Expectations are raised, but not alarms

 There is but one commodity that is flying off of the Free agency shelves: former Twins pitchers. The Cardinals alone have signed Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray, while Kenta Maeda joined the Detroit Tigers. Even since this morning, Emilio Pagan signed with the Reds. Gray, Maeda and Pagan, of course, were part of the team last year, playing important roles in the regular season and into the playoffs. Gray and Maeda also were runners up in the Cy Young race at one point in their time in Minnesota.

There is an immediate level of concern for many fans, who have memories of the Twins playing at the lowest end of the free agency market, and losing out on two good pitchers is a tough pill to swallow. Additionally all of the reports of a payroll slimdown on it's way lead all of us to assume the worst. 

Before we are consumed by despair, let's instead give credit to the Twins organization for their ability to get the most out of the three pitchers they are losing off the roster this season. Then, take solace in the fact that all of the players they are losing are agedd 33 or older. Maeda has sustained more than one serious elbow injury in his career. It is ok that the Twins have not spent the money, even if it wasn't limited, on three old pitchers. Remember, any money spent would be on their future performance, and not a guarantee of continued success.

It's also worth noting that the three pitchers in question were acquired via trade. Every pitcher expected to be in the rotation as it stands right now is a draftee or trade acquisition. Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar are the only members of the bullpen that were acquired as free agents. It's hard for me to get worked up anymore about free agents, particularly pitchers, when they don't sign with the Twins. There has been enough success without them.

That said, given the past year, the historic desire to have an ace pitcher, which has been the desire every offseason since Johan Santana left, has been updated. Now that members of Twins Territory have become accustomed to a quality rotation, fans want a second top tier starter to join Pablo Lopez atop the rotation. 

The Twins are now playoff winners, and the expectation have raised with it. I'm not panicked about the Twins not signing any of their pitching free agents, but I, like everyone, now expect the Twins to come away from the winter with a good rotation. 

Joe Mauer should be a Hall of Famer

By almost every metric, Joe Mauer is an easy selection for the Hall of Fame, but there is a tranche of pundits and even Minnesota fans that believe his is a borderline case because he didn't hit enough home runs, or wasn't a part of a successful postseason team, or played a position other than catcher for 5 tears after his career altering brain injury.

The only reason that there should be a delay on Mauer's entry, not even if there was a question about his qualificiations, would be if this was already expected to be a big class, and there just weren't enough votes to go around. Aside from Mauer, Adrian Beltre and Todd Helton look like they will get in this year, but it isn't a bumper crop of super stars on the ballot.

Jay Jaffe is something of a Hall of Fame mathematician. He created the "JAWS" metric, which evaluates a player's WAR over their 7 year peak and over their career. Among catchers, Joe Mauer is 7th all time in the JAWS metric. For the concerns about an underwhelming peak or a short career, his JAWS is higher than the average hall of fame catcher, and is the only one in the top 11 that is not in the hall of fame.

Breaking it down by the components, Mauer is 5th in the all time peak measurement and 9th in career WAR, both higher than the average hall of famer.

Another very good catcher is going to be on the ballot in a few years, and is seen sa a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. Yadier Molina, is undoubtedly a Hall of Fame catcher on his own merits. Some people use Molina's defensive prowess (Mauer has 3 gold gloves) or his rings (Why isn't Jorge Posada in?) or his durability (Where is Benito Santiago?). Like I said, Molina deserves entry on his own merits and I don't mean to denigrate him, but rather say that the reasons for Molina's entry shouldn't be the reasons you say Mauer shouldn't be in.

Joe Mauer was one of the best hitters in the games for about 5 years (3 batting titles!), and was one of the best catchers to ever play the game. The opinion seems to be that he isn't a shoo-in to be in the Hall of Fame, but really, he should be getting elected this winter. 

Vocal skill beyond genre

 If you haven't been here to listen to my foundational opinions on music in the past, well, here it is. Don't let anyone make you feel bad for liking what you like (unless it's like "I like so and so because they hate [insert group). You can like lyrics, or tempo or emotion or whatever, and all of it hits all of us differently. Our taste in music comes from our background and our own individual tastes, and just because I don't like something doesn't mean either of us are better than the other. To assert otherwise makes you a dick.

With that said, I don't like country music. It doesn't sound right to my ear, and reminds me of my teenage job where I worked in a local hardware store with backwards, racist coworkers. The lyrics are a little too saccharine, and the instrumentation just isn't my favorite. 

Ever since "southern rock" was christened, though, there has been crossover, so I am not entirely unfamiliar with the most famous country stars. There are two different types of those stars. There are the country stars that make pop songs or made a couple of pop songs, like Taylor Swift, Chris Stapleton or Maren Morris, but then there are people who have made their own music that just became popular, like Luke Combs, Morgan Wallen or Carrie Underwood. 

