Popularity in England, but not in America

 I like listening to the radio, either over the air or streaming. Over the air is good for listening to baseball, stupid blackout restrictions and whatnot, but streaming opens up the world. I like listening to the local stations because they are one of the few bastions of community left in the world, but I also like to listen to streams from across the country, and across the world. 

I was listening to BBC 1 recently, getting a taste of England. English and American musical taste is parallel but not the same. Often, English artists come to the States and are very successful, and often the alternate is true. The BBC 1 crew was discussing this phenomenon and specifically their surprise at a pair of artists not hitting in the US like they did in the US.

The first was Estelle, who I had indeed heard of. She has charted twice in the States, once with American Boy, a top ten song that featured Kanye West. It was #1 on the UK charts, and peaked at #9 in the US. She also featured on Conquerer, which gained acclaim after being covered with Jussie Smollett on Empire. She's had a steady career in Europe, and was the first artist signed to John Legend's label. All of the signs were there for some American success. I mean, her first big hit even had "American" in the title. 

One thing that you need to succeed in the US, to make a long term impact is to be different. While Estelle is different than a lot of the offerings in the UK market, she had a lot of overlap with many American artists, and came at the end of a surge of R&B popularity. Now 42, it doesn't seem like Estelle needs to worry about diversifying her audience, and her peak was just at the wrong time. She had a hit, then disappeared from American charts, like so many similar artists. 

The other artist BBC 1 speculated on was Stormzy. Stormzy has never had a song chart in the US, but if you have watched any movie that took place in the UK, I'm sure you have heard his voice. Stormzy is undoubtedly the best English rapper, if not one of the most prolific. His sound has become intrinsically tied to the action and toughness of modern London.

It's not hard to figure out why Stormzy is popular. His flow is one of the most technically sound I've heard. The tracks he raps on are catchy and well suited for his lyrics and inclusion in whatever Guy Ritchie movie he is on the soundtrack for. Most importantly, he is inarguably English.

What makes him great in England is probably what limits Stormzy in the US. Sure, he is gifted and talented, but what sells a lot of hip hop artists to their audience is their relatability and authenticity. "Too big for your boots, but you'll never be too big for the boot" is a well crafted threat in England that doesn't make much sense to an American audience. "Got holes in my lapel/ from rubbing shoulders with your girl" would not rhyme when sung by a North American. 

Stormzy might as well be an alien. Americans can accept a Canadian that sounds like them (Drake) but having someone use vernacular that is totally foreign to the audience just doesn't work. It doesn't connect, when for many people it is lyrics that attract them to an artist or a song. If you are familiar with English slang and admire artistry, Stormzy is a hit, but that doesn't reflect the American audience writ large. 

Estelle and Stormzy are rightfully popular in England, and anyone that is open minded and willing to seek them out will probably enjoy them, especially if you like R&B or hip hop. Popularity in England speaks to talent, but it doesn't always translate across the Atlantic. Both artists simply had barriers to trans-Atlantic success that they haven't and probably won't overcome. 

Luis Arraez is here to stay

 Imagine hearing, after all the machinations of the offseason, extending Byron Buxton, adding Carlos Correa, revamping the pitching staff and promoting the top organizational prospect, that the All Star Game push by the Minnesota Twins would be for Luis Arraez to get voted into the Mid Summer classic. 

Arraez was the subject of speculation since his debut three years ago. Obviously, Arraez had a little bit more skill than had been expected when he first arrived at Target Field, but the Twins already had a second baseman in Jorge Polanco, especially if they could add a legitimate short stop. And besides, how much sustained success could this 5'10 bundle of energy have?

The pandemic years weren't as kind to Arraez. He was still good, but not the special player he is today. His average was .294, and mostly empty. Arraez doesn't hit for power, and his average wasn't one that necessitated inclusion in the lineup. As a result, his name cropped up this season in trade rumors as a potential piece to be included in a package for a starter.

Now, in mid-June, Arraez leads the league in batting average and on base percentage, reaffirming the promise he had in 2019. He still doesn't hit for a lot of power, but he is on base all the time, either with a walk or a hit. He's taken over at first in the absence of Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff, and his glove is hidden there much better than in the corner outfield. The Twins are working to put him at the top of the lineup when they can, and it is paying off.

