The Twins need to hit

I think the local panic meter hit 11 after Bailey Ober's disastrous outing on Sunday in Kansas City. As the third starter in a rotation that lost key components in the offseason, then the bullpen lost key elements in the preseason, it appeared as the pitching staff is going to be a real problem. 

Long term, it will sort itself out. There is enough at the top of the rotation, and steady and reliable options further down in Louis Varland, a healthy Chris Paddack and yes, even Bailey Ober. The bullpen is yet to be a problem, and will be reinforced soon. Ultimately, though, Minnesotans spend too much time worrying about the pitching.

Last year, the Twins had inarguably the best pitching staff they have had in a generation, and ultimately won 87 games. In 2019, their pitching was worse than it is now (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda were the top, but Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez were regulars in a fairly healthy unit) but managed to win over 100 games for the first time since 1965.

Why? Because they were pounding the heck out of the ball. That was the year that the Twins set home run records and piled on runs nearly every game. Regular season success coincides with the ability to score runs. The Twins were lucky to get to the postseason because of the moribund AL Central, then, as the adage goes, they won in the postseason because pitching wins championships.

To start the season, the Twins have cobbled together 11 runs. 9 of which came in the first two games of the season. Through their first 4 games, only 4 players, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Manuel Margot and Matt Wallner have wOBA above .320, considered to be "average", and Lewis is out, Wallner is a platoon player and Buxton and Margot play the same position. 

If you prefer counting stats, Lewis is the only one with a home run, despite facing the murderers row of pitchers that the Royals offer, and Jakob Junis, a former Royal. It's crucial to get Lewis bat taking cuts, but it shouldn't be THIS crucial.

In the projections for the season, too many people have discounted the Twins chances. Sure, plenty of people have the Twins winning the AL Central, but at or below the win total they had in 2023. I insisted that they would not, because Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa would be back to form, Christian Vazquez would hit better and they would have full seasons featuring Lewis, Edouard Julien, Wallner and Ryan Jeffers. 

It's yet to click at the plate through the first handful of games, and injuries to Lewis and a scare to Max Kepler surely don't help. If the Twins are going to reach the levels that I believe they can, they are going to need to produce more at the plate. If they can't score even 3 runs a game, it won't matter how good their pitching is.