Missing the forest for the trees

Aside from my fandom, Purdue basketball and the Minnesota Twins have something in common: winning in the regular season, failure in the post season. It's a tough way to go through life, undoubtedly. Other fans of both teams are justifiably frustrated and losing patience. Factions of both squads are calling for changes to the coaching staffs.

For different reasons for both team, those are reactionary positions, and don't really represent solutions that would solve problems. In Purdue's case, in particular, it would certainly hurt more than it helps, the firing of long time head coach Matt Painter. Painter took over for venerated coach Gene Keady, who lead the Boilermakers through the 80s, 90s and into the early 2000s. Under his direction, the Boilers made the tournament 18 times, without a single Final Four appearance.

The criticism of Painter is that he is likewise unable to reach the Final Four. Sure, he makes it to the Big Dance on an almost annual basis, but he's only reached one Elite 8, and the Sweet 16 on 7 occasions. Keady, for what it's worth, reached the sweet 16 5 times in his venerable career, which was 25 years in West Lafayette. 

Keady was a technician who excelled at getting the most out of the players he had. Painter, on the other hand is an excellent recruiter. Part of the criticism of Painter is that he hasn't gotten the best out of his exemplary recruiting classes. While fair, I would also argue that it takes a special coach to get such persistently talented classes to come to a school that hasn't been to the Final Four in 42 years, is located adjacent to some Indiana cornfields and doesn't have an extensive track record of NBA talent. If there was a way to combine Keady's technical prowess and Painter's eye for talent, you would really be on to something, but it's pretty special that Purdue was able to hit on one or the other in back to back coaching hires.

Put another way, who are you hiring to replace Painter? What would they bring to the table? A different voice? College classes turn over every 4 years, at most. That the Boilermakers are in the discussion year over year is a credit to what Painter has built at Purdue.

The Twins sit in first place, have acquired and developed talent in a cost effective manner, and have a pipeline of pitching prospects that were promised when the current leadership was hired. I know that I have wondered just what the heck the Twins were doing at certain points, with Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, this offseason, but it's hard to argue with results. 

The Twins are famously amid a historic postseason losing streak, but this is the third front office and third manager to helm the team through this drought. It's not entirely on them, and contrary to previous administrations, they've been aggressive on the trade and free agent market, willing to trade away prospects and spend money where it suited the team. 

It's been working, and it's worked so far this year. Why would you want to change direction now, when the Twins so recently made a hard change shortly before a pandemic interrupted everything, and success is being realized? Because Tyler Duffey had a couple of bad outings? This was the direction so many fans clamored for when Terry Ryan was in charge. We have it. Did you want to go back?

Matt Painter's process warrants a much longer career, and Derek Falvey and Thad Levine's results likewise do the same. 

Room to try things

 

The Twins are approaching "comfortable" distance between themselves and the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central standings. They just came from behind and beat the Royals to finish a sweep and earn their 4th victory in a row. Despite a raft of injuries, and some creative work filling out their rotation, things are going well.

Of course, that doesn't assuage the most negative fans in Twins Territory. Royce Lewis is playing for the Saints, despite a strong start to his Major League career, and fans are upset. It totally understand the frustration. Lewis' first 11 games were dynamic displays of his ability, despite having missed a couple of seasons to injury and pandemic. He is the future of the team, and is already better than some of the players that are continuing to occupy roster spots with the Twins. 

One thing about the current run of good results the Twins are on is that their May schedule is quite soft. They are just finishing a road trip that took them to Kansas City and Oakland, and in fact, are playing either the Royals or Tigers until June 2nd. To put it more bluntly, the Twins aren't going to necessarily be greatly improved by Lewis's presence, not so much that it will win them many extra games. 

On the other hand, the two players he would probably displace, Gio Urshela or Nick Gordon, are out of options. Given the injury record already with this team, and a forward looking outlook on the nature of baseball, it seems foolish to lose one of those players for nothing, when they aren't in dire need of an extra bump.

To that end, it makes some sense to keep Lewis in St. Paul. He isn't at risk of going anywhere else when his options are used. It's less about sending him to the Saints than it is to keep Gordon and Urshela in the fold for the long run.

Now, why was Lewis sent to St. Paul instead of Jose Miranda? That's a mystery I can't quite wrap my head around.

The narrative has changed

The Twins are hitting at a torrid pace right now, and are able to pair it with some solid pitching in order to be the second hottest team in baseball. Not bad, and certainly not something we are used to seeing around here. Good hitting and good pitching?! At the same time? Wild. Never mind that the hottest team is their perennial nemesis the New York Yankees. 

Before this season started, there were questions about the rotation. Many, many questions. They were too young, to patchwork to be successful, and playoff odds didn't look terribly favorable thanks to the low regard for the arms on the staff. Then, they came out and dominated the first couple weeks of the year, even as the offense was limp. 

The past few weeks have been revelatory. After the sluggish offensive start, the promised offensive surge has arrived. Carlos Correa is hitting. Max Kepler is hitting. Trevor Larnach is hitting. Byron Buxton never stopped hitting. And the starting pitchers never stopped pitching.

Now, a month into the season, it seems more likely that the Twins have something with their pitching staff, rather than it being a fluke (Dylan Bundy's recent appearances aside). Now that he offense has started to play at a pace that many people expected them to, everyone has started to see what a formidable threat the Minnesota Twins are this season. 

It's not just fans and pundits that have reevaluated their perception of the Twins this season. There is something deeper there that has given the sterile circuitry in the Baseball Reference computers a new perspective as well. No team has seen their playoff odds rise as much as the Twins in the past week, It's up 20% in the last 7 days, and up over 25% in the last 8. 

Undoubtedly, the extended slow start of White Sox helps, but more importantly for those computers is that the rotation has sustained success. The offense was always coming, but that pitching is here has changed the narrative. 

At the beginning of the season, the Twins were a mystery. After a month of play, expectations have been elevated. If they continue to execute, the Twins are a playoff team. Fans, writers and even the metrics are becoming increasingly convinced of that.