And don't forget that Arraez is now one of the more long tenured members of the team, even though he is only 25. His comfort in the Majors and in the clubhouse is allowing some of his quirky side to come out. He's gaining popularity with fans who are getting to know him, and seems to already be a hit in the clubhouse.

The Twins ultimately balked on using Arraez in a trade, and the benefit is a likely All Star and a potential batting champion. Sometimes, it pays to hold on to what you have. 

A shortstop for the long term

Royce Lewis was right there. He seemed like he had turned on the talent this year after two years away and a slower start than he hoped before that, and then it all came crashing down, literally, when he crashed into the center field fence in his first day back from St. Paul. It took a while, but eventually he was assessed to need ACL surgery, again, and would miss a year of action, again.

Lewis was trying to become more versatile in his time in St. Paul, but ultimately, it looked like the Twins were going to be in good shape for a long time at short stop. Carlos Correa is there this year, but is not expected to stick around for the long term, but it was ok, Royce Lewis was coming.

Maybe Lewis will recover, but I've seen this play out before. One knee injury is one thing, but having to have an ACL pieced back together twice is another. One of Lewis's elite skills was his speed, and now it is fair to wonder if he will still have that after his second surgery. That will affect his range at short, and hamper his baserunning for sure.

The Twins obtained high level prospect Austin Martin at last years deadline, and his pedigree and performance within the Blue Jays organization led some to believe that he would arrive in the Majors soon. The Twins, with Lewis already in the fold also signed Correa this offseason, leading me to believe that the Twins viewed Martin as a trade chip. His slow start, at the very least, tells us that he certainly isn't ready to be the team's short stop next season.

A nice thing about the Twins' situation is that they have removed almost all future financial obligations. They also have a stable of young talent that indicates that the team will be flush with good players for a few years. It seems to me that there is an obvious solution to their predicament all the way around. Try to lock up Carlos Correa long term.

The team is in a better place this offseason when it comes to the pitching rotation, and has historically been reluctant to overextend their payroll to pitchers anyways. Aside from shortstop, the biggest question mark the teams have on the roster is at catcher, and there aren't many commanding names that would take up payroll there, either. From a position of financial capability, extending Correa seems feasible.

For the long term future, both Lewis and Martin were being groomed for greater positional flexibility. Either could bounce around the field if it becomes more important to get their bat in the lineup, similar to the position that Luis Arraez finds himself in presently. Alternatively, this could return Martin, at least, to the "trade chip" position he had previously found himself in, as the Twins might want to supplement their rotation now or in the future. The Twins are spoiled for options if Correa is in the fold. 

I would suggest an offer of 8 years for $280m, securing the next two years at the 37.5 rate that Correa is currently making, and $34.17mm the six following years. It would be an enormous commitment, and a show of confidence from the organization that they are going to keep pushing to succeed, and a sign that top free agents are willing to come to Minnesota and stay here. 

With the ages of their roster and the dearth of financial commitments, the Twins are in a good spot to throw a lot of money at a player they like. They have demonstrated reluctance at spending big on pitching, and the clubhouse has grown to really like Correa. If Scott Boras allows it, then let it be done.

PJ Fleck and his X's and O's

 

In many ways, the role of a college head coach is more difficult than that of a professional coach. The NFL coach doesn't have to recruit throughout the season like the college coach does. This is why you often hear about coaches being either good recruiters, but not good game day coaches, or vice versa. It's hard to find someone that can do both.

Gophers coach has had a reputation as the former. His relentless positivity seems like something that would appeal to recruits, and coming off a 13-0 season at Western Michigan, the Gophers likely hoped that the success would speak for itself and encourage a rush of new Gophers enrollees that would push Minnesota to the top of the league. 

And the Gophers standing did improve in the recruiting world. They were regularly in the 11-14th range when the Big Ten teams were rated at the end of the class period. Since Fleck, they have generally been between the 6th and 10th spots in those same rankings. Minnesota will probably never surpass Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State, but I think a lot of local fans would expect Minnesota to be able to pull prospects as regularly as Michigan State or Wisconsin, and certainly be more capable than Nebraska or Iowa. 

