End of the year house cleaning

 It is unfortunate, but we find ourselves rapidly approaching the offseason. There is some table setting for the winter from the organization, and while none of the news is going to make headlines during football season, it is still important in the direction of the team going forward. Let's touch on a couple of things. 

First, there was the announcement from Derek Falvey that they intended to keep Rocco Baldelli on as manager. Regardless of where you or I come down on the matter, I think this indicates that Falvey attributes the collapse this season on injuries, and not managerial incompetence. Perhaps more importantly, if Falvey is making these statements, it suggeests that the Pohlads think this too, and that they won't get in the way of offseason activity.

The other bit of news surrounded Byron Buxton, who has had arthroscopic knee surgery. Not only are we cleaning houses, apparently, we are also cleaning knees. This was a surgery that could have waited if the Twins were still in contention, and will be a quick recovery. Getting this knocked out early sets Buxton up for a full offseason of healthy preparation for 2023. It also opens up the roster for guys like Matt Wallner for the rest of the year, short though it is.

As Aaron Gleeman noted at The Athletic ($) today, many players who picked up knocks were out longer than expected, never came back, or went right back on the shelf. Now is not the time to rush players back. Who knows, maybe there is an overlooked diamond in this rough season out there. At the very worst, it is fun to see guys like Caleb Hamilton get a taste of Major League action, or for Nick Gordon to round out his year in the outfield. 

We've reached the part of the season where the most important part of this year is planning for next year. It will mean a rocky set of games to finish the year, and won't make much of a splash, but it's what we have to do to finish things off.

They've done it before, Do it again!

 Optimism is hard, especially for a fanbase that has been hard pressed to find good results for over 30 years. The narrative around the team over the last month, foisted upon us especially by a local radio show, is that the front office and management have lead this team to ruin. I'm not here to argue about that, as I've done that quite a bit.

I'm here to point to one thing that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done well, over and over again. They sign guys that we never believed they would. They signed Josh Donaldson, they signed Carlos Correa, and they knocked the Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco extensions pretty well out of the park. The Twins front office isn't afraid of making big moves.

And because of the moves they have made, and the contracts they have, they aren't underwater on anything, and have significantly less on the books for less year than they do this year. In the past, the Twins have attempted first to sign pitchers that might help put the team over the hump, but were unable to make those splashes. Looking at this years free agent crop, there aren't many high end pitchers that I could imagine the Twins vying for.

My analysis of the last few offseasons is that the Twins have wanted to sign pitchers, but when the big names decided they didn't want to come to Minnesota, they threw money at high value bats like Donalson and Correa. I don't know what would have changed. There are few Aces on the market, and the Twins have a lot of cash on hand. Since their shot at landing a top pitcher are limited, or has been unsuccessful before, why not make that flashy splash earlier in the offseason?

What I am saying is, I think the Twins have a more realistic shot at extending Carlos Correa than many people speculate. Royce Lewis may be the short stop of the future, but that future might be a little bleak, given two ACL surgeries. Still, Lewis is in the top 100 on the prospect lists. Without a clear future after Correa is hypothetically resigned, Lewis could be a huge asset for a huge trade for a younger starting pitcher.

But I'm getting ahead of myself. The point is, the Twins have the means, and have shown in the past the will to make big moves. Re-signing Correa is not at all out of the realm of possibility, and I would say makes a lot of sense. 

The plan of action will be a plan for action

 I'm not sure that this season could have met a more catastrophic end. Sure, the Twins were able to look like they had a pulse when they would play teams like the Royals, Red Sox and Giants, but when they squared off against foes with any semblance of competence, the wheels swiftly and dramatically came off. To wit, they have gone 1-9 against the Cleveland Guardians, the team presently in first place in the Central. First place by a lot after running rough shod over the Twins.

There has been an incredible amount of ill will towards the Twins in response to this pitiful end of the year. Judd Zulgad and Phil Mackey pin a lot of blame on Rocco Baldelli. Aaron Gleeman questions the decisions of the front office. Sure, questions can be asked of all of them, and I maintain that three years in a row of bad luck (i.e. another rough year next year) can no longer really be called bad luck any longer. But we aren't there yet.