In some cases, I am impressed. I think Stapleton, for example, has a unique voice that he has used well in his cross over work. I respect Combs' choice of songs to remake, and he has a soft spot with me for how beloved he is in his home town of Boone, North Carolina. People wouldn't stop talking about him when I visited last year. 

There is one artist who has popped up on the pop stations a couple of times, who embodies everything that country music can be when it is beautiful. Whenever Kacey Musgraves has emerged from the country station and found a spot in the mainstream, I'm always struck by her ability to make a beautiful song. 

Her voice lends itself to the plaintive, empathetic and hurt reflected in the songs that she makes. I'm not even here to tell you that Rainbow or I Remember Everything (if you can get past Zach Bryan) are the perfect songs or anything, but that for the message - which is very different - in both of the songs, Musgrave's vocalizations are perfectly suited. 

I can appreciate people when they master their art, even if it isn't a medium I typically enjoy. Lyrics don't grab me as much as vocalization does, and Kacey Musgraves has proven to have that skill mastered. 

The Twins need to decide how deep to cut.

 I think that the Twins have a bit of a window of grace right now. They finally won a bit in the post season, but are now being confronted by the realities of the shifting landscape of sports media. They have no TV contract, and are the first team to need to try to figure out their value on the open market since Diamond Sports has started it's collapse. People recognize this, and understand the challenges. 

Really, though, what kind of leash do you think that will buy the team? After Sonny Gray signs elsewhere, and the Twins have traded off Jorge Polanco, do you think Twins fans will have all that much patience for whatever cuts the organization deems necessary? I sure don't. 

The team needs eyeballs on the game to sell their product, and with the TV rates likely to be harder to come by, they will need fans in the stands next season. At some point, the Twins will need to wonder where the value of saving a couple of bucks is worth aggravating fans even more. Sure, winning sells tickets, but this market has seen good fortune dry up abruptly in the past, and will be wary of a sell off, even if the team is still well positioned to start the season.

What I am saying, in my own convoluted manner, is if it is worth jettisoning popular utility players at a fairly marginal reduction in payroll, or for a marginal increase in talent? Kyle Farmer is making a pretty good chunk of change next season, but on the other hand, he was the first player to defy the Minnesota Curse (saying the Twins would win in the post season) and be right about it. Do you want to tempt fate like that?

More seriously, Nick Gordon won't be in line to make as much money. He had a rough start in 2023 and saw his season end early due to injury. He offers positional flexibility, and his bat had come around 2022. For a league minimum salary, he seems like a guy worth keeping around, especially if Farmer is relocated. 

Undoubtedly, there are players in St. Paul that are pounding on the door, ready to come to big league squad, like Austin Martin, who would share some of the same tools as Gordon, but there shouldn't be a rush to get Martin to the Majors to start the year, and injuries will definitely arise as the season progresses. There is plenty of time to get Martin to town. 

On the other hand, the veteran depth looks to be limited next season, thanks to that payroll trim. Even as a pre-arbitration player, Gordon adds some of the leadership structure to the organization, even if as a cheerleader. That said, he has been a long time member of the organization, and is only a year younger than Carlos Correa. Calling Gordon a veteran isn't absurd. 

I'm not saying that Gordon should be the starting second baseman or anything wild like that. I'm saying that if the team is trying to cut payroll while remaining competitive, maybe keeping Gordon can satisfy both of those issues, and continue to be a well liked figure in the organization. 

All right, now let's talk about free agents.

There is quite a bit of valid consternation about the Twins payroll for the 2024 season. The Twins are presently without a television contract, and the network that has typically been available to air games locally is not going to be an option anymore, thanks to the collapse of the regional sports network infrastructure. 

Then, there were the statements by Derek Falvey, in which he stated that the payroll would be lower this year. We don't have any hard figures, but even if there is a significant drop in the payroll, some important players are under contract, while other important players are still on their rookie deals. There is room for free agency, is what I am saying, and the Twins are usually active in scouring the market.

Let's look at the breakdown that was provided by MLBTradeRumors, as well as the picks for free agents three of their writers suspected would fit in Minnesota. The comprehensive list is below.
SP Marcus Stroman
SP Kenta Maeda
1b Rhys Hoskins
RP Reynaldo Lopez
OF Harrison Bader
RP Hector Neris

I think we can dismiss some of these out of hand. First, they don't like to overextend for starting pitchers unless they are already very comfortable with them. That eliminates Stroman. They also are loathe to commit multi year contracts to relief pitchers, which takes care of Lopez and Neris. Hoskins is one of the top bat first free agents out there. He suffered a torn ACL last spring, but that shouldn't deter teams in need of a bat. The Twins aren't likely to get into a bidding war at the top of the market this offseason.

