It was bucolic for 2 full innings

 The Twins got on the board in the first inning with a solo bomb from Royce Lewis, and everyone was feeling good. Even when Maikel Franco tied the game as the first batter for Kansas City, nobody panicked. The Twins would later go ahead in the 3rd inning, and didn't relinquish it, because Pablo Lopez was just that good.

The regular season started and prediction season ended. This morning, I was having conversations with people and explaining that I thought that the team would be well over the predicted 84-87 mark some experts have been saying. Sure, the rotation took a step back, but the lineup should be more improved this year than the rotation is weakened. 

The Twins had Pablo Lopez today, and will have decent starters for the next 4 games as well. Let's say they did get that elusive top of the rotation starter (Sonny Gray last year). That would still leave 3 games that are not pitched by elite pitchers, those 40% of games the top of the rotation is working are lessened by days lost to injuries. Having a top rotation is crucial in the postseason, but through the grind of the regular season, it is much more important to have a consistent offense.

In 2019, the Twins won 101 games by relentlessly launching the ball to the stratosphere, all while featuring a rotation of Jose Berrios and.... others. Last season, the Twins had one of the best rotations they have had in decades, and managed to win 87 games, but they did claim a series in the playoffs. As was my original premise, the Twins are going to be better on offense, and won't be much worse in the rotation. More wins this year than last year.

Of course, then the game happened. Lewis tweaked his quad, and it is not yet known if the injury is serious. Later in the game, Max Kepler fouled a ball off of his knee. Kepler is not likely to need the IL, though Lewis is still a concern. The Twins have many young prospects ready to get time with the big league club, like Brooks Lee -- oh wait, Lee is on the AAA lL.

I revise my opinion, as I didn't take into account the MOA curse. The Twins will be lucky to win 65 game. 

We made it

 

After a long offseason that started with an unclear television future (and one that remains unclear) with little action in the offseason market, followed by a nearly ceaseless string of bullpen injuries, we are here, ready to watch real, regular season baseball on Bally Sports (if you can) or following along on the radio.

First pitch is 3:30 this afternoon from Kansas City, with Cory Provus on the TV mic, and Kris Atteberry on the radio at WCCO. I don't care if there is snow on the ground, summer is here. 

A suboptimal spring training update

 We've been humming along, getting ready for the season to start, with optimism continuing to grow as the season approached. This is always the most dangerous time to be a Twins fan. When things are going well, those same things are about to immediately go not so well.

And then boom, all of a sudden you get a MLBTR alert for this. That's three members of the pitching staff starting the season on the shelf. One of them, Anthony DeSclafani looks like he will be out for the entire season.  This is just another sign that we can't trust doctors in San Francisco (see: Sam Dyson, Carlos Correa).

Fortunately, this just puts the Twins back where they expected to be before the offseason began. Louie Varland will be the 5th starter, until depth is needed. At that point, Brett Headrick and Simeon Woods-Richardson will be called upon to round out the rotation. It isn't ideal, but it wasn't fully unanticipated.

There are also a couple of relievers on the shelf. Caleb Thielbar has been touch and go all spring, and the Twins added Steven Okert for left handed depth in the offseason. Kody Funderburk will likely break camp with the team as well, providing some more left handed depth. 

All of this is obfuscating the big news, which is that Jhoan Duran was among the players to go on the IL Fortunately, Duran's injury also seems to be the most mild, and he should return some time in May. In the mean time, however, losing one of the best relievers in baseball is a tough situation.

It tinkers with the rhythm of the bullpen. For example, Griffin Jax may be asked to close games, instead of setting them up, while a middle reliever used to longer outings might be working shorter, higher leverage appearances. And then when Duran comes back, these changes are going to have to be shuffled back, with players not getting a chance to settle into their role. 

This is where some of those losses are compounded, as well. Last season, Louie Varland stepped into a relief role late in the season and in the postseason, and was excellent. In a situation where the Twins might prefer another power arm in the bullpen, Varland would be a viable option were he not needed in the rotation.

Ultimately, the Twins will need to grind out these first couple of weeks. They might be fortunate, and the need for a closer will be limited, or the difference between Duran and Jax isn't felt deeply for the few times Jax might step into the role. Varland and DeSclafani likely weren't going to produce much differently anyway, though the injury impacts the depth of the rotation. If they do want to make a move, signing Michael Lorenzen, who is still on the market, would give the Twins a versatile pitcher that could bolster either part of the pitching staff if an injury strikes again. The season doesn't start for the Twins for a little more than a week, so don't rule anything out with this front office.