There have been ramifications on the field. The Gophers were in the doldrums after the calamitous end to the Jerry Kill/Tracy Claeys era, but the Gophers have finished tied for first or second in each of the last two years. They had a good team in 2020 as well, but were hampered by a difficult schedule in conference and a lack of non conference games. They have regularly beaten Nebraska, and have been in contention with Iowa and Wisconsin, to the point that it is a disappointment if they lose, and not an expectation.

Fleck didn't win at Western Michigan because of his recruiting. They were 13-0 in his final year there, and he hadn't even had a senior class yet. The Gophers are playing above their talent level fairly consistently. It's time to recognize that his attitude and locker room presence are generally good for the health of the program. Fleck, even with the outgoing, positive attitude, must be a decent game day coach. 

The Gophers and their fans are going to have to hope that's the case, because in 2022, there was a precipitous drop off. Fleck's Gophers were the lowest ranked team in the entire conference to the past year. I guess now we will really see what kind of a coach he is. 

Dall - E's best efforts at a Twins logo

 If you've been deeply into the internet lately, you may have seen people posting AI generated images from Dall E (a mashup of Wall:E and Dali, as in Salvador). It takes text prompts and turns them into a set of 9 computer generated, often absurdist and terrifying images. The only limit is your imagination.

One user tried her hands at simply replicating corporate brands, and with hilarious results. The entire thread is wacky. I haven't been able to get Dall E to put recognizable letters in many spots yet (Edit: I found it is because she is using Dall E 2, which I won't bother to get access for), but she did, and it is weird. Naturally, I had to try it, and did so with the Twins. My prompt was "Minnesota Twins alternate logo" in the hope that it would tap into the Minnie and Paul shaking hands across the Mississippi logo. In the end, all it did was give me a red background for most of them. Fair.

#1: This is the only one with a white background. I like that it appears to be painted on a deck, and how the C is folded into the top of the T. Clever! 

#2: This looks like an upside down anchor. You can sort of make out a T, but the rest looks not unlike an upside down S and a P. A T with an S and a P..... This is a secret Saints logo! 

#3: This is clearly a T and a C, and it looks like a little fish in the bottom, but I am not sure what is going on on the right side of this picture. Looks a little like a lacrosse stick, or that thing they use in jai alai. You know, jai alai.

#4: This is a nightmare. It looks like a drunken Detroit script D, which dropped it's bottle of booze because it was trying to hold it with a baseball glove. These things are a real Rorschach test. 

#5: This is a T falling in a hole, as painted by MC Escher. 

#6: Listen, the Twins have been going to a more red focused theme for a while now, but we don't have to give them a fully red ensemble in their logo, do we? Oh, you're going to put a floor length overcoat on it? Cool, then, I guess.

#7: You can see the vaguest semblance of a T here, but the swooping red lines are really only designed to accost that black and orange thing. What is that thing? Why, it looks like a Baltimore Orioles head that is extremely unhappy to have a red swoosh shoved into it.

You don't have to like it, but it's there. 

#8: I have no idea what's going on here, but if I were to hazard a guess, it is a pants-sagging, "cool" TC, and the pants pattern is the Minnie and Paul logo I've been looking for. 

#9: All right, that's it. This is a family site. 

Maybe it's time for a soft reset

 One thing that this season has illustrated is that the Twins have the major and minor league depth to remain competitive even with injuries and disease running rampant through the organization. Another important thing that a lot of people have touched upon is the value of good vibes. Replacing Josh Donaldson with Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez and replacing his money with Carlos Correa's money have led to a more harmonious clubhouse. Winning helps, sure, but don't doubt the value of getting along.

With both of those factors in mind, it might behoove the team for the rest of this season and the next to purge the roster of players that just don't fit. There is likely a capable replacement already in the organization, or, given the glut of top level talent in the minors, an available replacement on the trade market. 

Three long time Twins, in particular, could see their way off the roster either this season or next. Tyler Duffey has been with the organization about as long as any pitcher in the organization, but this season, it seems as though he has run out of gas. It seems at this point that he is still with the team as a courtesy after his long and eventful Twins career. It's unfortunate to say, but at this juncture it seems that almost any pitcher on the roster could surpass Duffey for reliability. When that happens, it's probably time for the organization to move on.