That leaves Kenta Maeda and Harrison Bader, which seems like a reasonable expectation for how active the Twins are in free agency this year. If you use the MLBTR estimates, that would be 28m in free agent salary, which seems extremely reasonable based on the estimated salaries provided by Sportrac. This would lead to a $138m payroll even after the estimated arbitration decisions.

As we noted yesterday, some more of that salary is expected to be subtracted in trades of players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler or Kyle Farmer. That's $27m of salary that would be replaced by pre arbitration players like Austin Martin or Brooks Lee. There might still be a spot to bolster, like a right handed bat similar, but perhaps not as expensive as Hoskins. 

Don't be worried about the reduction in payroll. That doesn't mean that the Twins aren't going to be active this winter, and there is a very real chance they make a couple of notable signings, on top of a few expected trades. 

It makes the most sense to trade Jorge Polanco

Let me be clear, when I am a fan of a team, I become a fan of the players. Even when they struggle, as long as they seem to have a good attitude, or are otherwise unproblematic in the clubhouse, I just want them to be successful. I don't get mad at players who aren't playing well, I just hope they can do their best. Ultimately though, I understand that baseball is a business, and there is a combination of factors in all decisions, notably cost efficiency and winning games. This is all to say that I have grown attached to Jorge Polanco and wish he could stay in Minnesota forever, but that is neither cost efficient, nor is that the best way to win games.

Polanco will be making $10m on his option this year, and the Twins are in the market to see their salary reduced. Position players are at a premium on the free agent market this year, so there should be takers for Polanco, even at that salary. 

All right, admittedly, his salary isn't outrageous, however with the emergence of Edouard Julien, the near arrival of Austin Martin and the current presence of Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon, it will be easy to replace Polanco at a reduced salary. 

Instead of keeping a glut of middle infielders, the Twins can also reallocate the resources they do have and replace some of the depth in the rotation by moving Polanco. Not only will the step back by losing Polanco be marginal, the return could help bolster what was a strength in 2023, but is losing some pieces this offseason. 

For no other reason than the Google algorithm has been sending me a headline about how the Red Sox might be interested in Polanco, I pieced something together that might satisfy those needs, but also give some perspective on what a realistic trade might look like between the clubs. 

First, I entertained the thought of a trade for Alex Verdugo, who is rumored to be available, but with Max Kepler already in the "Left handed corner outfielder in a contract year" position, it didn't seem like Verdugo fit any of the Twins' needs. Instead, I found a starting pitcher whose "Trade Value" according to the site Baseball Trade Values seemed easy to make work with Polanco's.

Nick Pivetta is also in his walk year, and has pitched in the Red Sox Bullpen to some success. He's not a front line starter, but would be expected to backfill the expected loss of Kenta Maeda. Perhaps appealing to the Twins, Pivetta has seen his success increase as he has used his slider more frequently. 

While this is a move that does make sense, I can't in good faith imagine that a team would be willing to trade one year of a pitcher for one year of a second baseman, even if you did throw in a prospect like catcher Noah Cardenas. Maybe the Twins would be interested in Pivetta. Maybe the Red Sox would be interested in Polanco. I can't see them being traded for each other, but it gives you an idea what a market for Polanco could look like.

Jorge Polanco probably won't end up a Twin next season, which stinks and makes sense at the same time. Fortunately, there are going to be options for trading Polanco that will result in the Twins getting better.

We know what we're getting by now

Derek Falvey has been at the helm of the Minnesota Twins now since 2017. and at this juncture, we should be fully anticipating the course of the Twins offseason, and without a doubt, we will all become incredibly frustrated with the team's pace. 

First, we know that the Twins are more than willing to wait out the market on almost every spot on the roster, except, it seems, for catcher, if Jason Castro and Christian Vazquez are any example. If the Twins have an opening behind the plate, this leadership group has been assertive in adding the right person at that position early in the offseason. The Twins seem pretty well set behind the plate, so don't look for the Twins to jump into the free agent market.

The Twins are also very willing to add to their rotation ia trade, and are extremely prudent when it comes to adding via free agency. Michael Pineda is about the only pitcher to sign with the Twins. Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack were among the names added via trade. The tough market for pitching is fine. Falvey will make a trade if he feels the rotation isn't strong enough.

