Not many surprises for the opening day roster.

There is less than a week until the season gets underway. The Twins, along with other teams across baseball, have sorted through their spring roster and figured out who is going to break camp with the team. With only three games left before the regular season starts, it seems as though the roster is set.

One of the final major announcements was that Pablo Lopez will be the opening day starter in Kansas City on Thursday. What remains unseen is what will happen with Bailey Ober, one of the better starters the Twins had (when healthy) last year, but currently thought to be the 6th option. Will the Twins work with a 6 man rotation, will Ober work long relief or will he start the year in St. Paul, biding his time?

Given the return from injury needed by Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda, it seems fairly likely that Ober will be needed in a 5 man rotation before too long, regardless of where he starts. The bullpen, the center of so much consternation during the offseason and throughout 2022, remains surprise free at this point. Well, of course the presence of Emilio Pagan on the payroll is a bit of an eye opener, but it's not a surprise for him to be on the roster since he is on the payroll.

A lot of the surprises came as the team kept making additions as the offseason rolled on. Michael Taylor as a 4th outfielder is a huge upgrade that I don't think many saw coming. Adding Donovan Solano added some depth at the corners, which ultimately will be important, particularly in the wake of Alex Kirilloff ending up on the Injured List.

The injured list indeed played a role in some other surprise additions. With Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco expected to start on the shelf, and Byron Buxton being slowly rolled out, Trevor Larnach not only will make the opening day roster, but may end up as a regular right out of the gate. 

Without a doubt, the biggest surprise that is expected to be on the opening day roster is Willi Castro. Castro came from the Detroit Tigers and signed a minor league deal. He's not likely to hit above .250, but he offers some positional flexibility, and undoubtedly had a solid spring, with an OPS over.800. Castro can fill a few holes right now, and gets rewarded for his hard work in the spring. 

It's nice to see a player like Castro on the roster every year. It gives a little bit more significance to spring, and on top of the team, it gives fans an individual player to root for. Opening day is on Thursday in Kansas City. After a busy offseason, we have a good idea on who to expect on the field.

Twins already going to flex their depth

 I like watching early season baseball games, despite the largely inhospitable climate during the first month or two of the season, particularly here in Minnesota. We spend all the offseason speculating on what, exactly, our favorite team's roster will look like, and really the beginning of the year is the time we should best expect to see the roster as it was intended.

Last year, when the components were where they were supposed to be, the Twins were playing well, and built a buffer in the AL Central. When the team started to break down, it exposed a lack of depth and perhaps a miscalculation of their pitching approach. But as intended, the team was just fine.

This winter, the lack of depth last season was on the minds of the Twins organization. There were some splashy moves that the Twins made in the off season, but a broader theme to what the organization did was improving the depth. Inarguably, the two big moves the Twins made were to resign Carlos Correa and trade for Pablo Lopez, but despite an active offseason, none of the other moves were for players that are expected to be every day options.

Well, as it turns out, all that offseason work is going to be flaunted earlier in the season than we expected. Jorge Polanco is not likely to be ready for opening day, which means newcomer Donovan Solano or Kyle Farmer will likely start the season at 2nd. Nick Gordon will have a shot at the keystone as well, at least for a couple of days.

Alex Kirilloff may not be fully ready by opening day, and Max Kepler is reporting some soreness as well. That opens up regular playing time for Joey Gallo, already pegged as, at the very least, a platoon option in the corner outfield. This likely also means that Trevor Larnach is going to break camp with the team, and that Solano, Farmer and Gordon have more opportunities to see the field. 

Fortunately, none of the various nicks to the regular players sound like they will be long lasting. Maybe the "intended" opening day roster won't show up until May this year. Assumuing nobody else gets hurt, of course. 

The World Baseball Classic is a treasure

 America, the greatest country in the world. Living in this privileged land has made us, perhaps a little bit unequipped to fully appreciate certain things. Despite all of our many, many flaws, our vast size, wealth and population have given us many things. A thriving economy, political omnipresence on a global scale and absolute and utter athletic dominance.