Miguel Sano has been derided for nearly his entire career. He's been the perfect blend of high strike out rate and uncomfortable off field issues. The Twins ignored the allegations and the strike out rate for his tantalizing power prospects. Now, he's having one of his patented bad starts (though peripheral data suggests he might be more honed in than normal) but won't have an opportunity to recover because of a torn meniscus.

The Twins have already replaced Sano's on field presence, somehow, with Luis Arraez. Byron Buxton has turned into the power hitter that the team wanted Sano to be, and if the roster clicks like it is designed to, Sano is superfluous. Finally, the team will make everyone find a new pariah, and move on from the big first baseman when they decline his option this winter.

The last player is one who is actually doing pretty well, and doesn't get as much scorn. Max Kepler has had some awkward missteps that seem out of line with the rest of the roster, and from this 1000 foot view, hasn't seemed to gel with the new rostermates as well as some of his fellow holdovers. After all the tension and blowback surrounding Andrelton Simmons' decision to remain unvaccinated last season, it is strange that Kepler left the team when they went to Toronto, and really remained silent about it while Caleb Thielbar and Emilio Pagan were open about their decision. He's also been, at best, tone deaf around the turmoil in Minneapolis, even though his typical outfield spot is right next to an aspiring community leader in Byron Buxton. 

It's not to say that these are reasons in and of themselves for Kepler to be on the block, but rather that there are signs that the clubhouse could be a bit more harmonious without him in it. This wouldn't even be a talking point if the Twins weren't also seeing the rapid emergence of Trevor Larnach and Gilberto Celestino, with Alex Kirilloff ready to emerge from St. Paul as well. Kepler hasn't made enough waves on the field to push clubhouse fit out of the conversation. 

Kepler actually has another year under a reasonable contract, meaning that he could be a tantalizing trade chip to a team that may soon want to return to contention, or a team looking to upgrade for a playoff push this year. There would be options if the team decided to recalibrate. It's not time to overhaul this team, not when they are in first place, but the Twins seem poised to fully embrace the next wave. 

New rules, new bullpen

The biggest complaint I had about Paul Molitor as a manager, and this is a common refrain for many managers (looking at you, Robin Ventura) was that they overmanaged the bullpen, especially early in the season. Managers would try to game good pitching to batting matchups, and were known to change pitchers multiple times in the same inning. This caused the game to drag on with the pauses in action, and put an undue burden on all these pitchers. They might only get 8 pitches in an outing, but they would have to throw in the bullpen to get warmed up with much more frequency. 

Rules have changed to required pitchers to pitch to at least three batters an appearance, barring injury. As a result the LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) is going extinct, while managers are leaning on relievers a bit more, and front offices are adapting to the changes. Note the emergence of Griffin Jax, a former starter, as a solid bullpen piece. Jhoan Duran was viewed as a starting prospect as well, and the front office added pieces like Chris Archer, undoubtedly for depth, but also with an eye towards work out of the pen as players got healthy, or jumped to the majors. 

And thus, the managerial criticisms have changed too. I used to not appreciate Molitor getting away with his overwhelming number of pitching changes, but now, Rocco Baldelli gets roasted by fans for leaving pitchers in too long. The calculus has changed, and rather abruptly for teams and managers. Guys who were used to facing only one or two batters at a time in some appearances, must now work entire innings or more. 

Especially with early season outings, it is important to acclimate pitchers to their conditions. I don't think any manager wants a pitcher to throw until they have nothing left in the tank every time on the mound, and for relievers, that means stretching them out a little in early season games. While we may not want Baldelli to leave a pitcher in for an entire inning, it might be part of a conditioning process for next time, so the Cody Stashak (or whoever) can pitch comfortably to three batters, because he knows he could pitch to 5 if he needed to. 

Creating this rule has been one of the smarter things that baseball has done. Mid-inning pitching changes were the biggest delays in a regular game, and they are significantly fewer of them now. Theoretically, it will also encourage more offense because it will be tougher to match pitchers to hitters, and will save arms in the long run. It is just taking a little time for teams, managers and fans to adapt to the new world.