Those trades will come late, well after the free agency rush. Additionally, they will only be done to improve the rotation, though there may be some incidental supplementing of the bullpen. The bullpen won't seem like a priority, but in truth, the Twins have significantly more faith in their internal development than you do. Emilio Pagan was brilliant this year, after an offseason of Twins fans wondering why he was still here. This will only reinforce that faith, as will the knowledge that relievers are volatile, and it's tough to put enough stock in them to spend big in free agency there.

Last, even though we know the Twins are slow to start the offseason, they are often among the last to finish making moves. Donovan Solano was signed in the spring, and Michael A. Taylor was acquired in that time frame, and both were valuable contributors. Heck, the trade that brought Paddack and Pagan came the day before opening day. 

There are budget concerns headed into the season, which stem from the shifting landscape of sports on TV, but the Twins should still be able to assemble a competitive roster, especially in the AL Central. Just practice some serious patience, and don't evaluate the progress until Opening Day. 

There is nothing wrong with Dick Bremer

Dick Bremer, voice of the Twins throughout my life, was pushed out of his position as the play by play TV announcer of the Twins this season. There has been quite a bit of consternation over the move. Bremer is problem free, and unlike a lot of lifetime baseball minds, he was fully willing to learn new things and was good at conveying the value of the new statistics to the fan base. So what the heck, right?

This isn't a Hawk Harrelson situation, where Harrelson claims to have been fired, and most of the world can understand why. His homerism, while refreshing for White Sox fans, was also liable to get him in trouble, with a misguided comment towards an umpire or an opponent. It was time for the White Sox to cut bait, if not in 2018, then some time shortly thereafter.

Harrelson was pushed into retirement, while Bremer is moving to an advisory role with the Twins. While this was not Bremer's decision, this should be an indication that there isn't bad blood over the entire matter. I suspect that the move to remove Bremer from the booth is more tightly related to what will be the biggest story of the Minnesota offseason.

The Twins are between TV contracts this offseason, and really need to establish that source of revenue for the future. That future will need to be secured and stable. The Twins need to sell a similarly stable project. Bremer had been in the role for 40 years and is 67 years old. If the deal is 7 or 8 years, like national deals have been, Bremer would be in his mid 70s by the conclusion of the deal. Older if the Twins want a longer deal. Bremer was fine this year, but what about a few years from now?

The Twins don't have a problem with Bremer, nor Bremer with the Twins. Both recognize that Bremer may be ready to move on sooner rather than later, and while it wasn't yet for Bremer, the Twins needed to get ahead of the change so they can sell the media rights with a voice that will be there for the life of the deal. 

The rebuild that never got built.

 The season consisted of such a dog fight with the Guardians in the first half, and finally resulted in the squad coming together and pulling away late. The Tigers actually came out in 2nd by the end of the year, which just shows it's very hard to win games when you don't ever get around to scoring any runs, as Cleveland struggled with. 

Even the Royals, paced by Bobby Witt Jr. seemed to come alive a bit late in the year. If not alive, then at least they showed enough to get some fans to the stadium next year. It's clear they are near the beginning of a reset.

Vibes were less good in Chicago, where the White Sox were expected to compete, and potentially win the AL Central, thanks to a good rotation and an emergent core. It didn't hurt that the team finally decided to shake loose of Tony La Russa at the helm for those that saw success for Chicago in 2023. 

And then, the season was an unmitigated disaster. Despite the expectations for Chicago and Kansas City, they finished only 5 games apart in the standings. It was so bad that the White Sox are bringing La Russa back (to the front office). 

What is the most frustrating aspect of a team whose rebuild didn't work? Like I said, the White Sox had a bunch of prosects that seemed ready to make the jump. I was fearful, as a Twins fan, of the White Sox potential. They stocked up in their trades of Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana and Chris Sale, and really seemed poised to move into a golden era.

But after that promise, some of those prospects just weren't successful, like Yoan Moncada who had a bad season. Eloy Jimenez has never repeated his rookie season, and only seems to get worse in the field. Michael Kopech has never seemed to rein in his terrific stuff. Is it more frustrating that these guys aren't producing as expected?

Or is it more frustrating to watch Luis Robert explode for 38 home runs and realize the hitter he's always been capable of being? Or to have Dylan Cease become one of the top starters in the league, and know that having these two stars reaching their potential just isn't enough? Knowing that the rest of your cast of characters was too mediocre to allow your stars to execute in important moments?

The AL Central was derided for it's mediocrity this season. The Twins proved, at least, that they could compete in the post season, and the Tigers and Royals were about as expected, maybe a bit better. Cleveland wasn't able to maintain their fortune from last year, but the real problem with the division was a White Sox squad that just didn't have it. Now, though, we should know what to expect in 2024.

An uphill battle.