Twins preparing to scour the bargain bin

 The Twins are in an interesting spot as the trade deadline approaches. In recent seasons, the concern centered around pitching, and the front office made targeted acquisitions there. This season, the pitching staff is mostly where it needs to be, and the weakness has been on offense. Still, on that front the Twins biggest issue was with the production of their most important players, players unlikely to be supplanted by in season acquisitions.

Lately, Minnesota has started to play better even as the rotation has started to show some strain, largely because the players the Twins expected to lean heavily on are finally showing their value. Carlos Correa, Christian Vasquez and Max Kepler are producing, and the biggest weakness, third base, will be improved by a return to health with a return to health for Jorge Polanco initially, then eventually Royce Lewis.

This isn't a front office that is known for sitting idly by, despite what Twitter users used to say (they may still, I just haven't visited the site in a month). They aren't going to take the trade deadline off, but what kind of maneuvering might they do? I'll say that there are two obvious choices, if only because this group hasn't ever done the obvious thing, at least in my line of sight.

The two obvious moves are for a left handed reliever with Caleb Thielbar injured and Jovani Moran not really inspiring a lot of confidence, and right handed bat, even with Carlos Correa coming around. The typical producing positions are largely left handed and adding a righty will help to balance the lineup. Those aren't generally areas that are typically hard to come by on the late season trade market.

With those two weaknesses addressed, I could foresee another position that the Twins might look to add: Swing starter. There are a lot of young pitchers in the rotation, and some, like Baily Ober and Kenta Maeda with a history of injury concerns. We are starting to see the rotation show some holes, with Sonny Gray, Ober and Joe Ryan recently throwing some clunkers, and having someone in to put more space between starts or more reliable in long relief would help to preserve the rotation all the way to the postseason.

This might simply be accomplished by bringing Dallas Keuchel to the fold. A spot may open if the Twins deal from depth and send out a left handed position player. Keuchel has been performing well in  St. Paul and did not opt out at the deadline this week. It's very reasonable to think that this is a position the Twins are thinking of, and that Keuchel is the solution.

I don't think the Twins are going to be paying anything more than cash or a very fringe prospect this deadline, and it will be hard to execute the two or three moves it would take to get here without giving up a real premium. A deadline where you probably don't make many moves means it is really hard to screw it up, especially since it is unlikely you will get suckered into a bidding war. 

The only thing I feel confident in saying is that the Twins will wait to the absolute last possible moment to make any moves.

Let's get a little optimistic

 The season has been rough for the Twins, no doubt about it. Just ask anyone who has watched them. The 2024 schedule came out yesterday, and it seemed like so many people are already done with this season, having another calendar to look ahead to was a therapeutic balm. But this season isn't over. Circumstances being what they are, even though they are pretty mediocre so far, the Twins are only half a game out. And there is certainly reason for optimism. 

I noted last week, and before that to anyone who would listen, that the biggest issue with this team is that the players we expected to be the best on the roster have been among the worst. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been quite bad. Jose Miranda has been terrible. Christian Vasquez has failed to contribute. While Miranda will likely be replaced, we should be able to count on Correa, Buxton and Vasquez to get better. They are too good not to get better. 

There have been some health issues, though not as pronounced in recent years. Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco could definitely help with the anemic offense, particularly at third base, as Edouard Julien has been one of the highlights of the season so far. Still, another bat is another hope for a little bit of offense. I've also noted that the Twins have been aggressive in supplementing their team in the past. I would be surprised if they didn't do something at the deadline this year. And recent history says that the Twins won't be shy to dream big. What about a rental of Nolan Arenado for the rest of the season? 

I'm not going to get carried away thinking about potential trades. Those have had a tendency to turn sideways in the past, so let's look at a positive trend that is already here. The Twins have the easiest schedule in baseball left ahead of them. Minnesota has struggled against the top teams in the league, and feasted on the dregs. A start to the second half in Oakland might just be the kick the team needs to get moving. 

If that doesn't work, well, at least the rest of the division is in the tank too, Something that the Twins fandom forgets after so much postseason ineptitude is that getting your ticket to the dance is all it takes. The Twins have been better than their record indicates based on their Pythagorean record (based on runs scored vs. allowed) and given the pitching they have, there isn't reason to believe that will change a lot. 

In short, the Twins should make the playoffs, and when they do, anything could happen. Optimism! 

What's riding on the 2nd half?

 

The Minnesota Twins are a half game out of first place, and were widely expected to finish second or third in the division this year. Cleveland and Chicago have played a role in this surprise contention, but generally, being in a better spot than anticipated should lead to better vibes than the Twins have going on. There is a long sordid history of Twins postseason ineptitude that I need not get into right now, and the combination of history, expectations and the comical hamhandedness of the rest of the division is leading to a lot of confused anger. 

Just getting into the playoffs isn't going to cut it anymore. The Twins haven't won a postseason game in nearly 20 years, or a series in over 20 years. Stumbling through a season to enter the postseason ass first is not an altogether reassuring prospect for this particular organization. The fan base is looking for targets to blame, and there is plenty to go around, even if some of it is misguided. 

There is a lot of vitriol directed at the front office. You get there when a team comes out flat a few years in a row, but I am not going to pin the blame there. While mediocre, the Twins of the Falvey tenure have been better than they were for the 6 years before they were around. They were tasked when they arrived with developing the pitching staff, and they have what is probably the best rotation in the game right now, and against all odds, a bullpen that is in the upper half. They've spent good money, and at the time of the deals they have made, were viewed as the winner of almost all of the moves.

Essentially, the front office has done everything you want them. They brought the organization to the modern age after living in the 90s through most of the 2010s, they fleshed out their rotation and they have been aggressive in free agency. They aren't fools, just unlucky, and I think that they aren't to blame.

In that same thread, the moribund offense has been the problem, and while a lot of people have pointed at the signing of Joey Gallo as an issue, I don't think it is. If you sign Joey Gallo, the season he is putting together is exactly what you signed up for. He has the highest on base percentage of any of the double digit home run hitters, despite a low average, and has the 2nd highest OPS of the top 9 Twins in at bats behind Donovan Solano. Gallo strikes out a lot, but he's not the problem.

The most emblematic issue of the Twins season right now is Carlos Correa. He's not earning his contract thus far. He's been a below average player this season. Not just sub standard for his standards, but by major league baseball. Byron Buxton, the other bigger contract in the organization, has also been a disappointment. Without his defense, the pedestrian numbers at the plate stand out a little bit more. Buxton is not producing enough to be a good DH.

Both Buxton and Correa have a coupe of things in common. First, they are hurt. Their performance is likely diminished by back spasms and plantar fasciitis. 2) They are franchise cornerstones. Neither player can be moved, and neither are pulling their weight. A trip to the IL seems like it might be a way to get some of those players mashing in St. Paul an opportunity. It can't be much worse. 

The front office isn't likely to go anywhere, and the players that are the biggest problems are the players that are the least likely to be moved. Improvement is going to have to come internally, and if it doesn't, it' hard to argue against coaching changes. David Popkins would be the most likely to go, but if the season fails to launch, Rocco Baldelli should probably be concerned for his job. Managers aren't as impactful as a lot of people think, and one thing that they do offer is themselves in sacrifice for bad runs of form. 

A playoff appearance is at stake with the final months of the season, but so too is Rocco Baldelli's job if things continue the way they've gone.