boat, he had been medically cleared to board but was still very tired, and immediately after getting into the ship, the other kid got sick. Not 4 hours later, I was sick, just as we were leaving the global cellular network. 

I should have known THAT was when the Twins would make their big offseason move, when I was desperate for something to read, had a news story I'd been waiting for, and absolutely no internet connection. But I got the headlines, and I got the gist. Jorge Polanco was traded to Seattle for a 4 player (and cash) package. 

The deal included a top 100 prospect in Gabriel Gonzalez, a swingman veteran in Anthony DeSclafani, a top end reliever (for 3 years!) in Justin Topa and a guy named Darren. Considering the rumor mongers I have read considering a trade for Polanco being based around Topa alone, getting him as a part of a much larger package seemed like a huge win. 

Of course, the first new article I saw when I regained health, finished the cruise and stepped ashore was disappointment that the Twins didn't yet, nor did they seem likely to get, an ace. *sigh* All right. The Arraez-Lopez deal saw a much more valuable asset -- something the Twins didn't have this offseason, so Polanco was NEVER going to bring back a top arm. 

But he did bring back a top prospect, a late inning reliever, a long reliever/5th starter and Darren. There were fewer aces available, limited resources and the Twins, according to Baseball Trade Values, absolutely fleeced the Mariners, so it is all a matter of perspective. It can be a great move, but also not the singular avenue to solve a problem. or the intended means in which to solve said problem. 

Trading Polanco did solve some other problems as well. It clarified some of the positional logjam in the middle infield for the next two years. It strengthened the bullpen with a strong late inning arm in Topa or an inning eater in DeSclafani. It added prospect depth, with a right handed outfielder, which the Twins are short on. This could also be depth for a trade if the Twins are in contention, which they should be. There are other small gaps on the roster, including depth at first base, and oh look at that, the cash that was sent by the Mariners was used to sign Carlos Santana.

Jorge Polanco has been a steady, talented presence on the Twins roster. He's been the longest tenured player in the organization who made more under the radar contributions to the team than splashy highlights. His final contribution to the Twins mirrored his time in the organization, solving a lot of little problems, and not being appreciated for the value it brings. 

Congratulations Joe Mauer, congratulations Minnesota

 

As I'm sure you've heard by this point, Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer has been elected to the Hall of Fame on his first appearance on the ballot. It is a deserved accolade for a brilliant player with a tremendous peak before concussions changed who he was as a player. It's also a reflection on the quality of person he is.

And congrats to all of the fans of Joe Mauer, who know longer have to get into pitched debates on his worthiness of his contract, his trips to all star games or his candidacy for the Hall of Fame. He made it. He's there. 

And now we can all hear stories about how brilliant a player he was, his tremendous peak and the quality of person he is. Congrats, Minnesota, we can stop fighting about Joe Mauer, and just appreciate him.

Back where we started

 The start of the offseason saw the Twins part ways with long time broadcaster Dick Bremer. Everyone was sad about losing a local legend like that, but I insisted it had less to do with Bremer, and more about the Twins vision for the future. If bidders knew what to expect, they would be more willing to secure the rights to air their games. 

It seemed to me that there may even be some sort of a bidding war for the Twins' rights, and they were in a good spot, out from under Diamond Sports, just as the company collapsed. There were other local options. WFTC, WUCW and 45 have all aired sports before, including local athletics, and all were backed by major network affiliates.

Then, as we all know by now, we waited. There were interminable stories about trades the Twins could make or free agents they could sign, but no actual action. Every transaction brought a new round of those articles, with each local writer seeing the potential salvation of the offseason on the horizoin, still remaining among the available free agents and trade candidates. 

Nothing has changed. Those articles continue to stand as reliable clickbait, the Twins still had the same logjams and the same areas that needed improvement, and free agents continue to find new teams. Derek Falvey has commented on the lateness with which the trade market has heated up in recent years, but it still feels like we are all waiting on the TV deal to fall into place before anything actually happens. 

Recently, news broke that Diamond Sports might be pulling out of their death spiral thanks to a cash infusion from Amazon. Amazon will purchase the streaming rights that Diamond Sports owns, and presumably, will have access to regional sports network streaming opportunities in the future.

That means that in the end, the most likely suitor for the Twins television rights is the company that held them in the past. Now, though, they are getting those rights without the long time voice of the team, and the realization that there isn't much competition for said rights. But maybe now we can start the offseason.

Twins think globally, add prospects

 

The Twins are reliable in one area of the offseason. They can usually attract a pretty good international prospect every winter. The eventual maturation of these players may leave something to be desired, but based strictly on prospect rank, the Twins are often found among signers of top ten prospects.

This year, that prospect is Daiber De Los Santos, a shortstop that was #8 among this year's international prospects. De Los Santos is regarded as a top defensive prospect, so good that his star has risen this high despite a refined offensive game. 

They also added the #39 prospect Eduardo Beltre, an outfielder who has more projectability as an offensive threat. What makes his signing truly remarkable is that his right handed. It's crazy to think about, but in about 5 years or so, the Twins could have a big right handed bat, if Beltre pans out. 

All of these are big ifs, of course, and that is the lottery contained within international free agency. There is less material to observe when scouting these players as compared to the draft. International free agents are younger than even the youngest draftees, and cameras aren't as pervasive at events in Latin America as they are in the US. International free agency is much more about projection and physical development than even the draft is. 

If you are looking for an inexpensive method to adding a superstar, this is the way to do it. Because of the patience it requires, and the lack of guarantee, it isn't necessarily the first option for bigger market teams. Hitting on a couple of these signings are crucial to the viability of small market teams.

