Thursday, June 22, 2023

There is no solution



It's another frustrating season for Twins fans. They started off well, and have proceeded to get worse as the season has dragged on. The summer warm up has not led to an offensive renaissance, and in fact have seen the offensive struggles balloon. Most of Twins Twitter is demanding some sort of change, lamenting the changes that were made in the last year or so and simply calling into question the organization.

The last couple of weeks in particular have been hard to watch. The offense has flailed, the bullpen is showing wear, and the rotation has simply been unable to keep the blistering pace they had early in the season. In past years, the solution out of the team hole was always apparent. Get more pitching.

Now the Twins have pitching, featuring one of the best rotations in baseball, even if they have been a bit over their own heads to this point. The problem is an offense that doesn't score enough to forgive the prodigious amount of strikeouts. The team often looks listless at the plate, and again are finding ways to fall on their face during important moments. 

The roster hasn't had the same injury issues that it did in recent years. The gravest underperformers are relatively healthy players that are not easily replaced. Meanwhile, people you might expect to be to blame are buoying the team. Willi Castro is the most productive Twin by WAR. Joey Gallo has a 110 OPS+, meaning that his productivity is 10% better than league average, despite a sub 200 average and so many strikeouts. 

Players with new contracts, Christian Vazquez and Carlos Correa are having bad starts to the year, though Correa has finally had a bit of life in his bat in patches. Players expected to be building blocks for the future, like Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach haven't been good enough to maintain their spots on the roster, and certainly aren't at the level of what a team would hope for from a corner fielder. 

The offense needs a jump start. We can complain about the bullpen all we want, but a strong bullpen is a luxury that matters only to the very good teams. The Twins aren't very good. But what do you fix on this Twins team that hasn't already been addressed? Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff are getting regular playing time. You can't well take Correa out of the lineup. Really, the only player still getting regular reps that shouldn't be is Max Kepler. If he is dropped, Larnach probably gets the next shot, though Matt Wallner can't be kept at bay much longer.

Even then, the most important thing that needs to happen is that the guys on the roster start getting better results. Players perform to the capabilities we know and expect, and the Twins are suddenly running away with the division. This is the third year in a row that this hasn't been happening, though, and one has to wonder if there is a systemic problem.

The Twins under Rocco Baldelli were at their best when Derek Shelton was the bench coach, James Rowson was the hitting coach and Wes Johnson was the pitching coach. Johnson leaving in the middle of last season was immediately felt, but not having Shelton or Rowson has been a slower burn. The coaching staff now is largely unproven even after a couple of years on the job.

Like I said, though, losing Johnson mid season was only a negative last year, and changing the coaching staff mid stride on a baseball team isn't a great way to improve morale or results. If the Twins can't shake off these doldrums, much like the last two seasons, it will be time to remake Baldelli's bench, up to, and perhaps including Baldelli himself.

But that isn't something to be done now. Right now, there are no fixes, so expect fans to keep getting upset about hypotheticals and living in the past. 

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