Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Crowning a 2016 champion - The Rhino and Compass college football simulation

Back in the headier, more earnest days of my blogging career, back when I was still working with Steve Pallotto on a more regular basis, we sought out to change college football. There was one major flaw, as we saw it, with how the game crowned a champion. 1) Preseason polls and opinion had way too much to do with who was ultimately granted a chance to compete for the national title. So how do you eradicate opinion and rely solely on performance? Ensure that only conference champions make a post season tournament, and seed those teams based on record and the strength of their conference. 
So we made 12 conference, later upped to 16, thanks to a change in NCAA membership, with conferences based on geography, and set non conference schedules (to determine those conference strength metrics) based on a team's record the prior year, not unlike the NFL. Conference champions were measured only on their in-conference schedule.
I couldn't find recaps from last year, so that's probably good news for you, but as we get going into the 2017 session, I do have a look at who won the 2016 Rhino and Compass football simulation. Rather than boiling down the conferences, team by team, (you can ask for details if you want them later, you weirdos) why don't I instead just run through the champions and the post season tournament? Oh, all right, here are two teams I will mention: Minnesota finished 6-6 (4-3 in conference) in the Midwest, and finished 5th, while Purdue went 5-7 (1-6) in the Great Lakes. OK, here are the champs, with their post season ranking.
1. Oklahoma
2. LSU
3. Miami (FL)
4. Western Michigan
5. Utah
6. USC
7. North Carolina
8. Western Kentucky
9. Pittsburgh
10. Georgia
11. Mississippi
12. Ohio State.
13. Oregon
14. Wisconsin
15. Colorado State
16. Temple

First off, there were some obvious surprises out of this list, particularly when compared to the actual results of the season. Alabama was bumped by Mississippi, Florida State couldn't overtake Miami, Penn State was beaten by Pitt, Clemson was unable to challenge Georgia, Oregon topped Washington and Colorado State succeeded over Colorado. 
Within our closed system, though, things went mostly according to seed in the first round of the playoffs. There was one upset, #15 Colorado State eliminating LSU in the first round, but otherwise, all the lower seeds won. 
The same could be said for the quarterfinals. Western Michigan took three OTs to top Utah in the best game of the set, while Oklahoma only narrowly defeated Western Kentucky. North Carolina and Miami (FL) had easier times with their opponents.
Western Michigan made it to the Cotton Bowl in real life last year, losing in a better game than had been expected to the Wisconsin Badgers. Miami went to the Russell Athletic Bowl, defeating West Virginia when they got there. In our simulation, they both made it to the National Championship game, Western by defeating Oklahoma rather handily, and Miami requiring double OT to dispatch North Carolina.
In the end, it was the Miami Hurricanes who took down Western Michigan for the national title (Rhino and Compass style, at any rate), collecting a 44-20 victory. For the record, Miami also defeated Wisconsin in the playoffs, way back in the first round of our tournament. Can they repeat in 2017? Find out in a few months. 

Thursday, September 7, 2017

A Super Bowl Prediction

The NFL season is coming around tomorrow night when the Patriots welcome the Chiefs to town. I'm more of a baseball blogger these days, but I am still a football fan and have opinions. I feel like, since I just had my 4th fantasy football draft tonight, I have just as much insight into the league as anyone.
Since the Super Bowl is in Minnesota this year, but mostly because I know, at this point, nobody cares about who I think will finish third in the AFC West (Chargers, by the way) I'll cut right to the chase. The Seattle Seahawks are going to win the Super Bowl this year.

I think Seattle getting to the Super Bowl is the easiest choice I have this year. They don't have much competition in the NFC West, and should have home field against whichever other team emerges out of the NFC (I suspect the Packers will be good, as will the entirety of the NFC South) It gets tougher in the AFC.
The Patriots will always be the popular pick in the AFC, but I remember what happened the last time they opened the season with the Chiefs. Do you? Here is a hint. Matt Cassel had an NFL career because of it. Even if Tom Brady doesn't get hurt 8 minutes into the season, he is 40 years old, and the history of quarterback success at age 40 is very limited. The rest of the team is really good, and the AFC East is pretty bad, so they will definitely be a playoff team, but not one with a good shot at the Super Bowl.
But then what else is there in the AFC? The Raiders are a hot choice, but I don't like their running back situation, or Derek Carr coming back from a serious injury. The AFC South is a mess, but I think people will be surprised by the ease at which the Titans win the division. That leaves the AFC North. Ugh, I guess I'll pick the Steelers to win the AFC, but lose to the Seahawks.
Oh, and Bon Jovi will play half time.