The drain always circles back to injuries

 

Injuries have been a constant part of the Twins overall narrative for the last several years. The Twins are in constant need to resupply their pitching staff. They have added pitchers, good pitchers that have been successful, but it seems the better they are, the more likely they are to have an injury very shortly thereafter. 

Kenta Maeda seemed like a diamond in the rough, and then missed the entirety of last season after requiring Tommy John surgery midway through 2021. Chris Paddack was a force this year until he tore his UCL in May. Randy Dobnak has had 2 lost seasons now, while Tyler Mahle essentially imploded from the outset.

And it's not just the major leagues that are fraught with injury. Think of the casualties that would have been in the majors now were it not for injury. Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, and Blayne Enlow have all had issues n their rise to the majors. 

It's not an issue with just the pitchers, either. We saw Nick Gordon play with Billy Hamilton in the Twins outfield, because Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Kyle Garlick were all on the shelf at various points. Any asssessment of the Twins past and present needs to take the overall poor health of the team into consideration. 

So of course, why wouldn't health be a factor, both apparent and behind the scenes, in the biggest offseason story for the Twins and Major League Baseball. Carlos Correa has had a deal scuttled and a deal potetially on the rocks thanks to a failed medical with the Giants and the Mets. the Twins have continued to sniff around at their former shortstop, frustrating fans everywhere in Twins Territory. 

The Twins were in a spot last season where a short term contract with Correa seemed like a good bridge to Royce Lewis or Austin Martin, both of who seemed ready to arrive on the big stage in Minneapolis. Martin flamed out, but Lewis broke into the league and looked every part of the top prospect that was promised. The Astros moved on from Correa to open a spot for Jeremy Pena, and the Twins looked like they would be able to move on with an even better prospect.

And then Royce Lewis tore his ACL, and the calculus all changed. Suddenly, Lewis isn't a sure thing at shortstop anymore. How will his lower body respond to the rigors of short? Without a long term solution at the position, the Twins were suddenly more desiring of a long term free agent at short, and why not Correa, who had left a good impression on the team in his short time here.

But the Twins never intended, originally, for Correa to be the anchor at the position for the franchise. As always, injuries have steered the Twins towards a new goal, and Twins fans to a new disappointment

The Dakotas are off to a rough basketball start

 Maybe I spoke a bit too soon about the state of North Dakota State Bison football, as they are once again preparing to play in the FCS championship game, this time against South Dakota State. That they barely snuck past Incarnate Word in the semifinal is hardly a knock against them. After all, they did win the semifinal, and reached the final. The Bison are fine on the football field.

Now, the basketball team? All that I said was true. This is not a good year for NDSU basketball, who have started 3-11, and have only one win, against Portland, in their D-1 victory ledger. They probably won't make the tournament this season. The Summit League tournament.

It's not just NDSU, but every D-1 school in the Dakotas. In the first round of conference play, the Dakotas were winless. 

North Dakota has had the best season of the 4 schools, with a 6-8 mark, with their best win coming against, I don't know, Elon? Utah Tech? They also had a heavy loss at the hands of Portland, who is so bad they lost to NDSU, so I don't know.

It's going to be uphill for all of those schools in the Dakotas. Denver has looked better than they have for quite some time, and Western Illinois is finally feisty again, but the real threat is Oral Roberts, who still has Max Abmas, the best player the conference has had in a very long time. 

NDSU shook off their football slump this year, and now, the basketball teams in the Dakotas are tasked with proving that this is, at best, a one year hiccup

Twins pivot to Joey Gallo

 The Twins entered the free agent market late, thanks in large part for their misadventures in attempting to play in the top end of the free agent market. They had a lot of money to spend, but didn't put together a contract or sales pitch that was attractive enough to draw anyone to a long term commitment to Minneapolis.

The team did add Christian Vasquez, and given the need and market for catching, it seems as though the Twins wanted Vasquez, targeted him and signed him. He was signed before Carlos Correa left for the Giants, so circumstance also indicates a desire for Vasquez regardless of how other things played out. He fills a need for a veteran presence and a compliment to Ryan Jeffers, who has not yet grabbed the catching position with both hands. 

Free agency seemed to have passed without the Twins spending more than what they committed to Vasquez by the time Correa made his decision. Their Plan's B and C were already gone, and competition was stiff for Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodon. The Twins needed o come up with a new plan, or at the very least, execute Plan F. 

Since Correa signed, the Twins have made one move, among rumors of others. Minnesota added left handed outfielder Joey Gallo, who possesses monumental power - I still remember him putting a ball through the windshield of a promotional Dodge Ram at the All Star Futures game - also provides some of the same strike out frustrations as soon to be former Twin Miguel Sano. Gallo, however, has a bit more positional flexibility, even playing center field in Texas, New York and Los Angeles at times along the way. He's no Byron Buxton, but also, he's no Gilberto Celestino.