Maybe that's one of the reasons that Americans aren't as enamored with the World Baseball Classic as many of the players competing in the event are. The US might win it, they are still alive in the competition, but they aren't crushing all comers. That's not even the point, though. The Dream Team was very popular. Americans enjoy dominating.

I think the issue is more that Americans are so good at so many things that the World Baseball Classic doesn't carry any added significance. Americans come together and win things all the time, so this relatively newish competition, to our jaded eyes, is an interruption to Spring Training, a marketing stunt. The real deal is the Major League Season, so let's focus on that, right?

But that's not the case for, say, Venezuela, Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic. They don't have the extensive Olympic history that the US does. Those national teams are, however, pretty good at baseball. The Dominican Republic has been eliminated, but Venezuela and Puerto Rico are still playing. PR actually eliminated the DR, which is kind of what brings us to this point.

Celebrating that victory, Edwin Diaz tore his patellar tendon. Many fans (particularly Mets fans) roared about how Diaz was hurt in a meaningless game. Never mind that Diaz was celebrating a game that he won, suggesting it wasn't meaningless to him, but just days later, center Brandon Nimmo sustained an injury at spring training. 

For some fans, Nimmo's injury was more acceptable because it was in service to their team. I'm guessing there are many Mets fans in Puerto Rico who are upset about Diaz's injury, but are more disappointed that he won't be playing for the Island, despite Mets fandom. A lack of international domination lends a different kind of perspective.

The World Baseball Classic is fantastic. It's fun to see such a singular passion for the game even before it starts. This is many nations in Latin America's one chance to do well for themselves on an international stage. Nobody wants to see injuries, but I think Diaz is happier to be injured celebrating a WBC win than he would have been getting injured doing back field drills for spring training. 

The X factor in the AL Central will be an X Factor

 

We have a pretty good idea of what the Twins, Guardians and White Sox will look like when the season starts in a couple of weeks. Of course, aside from a last second trade by Minnesota, we had a pretty good idea of what the teams would look like then, as well, and I'm not sure how many people expected the Guards to take down the division easily, or the White Sox to be so hapless.

Cleveland executed because of the success of players that few thought would come through for them. Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan were two of the top three in WAR for Cleveland, despite having only been in town for a couple seasons. Kwan was a rookie last season, while Gimenez came to Cleveland with Amed Rosario as part of the Francisco Lindor trade two offseasons ago. Rosario, by the way, was the #4 player on the roster in WAR, per Baseball reference.

A lot of the projections for Cleveland saw Jose Ramirez and not much else. The early jolt from Kwan and the steady success of Gimenez and Rosario made Cleveland better than it seemed like they would be, and put them over the top. On paper going into the season, Cleveland was slightly less than their top competition in the 2nd, but their x factor in rookies and break out players ended up being the overwhelming difference in the race.

I don't think it is too much of a reach to believe that this will be the case in 2023 as well. The margins for difference, particularly if the Twins can stay much healthier and the Guardians break out players sustain their success, aren't great. If the Twins and Guardians are down, the White Sox will have a shot at the division as well, given how badly the players they were leaning on performed under Tony La Russa.

The Twins filled their roster with depth. The starting rotation looks sturdier than it did last year. Generally, the floor looks higher for the Twins, behind the apex players in the lineup, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. There are many potential impacts lurking in the background, ready to add a bit more height to the Twins' ceiling, and getting a breakout somewhere on the roster will be critical to Minnesota's postseason chances.

There are, of course, the players that have been in town for a while that haven't really reached the level that they were promised to. What can Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach or even Jose Miranda do when given the wheel for a full season, with another year of growth behind them? How much better would one feel about the bullpen if Jovani Moran or Jorge Alcala become established?