I can also appreciate the opinion that the Twins need to make some moves. It would be intolerable for a team to crater like the Twins have and just stand pat in the offseason. The Twins were expected to finish approximately where they will finish - around .500, but the path to getting there has made everyone look bad. Looking at where things went sour should direct the Twins as to where they should proceed this off -season. 

The inflection point of this season, to me, was late May. I think that rings true for a lot of people, as it was their last winning month. It was also the month in which Wes Johnson left the team, and injuries started to pile up. They have to be related, right? So then it has to be addressed. 

Before anything else, the pitching coaching staff must be overhauled. Pete Maki was in over his as a midseason replacement. Maybe a full offseason of preparation would do wonders, but then, Maki was the minor league pitching coordinator since 2017, and should have a decent feel for the team and the players. If the Twins wanted to keep him on the staff, that is one thing, but I have to believe that Maki and bullpen coach Colby Suggs need to be replaced to even begin to appease the naysayers. 

I'm not a medical expert, so I have no idea how to treat this situation. The trainers and doctors on staff are probably very good. They have certainly been busy. But something tangible needs to be addressed. Even if it is bad luck, that luck is bound to change, and the front office would look like they had done something credible to resolve an overwhelming issue from the prior season. Whatever it is they do. Add a trainer, remove a trainer, introduce an organization wide calisthenics program for the offseason. Something! 

But make no mistake, this is a front office that WILL do something. Whenever they've had a hole to fill, they've tried to fill it. Right now might be the time to be forthright with what went wrong, and what they were trying to do. The pitching staff situation makes sense to me, even if it doesn't to everyone. The team started with Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer, Josh Winder, and Chris Paddack, 7 starters for 5 spots. Archer and Paddack have not been healthy for a while, and Winder was just now becoming a major leaguer. 

I think the Twins were attempting to have a two starter per game system. They were famously quick to remove starters after two turns through a lineup, and having Chris Archer and Chris Paddack combine to go through full games would save their arms and the bullpen, all while putting together an elite performance. Dylan Bundy and Josh Winder could do the same, or with one or two injuries, they could have hoped that Griffin Jax, (who ultimately landed in the 'pen), Jordan Balazovic or Cole Sands could have dropped into one of those low exposure roles.

I think it could have worked, but they were beset by injuries. Archer was over exposed and the bullpen was overworked. Nobody ever seemed to come back, and then the pitching coach left. We haven't heard this explanation from the front office yet. If this is an accurate assessment, we should! One of the criticisms has been that they don't know how to add starters. Laying this plan out would have demonstrated at least, well, a plan.

And then, after that, I have no solid advice, or even wishes for this organization. They have done everything I've wanted. They've been aggressive in acquiring assets. They resigned Byron Buxton, and even shelled out for Josh Donaldson and then Carlos Correa. They've become more modern in almost every way, and they are still getting the same results as the team did before they took over. 

This front office has been calculated when playing the free agent market, but they've always come away with players. Being calculated doesn't mean cheap, and they have shelled out for players that will come here. They've traded at deadlines where they were sellers and buyers. At least when taken at odds with the prior administrations, they will do something this offseason. Maybe they won't fix what is ailing this team, but Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and Rocco Baldelli are sure going to try. 

The Twins are cooked, but what about their employees?

 

It's getting to be pretty dark out here in Twins Territory. The Twins were a game and a half out of first and welcomed the Cleveland Guardians to town, looking to make some serious inroads in the final month of the season. The Twins never led for any of the series, and now find themselves 5 games out of first. I've considered myself a more positive fan than most of the fan base, but even I have to admit -- the Twins are cooked. 

As often happens in beleaguered markets, many fans are openly speculating on whether or not the front office or manager Rocco Baldelli may potentially be on the outs. Almost certainly not. Rocco Baldelli can't be held to account because a league leading number of his players have spent time on the injured list this season. That said, with the tumult on his coaching staff this year, and the absolute meltdown of the offense, it wouldn't surprise me if there were new pitching or hitting coaches next year.

