Sophomore slumps

Despite a rough patch against Boston, Washington, the Twins remain a couple of games above .500. The problem, for once, hasn't been the pitching. There were a few rough bullpen outings, but the flaw they exposed was a fairly ineffective offense. Games were easily blown because the Twins are only scoring a couple of runs a game.

The finale of the Nationals series, and a series win against the Yankees may, and hopefully will render this column moot, but the sticking point for the Twins has been some notably foul offensive performances from players getting their second full run with the Twins. The worst offender has been Nick Gordon, who succeeded when leaned upon heavily last season. This season, he's been pushed out of the daily lineup because he has been so ineffective. This is technically Gordon's third season on the Major League roster, but I'll count this as a follow up to his breakout. It works!

Someone truly in their second year, and someone heavily relied upon to be an anchor at the middle of the lineup is Jose Miranda. Miranda concluded the series with the Yankees well, going 2-3 with 2 home runs in the loss. Unfortunately, those were Miranda's first home runs of the season. He had 4 hits to conclude the series with the Nationals, but before that series started, his OPS was .511. Event with a good stretch concluding with a 2 home run game, his OPS is finally above .600. Not great for a corner infielder.

The most prominent player in his second season with the Twins is Carlos Correa. His season is doubly problematic, because of the expectations tied to his team record contract. Correa started slowly last season as well, only to finish very strong, so this is an episode we have seen before. This year, Correa's OPS is lower than Miranda's, with an average right at the Mendoza line. Correa, at least, has the pedigree to lend some faith that he will bounce back. 

Correia will continue to get chances. He has a 6 year deal that explains why. It seems like Miranda will continue to play his way through his funk as well, The Twins made a move that said that, for at least a year or two, third base is definitely his. Cincinnati Reds third baseman Spencer Steer was part of the package sent for Tyler Mahle at the deadline last year. He would be in Minnesota, were it not for Miranda. If Miranda can't iron things out, however, he has only until Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis push him off the roster.

The most tenuous spot on the roster belongs to Nick Gordon. He hasn't been able to crack the lineup in order to work his way through his current issues. He is presently not getting into the lineup to break out of his slump, and might only last as long as Kyle Farmer's IL stint. After his breakout last year, he likely has a future in the league, even if he has a short leash with the Twins.

The Twins are clutch!

 Gigantic asterisk there, I guess. One of the incredible things about the last two seasons was that two years ago, the Twins were historically incompetent in late and close situations, or with runners in scoring position. Their offense was miserable, and it was largely because they were at their worst when the spotlight shone brightest. 

According to Fangraphs' "Clutch" score, the Twins were awful in 2021, performing much worse in high leverage situations than in normal circumstances. In 2022, they were markedly worse by the same metric. Per Fangraphs, "Clutch" should level off between 1 and -1, where negative numbers signify a lesser performance in big moments. Players usually don't magically become sustainably better or worse in certain situations. As such, a -2 rating is described as being "awful" in the clutch. Last year, the Twins Clutch score was -5.8. 

The balls haven't bounced Minnesota's way for two full seasons now. It's not your imagination. You can blame it on bad luck, or mental toughness or whatever, but the fact is there. The Twins have been inept in important situations.

Clutch is a rate statistic, and not a counting stat, so even this early into the season we can begin to get a read on whether or not the Twins will be snakebit again in 2023. It turns out that they are within the most likely range, of under 1. Still negative, but not absurdly so! 

That said, the Twins are 25th in the league in runs scored, despite finally getting an off day for the first time in April today. Acknowledging some injuries on the roster, the fact probably remains that the Twins probably just don't have a very good offense. At least they don't get worse in the important spots. 

The Twins had a good offseason, but do they need to prove it?

There are two themes to the Twins offseason that you have heard countless times by now. First, they sought to solidify their depth, particularly in the infield (beyond just the headline move of having Carlos Correa fall back into their lap), and second, aside from Pablo Lopez, they trusted the arms that they had in the system. 

So far, the strength of the team has been their pitching staff. Sonny Gray has been a revelation, including setting a career high for strike outs in his last start. Where there were rotation question marks, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda have answered them positively. Both had injury concerns coming into the year, but both have made some fans pause and consider that maybe the Twins' patience is worth it. It makes you think that they may be on to something with Chris Paddack.

Speaking of Chris Paddack, the greatest cause for alarm in the Twins roster was acquired with Paddack before the season opener last year. Emilio Pagan was the poster child for people wondering why the Twins didn't update the bullpen. Pagan has been effective in his limited work. In fact, the worst bullpen game this year featured Griffin Jax and Caleb Thielbar, who were not causes for concern. Another guy acquired last season, Jorge Lopez, looks to be reclaiming some of the fire he had with Baltimore last season. Jorge Alcala and Cole Sands have also had good results in limited work after not being significant factors last season. 

That's all well and good, but like any good insurance policy, the Twins can't be happy about having to use the one they acquired this winter, certainly not this early and often. Minnesota brought in Kyle Farmer first, then traded for Michael Taylor and finally signed Donovan Solano, all with the intent of providing depth to their Major League roster. Joey Gallo was also signed, though he always figured to get a little bit more playing time.

After the Twins kept the same lineup, essentially, for their first series with the Royals, they have now started Kyle Farmer every game for the last 5. Of course, that "same lineup" included Taylor, who is playing center while Byron Buxton ramps up. Now, after Alex Kirilloff (before the season started) and Max Kepler went on the shelf, Gallo moved from first into the outfield, bringing Solano into regular duty. He's played every day of the last 5 as well.

Oh, and then Gallo has been nicked up, and Matt Wallner was the season's first call up, and has started 3 games in a row as well.

It's been working thus far, thanks largely to the dominance of their starting rotation. A return to health, and for their depth strength to go back to being depth, rather than starters, would surely be appreciated, though, especially with a tough road trip on the near horizon.