But it isn't just the young players we've already gotten to know that are primed to push Minnesota over the edge in 2023. Edouard Julien throughout camp and the World Baseball Classic has the Twins wondering how to incorporate his offense into the offense sooner rather than later. Matt Wallner has had a taste of the majors and will step in as needed. Don't forget -- and how could you -- the top prospect in the organization, Brooks Lee, who after a strong professional debut and time in spring training, may be fast tracked to the Majors as well. The Twins would love for Royce Lewis, the former top prospect, to be able to regain a little bit of the magic he showed before getting injured last summer before the end of the season.

There are opportunities for the Twins to overshoot the expectations many pundits have laid out for them. It was those opportunities, those bonus surprises that carried Cleveland to the crown in 2022. It could happen for the Twins in 2023.

Joey Gallo is the wealthy man's Miguel Sano

 The Twins have an abundance of depth this season. It seems like that was the intent of the off season, particularly after the Carlos Correa saga finally came to an end. After that point, the Twins added Michael Taylor and Donovan Solano, having also traded for Kyle Farmer earlier in the winter. The flashiest move, of course, was for pitcher Pablo Lopez, but there was some work done in the iddle. 

Christian Vasquez fills an obvious hole behind the plate, where Ryan Jeffers failed to seize the role going forward and Gary Sanchez is still looking for a job. Joey Gallo was signed early in the offseason in what seemed like an indication that Max Kepler would soon be traded, but now, it looks like Gallo is going to stake out an important role with the team this season.

Many people will look at Gallo's career, particularly in recent years, and wonder exactly what the plan or him is. Sure, he can hit a bunch of home runs, and Fangraphs projects he will hit 25 this season, but projects that that number will come with a batting average lingering in the .190s. I'm sure many long time fans hear that, then start to sweat through waking nightmares, remembering Miguel Sano.

Early in Sano's career, there was an attempt to move him to the outfield. To say he was miscast is something of an understatement, but Sano was a power hitter whose bat had earned a spot in the lineup. He was a natural corner infielder, but the Twins had Trevor Plouffe at third and little known Joe Mauer at 1st. Sano was still young, and so he moved to the outfield, where the Twins hoped he would stick.

Sano, as it turned out, was not cut out for the outfield. He didn't have the instinct, nor the range to account for the lack of instinct, to play in the outfield. Fly ball pitchers saw averages creep up, Sano got hurt and started designated hitting more, and it was the beginning of a long trend of wondering exactly what the Twins were going to do with him.

Sano was able to tap into that prodigious power potential eventually, crushing 30 home runs in a season twice, and at least 20 4 times. Along with those home runs came an almost unbelievable amount of strikeouts. His average still hovered in the .220 range, and his OPS+ was usually well above 100, but he was a player without position, and one that had a reputation for bad decision making. The fan base was turning on him, and with other younger and more reliable players emerging around him, the organization was going to leave him behind too.

With that profile in mind, it's not hard to see why there was such a negative reaction when the Twins signed Gallo. The Veteran outfielder seemed to boast a big home run stroke that was saddled with a low batting average, lower than even Sano's, particularly in the last couple of seasons. 

Gallo will hit for 40 home runs when healthy, which is more than even Sano, but offensively, admittedly, Sano was probably a little bit better. On the other hand, in the field Gallo is a lot better. While Sano was a liability in the outfield, and wasn't good enough to hold a position in the infield, Gallo is being penciled in as a starting left fielder, bringing with him two recent Gold Gloves for his work in the outfield. 

Put another way, there are 4 Gold Gloves among the Twins outfielders, and Gallo has half of them (Byron Buxton and Michael Taylor each have 1). While Sano was ultimately a 1 tool player, Gallo has at least two skills.

One last statistic to drive it home. Joey Gallo has accumulated over 3 Wins Above Replacement in three different seasons. The best Sano has ever done is 2.8. Despite the initial impression you might have of Gallo, and how much he reminds you o Miguel Sano, rest easy. Joey Gallo is much better.