It's also a further indication that there will likely be trades out of the existing outfield depth. The Twins have valuable trade chips, and a left handed redundancy with Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff, and now Joey Gallo all hitting on the left side of the plate. Adding Gallo lessens further the need for one of those players. The most desirable to be moved is Kepler from the Twins perspective, but Larnach or Kirilloff might bring back a better return. With little left on the free agent market, it seems like trading from this resource will lead to the heft of the pitching or infield upgrades they make.

The Twins needed to start enacting a new plan to field a competitive team in 2023. They certainly haven't executed it yet, but the move for Gallo certainly sheds some light on the direction it might take. 

Adding pitching is hard!

 

Here we are, two days into the Winter Meetings, and Twins fans are on the cusp of a meltdown. Trea Turner signed below expectations, while Justin Verlander and Jacob DeGrom were signed to big deals elsewhere. In the eyes of the typically panic stricken Twins fan, this means, for some reason, that the Twins are going to be left out in the cold this offseason.

There are a couple of reasons for that, I guess. Perennially, the Twins fanbase always want the Twins to nab an "ace" which is a nice thought. The Twins fanbase always tabs the top several pitchers as "aces" even if they are not. Verlander and DeGrom, sure, but they were never in the plans for Minnesota. Since he is available, locals have labeled Carlos Rodon as the ace the Twins need. Yikes. 

Rodon has a long track of injuries to go along with recent success, which would make the Twins pause, and his status at the top of many organizational wish lists would make him expensive, even before you look at what has gone on Tuesday evening. Taijuan Walker signed with the Phillies for $72m over 4 years, which is an 18m/yr valuation. That's 6 more than Sonny Gray is making, and I'm not fully convinced that Walker is a more reliable asset, given his history.

So imagine how much Rodon, more well regarded than Walker, is going to command. It's hard to find another pitcher on the market that decidedly makes the Twins rotation better in 2023, aside from Rodon, and I seriously doubt the Twins want to play well above market for something that might not be a lift, anyways. 

Which explains the rumor today that Luis Arraez has been discussed as available in trades for pitchers. This would hurt l
ike crazy, because Arraez is a popular figure in the clubhouse and in the region, but also because Arraez would only be a small portion of a trade to get a better starter. The Twins would have to trade a popular player, AND send another prospect in order to get a pitcher that would move the needle.

The market is foreboding, and the Twins don't have any really good options from which to generate a trade. This is apparent, but I bet there are going to be a lot of upset fans if an addition isn't made!

At last, the Winter Meetings are back

What cold, dark winters these past two have been. There was the pandemic, of course, and then the lockout, both of which truncated the offseason, and terminated the Winter Meetings as we knew them. Executives and agents are arriving this weekend in San Diego to start the 2022 edition of the meetings, which will continue through mid-week.

There will be all sorts of meetings to go over rules and objectives for the league during the day, but between the bigger events and panels, the real action happens. These team leaders and player agents will have a chance to connect in person, in real time, and it is here that the offseason really gets underway. 

Without the ability to meet in person 2 years ago, or the restriction on the business that could actually be done last year, the 2022 edition should bring back what everyone loves about the Meetings. Between the larger meetings, people will meet in hallways and hotel rooms. An affair that already kept odd hours, transactions may spill even later in to the night, at least on central time. 

While the transaction wire is heating up, and a three day marathon refreshing MLBTradeRumors at all hours is an exciting thing to look forward to, the Twins have a long history of making a lot of noise, but not having a lot of action at the winter meetings. I wouldn't be surprised if that is how these meetings go either, even with the expectation that the Twins will be active this winter.

Minnesota is likely to throw a lot of money around in free agency. They have the capability, but have also shown a reluctance to get into bidding wars. Surely, they are willing to spend money, as Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa have proven, but they are loathe to get into bidding wars. If there is a price, they will pay it. They haven't followed the market upward very often, however. Maybe they sign Correa again in San Diego, but barring that, I would be surprised if free agency doesn't get started until January for the Twins. 

Similarly, I'm not sure what the big trade the Twins might be looking to make would be. Sure, they could get better in the rotation, but that isn't going to fall into their lap, and they have little in the way of tradeable capital for a team looking to rebuild. Maybe they could get something together later in the offseason after smaller moves are made to accrue some prospect depth.

Even if the Twins aren't active, aside from the Rule 5 draft, perhaps, it's nice to have an old staple of the offseason back. Get ready for a non stop barrage of baseball headlines for the next week.