Friday, March 29, 2024

It was bucolic for 2 full innings



 The Twins got on the board in the first inning with a solo bomb from Royce Lewis, and everyone was feeling good. Even when Maikel Franco tied the game as the first batter for Kansas City, nobody panicked. The Twins would later go ahead in the 3rd inning, and didn't relinquish it, because Pablo Lopez was just that good.

The regular season started and prediction season ended. This morning, I was having conversations with people and explaining that I thought that the team would be well over the predicted 84-87 mark some experts have been saying. Sure, the rotation took a step back, but the lineup should be more improved this year than the rotation is weakened. 

The Twins had Pablo Lopez today, and will have decent starters for the next 4 games as well. Let's say they did get that elusive top of the rotation starter (Sonny Gray last year). That would still leave 3 games that are not pitched by elite pitchers, those 40% of games the top of the rotation is working are lessened by days lost to injuries. Having a top rotation is crucial in the postseason, but through the grind of the regular season, it is much more important to have a consistent offense.

In 2019, the Twins won 101 games by relentlessly launching the ball to the stratosphere, all while featuring a rotation of Jose Berrios and.... others. Last season, the Twins had one of the best rotations they have had in decades, and managed to win 87 games, but they did claim a series in the playoffs. As was my original premise, the Twins are going to be better on offense, and won't be much worse in the rotation. More wins this year than last year.

Of course, then the game happened. Lewis tweaked his quad, and it is not yet known if the injury is serious. Later in the game, Max Kepler fouled a ball off of his knee. Kepler is not likely to need the IL, though Lewis is still a concern. The Twins have many young prospects ready to get time with the big league club, like Brooks Lee -- oh wait, Lee is on the AAA lL.

I revise my opinion, as I didn't take into account the MOA curse. The Twins will be lucky to win 65 game. 

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