Thad Levine openly said they were going to try to get weird with the pitching set up, but given he injuries they had, they simply looked like they had an incompetent offseason, because they had to fall into a more typical pitching cadence that didn't work for this team. Imagine how differently it would go if Dylan Bundy got to pair with Bailey Ober, Chris Archer with Chris Paddack. But even if there were longer starts, they still needed to generate a better bullpen. That too was afflicted by injury, but even in full health, it was suspect.

Derek Falvey came to Minnesota promising to develop pitchers. And he has. Consider that the Twins added and develop Jhoan Duran in a trade with the Diamondbacks. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are former double digit draft picks. Randy Dobnak was signed out of independent ball. The Twins have developed pitchers. In fact, most of the top 30 pitching prospects were drafted in the 4th round or later. This is a systemic strength, the ability to make prospects out of lowly regarded pitchers. 

Of course, the Twins also have a knack for signing players that perform at a level that is not consistent with expectations, and find themselves injured too often. That is a discredit to organizational scouting and the training staff. And Levine's pitching strategy exposed the team to a lot of risk, and the worst case scenario came to pass with a reluctance to adapt. Even the healthy players for Rocco Baldelli failed to hit in the clutch. Seizing up in pressure situations was a hallmark of the Gardenhire tenure, and this is the second year in a row of this in the regular season. At some point, Baldelli will have to answer for this as well, fair or not.

Nobody should lose their job over this season, but if changes aren't made in their approach to near, time on this particular organizational tenure may be winding short.

Enough about the pitching, the offense is junk too

 It's no secret that the Twins were a completely different team in the beginning of the season as they are now. Practically literally. Between trades and injuries, there has been some tumult in the roster. Consider that Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober are 6th and 7th on the team in pitching WAR, and they haven't pitched since their 5th and 7th starts, respectively. 

I've long noted that the Twins have sustained a ton of injuries that impacted how they wanted to use their pitching staff. Ultimately, they attempted to straighten thing out by using a more traditional method. They added an innings eating starter, a strong middle reliever and a flame throwing closer, which should, at least, mollify the villagers with pitchforks for the moment.

What has been particularly excruciating to me is just how incompetent the offense has seemed of late. For much of August and early September, the Twins have found points to be at a premium. They started the second half unable to score runs after about the third inning, and now, they seem only to score after the 7th inning, leaving long tracts of the game to be scoreless. We've talked about the pitching, and the Twins have tried to address it. But what happened to the offense?

First, who were the drivers of the success of the first half? By WAR, the top 9 are Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis and Gio Urshela. Larnach, Buxton and Lewis have missed extended tracts of time since that date. That's 1/3 of the players the team relied upon early, on top of contributors like Alex Kirilloff or Ryan Jeffers, who stepped up later, and are also on the shelf.

Since the beginning of June, we've seen the rise of Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon, but also the collapse of Max Kepler and to a lesser extent, Luis Arraez. Carlos Correa has really stepped up his productivity in the last two weeks, and is the primary driver of the offense right now, but 5 important members of the offense are missing.

Kepler has been walking less since the beginning of the year, and his hitting for significantly less power, seeing his early season ISO drop from .180 to .86, nearly a full .100 points. His BABIP has also dropped significantly as his inability to hit around the shift has become more apparent. 

Arraez is still doing ok, but his last two months have seen sub .300 batting averages, as perhaps the pressure of the batting title hunt are getting to him. Support behind him in the lineup being lost to injury or ineffectiveness surely don't help. He's also walking a lot less, perhaps trying to go for those base hits, and his BABIP is plunneting as he isn't making the same kind of contact, though he has found a power stroke.

That's 5 players, the three injured and two whose production has lessened significantly, who are affecting the offensive output. It's tough to deal with injuries, but Kepler and Arraez can offer some tips for the rest of a lineup mired in a slump at the worst time of year. Both are walking less as they press harder. Calm down, and let opposing pitchers make mistakes. Try to relax and don't press. 

The pressure is on as the Twins slip further out of first place, and the funk the offense is in looks more and more like a lethal flaw to their postseson hopes.