Saturday, April 8, 2017

The Rhino and Compass OOTP Season preview

I don't know how this never happened before, but I picked up a copy of Out of the Park Baseball 18, and it was my first ever OOTP purchase. I had never even heard of it until this time! For those that are unfamiliar with the game, it is a baseball strategy game for the PC, and it is reminiscent of Football Manager, but for baseball. It's known for its commitment to detail and in depth player knowledge.
I found out about it through the a couple of sites doing MLB previews of the season, and so, naturally, the first thing I did was simulate the entire year so I could come up with a preview for the 2017 baseball season. I haven't seen any sites do any Twins focused stats, so I wanted to first note some of the interesting things that happened during their season.
First, the transactions that the computerized Thad Levine executed. He claimed Austin Jackson and Raul Alcantara off of waivers early in the year, but waited until July to make a trio of trades. Two of those moves were with Milwaukee, cumulatively trading Tyler Duffey and Lamonte Wade for Chase Anderson, Carlos Herrera and Angel Ventura. Later, Eduardo Escobar was traded to the Padres for Enyel De Los Santos.
Another interesting happenstance was that they failed to sign first overall pick Hunter Greene. Thats not so bad, because they will get a high pick the next season, along with their regular 1st round selection, which will be much lower. The OOTP Twins went 79-83, which is a terrific improvement. Most of that had to do with the improvement of the players, like Max Kepler, who won a gold glove while hitting over .300 and collecting 24 home runs.Miguel Sano led the team with 40, with Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton following with 33 and 28. Dozier won the Silver Slugger at 2nd.
The pitching was still shaky, to say the least. Only Kyle Gibson nd Phil Hughes worked more than 200 innings, while Duffey, before he got traded, had the best ERA among starters. Hector Santiago had an ERA over 5, but more surprisingly, Ervin Santana was over 6, and was released after the season ended. Jose Berrios wasn't much better, but Adalberto Mejia showed promise with a 4.12 ERA.
Now, for your playoff stats. The Twins didn't make it. Cleveland won the AL Central by 20 games (50 over last place Kansas City) and had the # 1 seed in the playoffs. Seattle and Boston won their divisions while Houston and Tampa Bay collected Wild Card spots. Tampa beat Houston to win the Wild Card Playoff, then swept Cleveland and lost to Boston, who swept Seattle in the Division Series. Boston was the AL representative in the World Series.
On the NL side, the Cubs had a scare, needing the second Wild Card spot to reach the post season, as the Cardinals overtook them. The Mets had the other WC spot, while the Nationals and Dodgers won their divisions. The Cubs recovered from their regular season struggles, defeating the Mets, Dodgers and Nationals on their way to another World Series. Yes, the Cubs and Red Sox met in the World Series, which just seems a little too quaint. The Cubs won their second World Series, 4 games to 2.
OOTP is probably on to something, if I am being totally honest with myself. I guess we all just have to wait for that break out season from Max Kepler.

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Who but the Cubs?

Usually going into ever baseball season, there is some rising team that I think will make a big push into the post season, another that I don't think is as good as many pundits thought they would be, and some weird as heck pick for World Series champion.
Well, this year, there is no practical reason not to pick the Cubs to repeat. Oh, sure, I can tell you that I think the Astros will make a post season push or that the Indians won't be as good as they were last year, but it's downright reckless to pick anyone but the Cubs to win it all again.
Chicago has recently had the best return rate on their farm system. It seems like they hit on prospect after prospect, signing after signing, and were simply well built for the long term.
Just think about the two stars on their team, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo is the older of the two, and he is only 27. Bryant is 25. He's already won the MVP in his league. They plan to start Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Wilson Contreras and Javier Baez as well, who are all younger than Bryant. They have Albert Almora to come off the bench, who is only 23.
Even if they backslide a little bit, this group already won the World Series. This is a fantastic group of position players that has patched their few holes with good free agents like Ben Zobrist. They felt strong enough to deal from their stack of prospects, sending Jorge Soler to the Royals during the offseason.
The thing that I look to for playoff success, and the thing that usually sinks many prospective challengers to their league crown is pitching. The Cubs have Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks, who were all among the top 20 pitchers last year. They added Wade Davis at the back of the bullpen with the Soler trade I referenced earlier, in order to replace Aroldis Chapman. They didn't have the elite closer all season last year. This will work as a boost to the team in the one area that was likely a weakness last year, and even then, it wasn't a weakness for any longer than a few months.
Just because of the nature of probability, you have to take "the field" when discussing which team will win the World Series. Strange things happen in the playoffs and during the season. If you want to make me pick one team to win the World Series, though? It has to be the Cubs. This year and for years to come.