Not for this year, though. International Prospects are signed because of their raw talent, not because of a particular need the organization can try to fill. De Los Santos doesn't add to the logjam in the middle infield among top tier prospects and Carlos Correa. Beltre doesn't offer a right handed option for the offense. It's simply easier to develop skills when working with talent, and its good to have talent in house. 

The Twins are still looking to the future and spending some money, even if it isn't the splashy, Major League roster move fans are hoping for. 

Continued silence, increasing peril

 I've been pretty outspoken in my faith that the Twins will ultimately do something this winter. I have watched the Twins under the current front office wait out the market nearly every year they've been in charge. They've been particularly silent this year, but I don't think that will continue, and true to form, they will find bargains shortly before spring gets going.

The problem is that the Twins still don't really have a budget. There is no TV deal yet in place, and as yet, one doesn't appear close. The fact that it is taking this long likely doesn't bode well for the ultimate valuation of said deal. For the first time in a generation, teams aren't wondering how good a deal is going to be, but rather how bad. With the collapse of over the air television, there is less competition, and regional sports networks are evaporating.

The Twins are first in line to experience this. They are essentially testing the market for every other team that doesn't have the market availability the Dodgers, Yankees and a handful of others have. TV revenue is a major source of income, and organizationally, both for the Twins and or baseball, getting their deal settled is the most important thing that will happen. 

We want the Twins to win. Derek Falvey wants the Twins to win. The Pohlad family wants the Twins to win. The Pohlads, though, have a stake in the team. They aren't just fans or hobbyists, and the Twins are still a business. Owners may operate the team at a loss, but at some point, they will seek to limit the haircut they are forced to take in daily operations. 

And that is fine. There is nothing malicious there, that's how businesses work. The responsibility of the front office is to adapt. It's so quiet because they can't adapt, because they don't know what to adapt to. The longer it takes to get something in place, the later a pivot comes, and the harder it will be to have a cohesive plan. The organization has already started trimming their scouting and front office staff. A quick pivot is harder with less information already on hand. The longer the Twins go without a deal, the more impossible a task the remainder of the offseason becomes.

I thought a TV deal would be in place before Christmas. Maybe the Twins did too. Forget about the roster, this is the biggest story of the Twins offseason, and the longer it takes to get told, the worse the team is. 

Allow yourself to be surprised

 Everyone seems to have been sufficiently lulled. With January in full swing, journalists have had the chance to start talking about what to expect before spring training. As an example, MLB.com recently had an article assessing the 10 teams ready to make a big splash this offseason. It did not include the Twins. 

There were obvious teams, like the Cubs, who are high payroll and haven't added anyone, except a new manager. IF you were curious, the list also included teams like the White Sox, whose move would be trading players away. The Twins are expected to have an interest in both forms of transaction. A third of the teams in baseball were included, but not the Twins. 

 They will look to relieve salary via trade if they can, with one of the options for trade former all star Jorge Polanco. And they have a desire to reload their rotation, and their mid week claim of Ryan Jensen doesn't really do that, unless you are talking about the rotation in Wichita. 

The Twins haven't checked anything off their list yet, and are notoriously slow moving in the offseason. They have also, in recent years, not been shy about taking big swings when they are presented. The lack of anticipation of a big move by the national media is neither good nor bad. I think something is going to happen that will shake some local cages, at least, but I also don't think it will take baseball people by surprise. 

I mean, except for the writers at MLB.com

Are even larger changes coming for the Twins next winter?

An inherent issue with sports is that fans expect success, and when they achieve that success, they expect that success to be sustained. Look at the Gophers. PJ Fleck is the most successful coach the football team has had in about 100 years, but for some reason, the local populace is ready for him to go. What information is out there that tells you the Gophers will do better with a different coach? What coach is it that would bring that success? And why do we assume they would coach at Minnesota?

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have constantly faced those expectations since they came to Minnesota as well. They haven't won a title in Minnesota, but they also helped bring the Twins out of the mid-2010s doldrums, and haven't strung together bad seasons more than 2 seasons in a row. They have also built a strong rotation, and have proactively worked to avoid being underwater on contracts so they can sustain their competitive window, or at the very least, avoid prolonged slumps.

I don't think that there is much indication that the Pohlads are interested in moving on from either, despite what some perfectionist fans desire. Their contracts are up at the end of the season, and while we may not ever hear about a potential extension, we would certainly hear about a change at the top. Given the recent success after so much turmoil, I don't know that the ownership will hesitate to renew the deal, but will Falvey and Levine both want to return?

All evidence has shown loyalty to the Twins from both figures through the years. Both have been candidates for roles elsewhere throughout there time in Minneapolis, and while Thad Levine seems to have lost out to Craig Breslow in Boston, both withdrew their names from the candidacy for other organizations. I'm sure there is a certain personal pride in developing something and watching it grow. 

Things change, though, and the sandbox that the two have had to play in since their tenure began is getting smaller. Without a TV deal this offseason, the front office has their hands tied. Will payroll forever be reduced? Will the Twins be able to give out contracts when they are deemed worthwhile, or are those days behind us until revenue streams in the era of streaming can be figured out?

If those answers can't be answered satisfactorily, will they be compelled to seek another job in another organization? There are only 29 other organizations that can hire either in a similar role, which is a consideration, but it is also unlikely that either would be out of work for long. They are watching scouts and front office staff being shown the exits as part of cost cutting measures. If that's not the environment they want to work in, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could soon be leaving as well. 

And who would want to replace them, given the considerable headwinds, and how confident should we be that they would replicate, let alone exceed, the success of the last 7 years?