The Twins got their first taste of reality amid the overwhelming optimism, and really, it wasn't as bad as it could have been.

I think this is what Instagram is for?

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 This is just the most recent in the @Twins question of the day series, and frankly, they are all fantastic, and all fairly telling of the relationship the players all have with each other, the dynamic of the clubhouse and generally, the sense of humor each player has.

As we get closer to the season, it's good to see the team is loose and ready for action. We're all just waiting for the season to start. Why not be a little weird. 

The Twins bounce back year

 I think if you asked any Twins fans who the most valuable player on the team last year, I think everyone would easily point to Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez. It makes the consternation over Gray's departure much more understandable. How do you replace the most productive player on the team? The fact that the Twins seemingly didn't even try is a real puzzler.

Let's look at it from a different angle, though. Do you know who the most valuable position player was, at least in terms of WAR on Baseball-Reference? Would you have guessed Ryan Jeffers? Would you have also guessed that the next 5 players on the list are all returning this year? And further, would the names Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have been the next names on your list?

Jeffers, Julien, Lewis and Wallner are all ascendent players. The last three weren't even on the roster for the better part of the year, and thrived when they got here. Jeffers was expected to be Christian Vazquez's back up. Undoubtedly, with a full compliment of at bats and expectations of productivity, at least half of these players are going to be even more productive in 2024.

Oh, and you know what? Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton didn't even appear on this list. Correa and Buxton of 2022 would have cleared Jeffers. Correa would have even cleared Gray, and Buxton would have slotted between Gray and Lopez, and would have been #1 and #2 most productive on the team. There is a reasonable expectation that with health, and both appear fully healthy, they will augment the lineup this season.

The Twins replaced two other members of the roster more directly. Carlos Santana takes the spot of Donovan Solano, while Manuel Margot replaces Michael A. Taylor. Santana is probably a shade better than Solano, while Margot may take a step back, but that speaks more to the expectations for Buxton's health than anything. 

Depth is a wild card. There are several prospects on the cusp of arriving on the scene. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and a returning Jose Miranda can all add a little bit of their own input on the lineup. Even healthy Alex Kirilloff, paired with Santana and a splash of Trevor Larnach will help ensure there won't be many protracted offensive slumps.

Even before you start getting to the depth, which is much more of a lottery ticket, consider the roster they do have. consider the very probable bounce back campaign for the two super star players, who are only 29 and 30, and the continued development of the young contributors, and its not hard to see this as a formidable lineup in 2024.

The Twins really like Chris Paddack

 So much of this offseason has been about money, and specifically, how much the Twins aren't spending, and how much, even more specifically, they aren't spending on free agent pitchers. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all left, but three lower cost, younger players off of the 2023 rotation are still suiting up in 2024: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

The other name expected to take a big role in the Twins rotation next year is Chris Paddack, who the Twins acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade of a couple years ago. While Emilio Pagan had a couple of years in the Twins' bullpen, it was Paddack who attracted the Twins to the deal in the first place. After nearly two full seasons out with Tommy John surgery, Paddack is ready to go in 2024.

In two seasons as a member of the Twins, Paddack has been worth 1 win above replacement, despite only having only 27 innings of work. Paddack hasn't been dissimilar to the pitcher he was in San Diego, either, and while there would will always be concern about his health, Paddack's biggest issue affecting his numbers with Minnesota has been a high batting average on balls in play. His raw numbers, the ERA, should settle in lower than what it's been if his elbow has properly healed. 

Even while Paddack was on the shelf, the Twins signed him to an extension in anticipation of this season. There has been a lot of consternation about the Twins' lack of an addition to the rotation, and a lot of it was blamed on payroll. Part of it should be blamed on the expectations for Paddack to be a vital part of the rotation. It has been in the works for two years, and even i the fans aren't yet fully on board, the front office believes that Paddack is at least the Maeda replacement, if not the Sonny Gray replacement.

With Lopez and the increasing veteran stature of Ryan and Ober already in the front of the rotation, there is no pressure on Paddack to fulfill that role at the top of the rotation either, at least not externally. At the very least, the Twins already have Paddack penciled in as a very good 4th starter, but I have to believe the expect so much more.