Tuesday, July 11, 2023

What's riding on the 2nd half?


 

The Minnesota Twins are a half game out of first place, and were widely expected to finish second or third in the division this year. Cleveland and Chicago have played a role in this surprise contention, but generally, being in a better spot than anticipated should lead to better vibes than the Twins have going on. There is a long sordid history of Twins postseason ineptitude that I need not get into right now, and the combination of history, expectations and the comical hamhandedness of the rest of the division is leading to a lot of confused anger. 

Just getting into the playoffs isn't going to cut it anymore. The Twins haven't won a postseason game in nearly 20 years, or a series in over 20 years. Stumbling through a season to enter the postseason ass first is not an altogether reassuring prospect for this particular organization. The fan base is looking for targets to blame, and there is plenty to go around, even if some of it is misguided. 

There is a lot of vitriol directed at the front office. You get there when a team comes out flat a few years in a row, but I am not going to pin the blame there. While mediocre, the Twins of the Falvey tenure have been better than they were for the 6 years before they were around. They were tasked when they arrived with developing the pitching staff, and they have what is probably the best rotation in the game right now, and against all odds, a bullpen that is in the upper half. They've spent good money, and at the time of the deals they have made, were viewed as the winner of almost all of the moves.

Essentially, the front office has done everything you want them. They brought the organization to the modern age after living in the 90s through most of the 2010s, they fleshed out their rotation and they have been aggressive in free agency. They aren't fools, just unlucky, and I think that they aren't to blame.

In that same thread, the moribund offense has been the problem, and while a lot of people have pointed at the signing of Joey Gallo as an issue, I don't think it is. If you sign Joey Gallo, the season he is putting together is exactly what you signed up for. He has the highest on base percentage of any of the double digit home run hitters, despite a low average, and has the 2nd highest OPS of the top 9 Twins in at bats behind Donovan Solano. Gallo strikes out a lot, but he's not the problem.

The most emblematic issue of the Twins season right now is Carlos Correa. He's not earning his contract thus far. He's been a below average player this season. Not just sub standard for his standards, but by major league baseball. Byron Buxton, the other bigger contract in the organization, has also been a disappointment. Without his defense, the pedestrian numbers at the plate stand out a little bit more. Buxton is not producing enough to be a good DH.

Both Buxton and Correa have a coupe of things in common. First, they are hurt. Their performance is likely diminished by back spasms and plantar fasciitis. 2) They are franchise cornerstones. Neither player can be moved, and neither are pulling their weight. A trip to the IL seems like it might be a way to get some of those players mashing in St. Paul an opportunity. It can't be much worse. 

The front office isn't likely to go anywhere, and the players that are the biggest problems are the players that are the least likely to be moved. Improvement is going to have to come internally, and if it doesn't, it' hard to argue against coaching changes. David Popkins would be the most likely to go, but if the season fails to launch, Rocco Baldelli should probably be concerned for his job. Managers aren't as impactful as a lot of people think, and one thing that they do offer is themselves in sacrifice for bad runs of form. 

A playoff appearance is at stake with the final months of the season, but so too is Rocco Baldelli's job if things continue the way they've gone.

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