What to expect when you're expecting (a team to be sold)

The biggest news of the Twins’ offseason, regardless of who gets signed or traded, will be that the Pohlads have placed the team up for sale. After initial speculation about local buyers, the biggest name to emerge is that of the Ishbia Brothers, best known as the owners of the Phoenix Suns. Mat Ishbia even played basketball at Michigan State, so wouldn’t that be fun? The basketball guys owning the Twins, while Alex Rodriguez owns the Timberwolves?

One thing many have noted is that when the Ishbias bought the Suns, they almost immediately acquired Kevin Durant, one of the top players in all of basketball. Could you imagine a world where the Twins became players at the top of the market? Fans are abuzz, but I’m skeptical. While the Pohlads have been misanthropic and tight-fisted, there are deeper issues within the Twins organization. They have a bad TV deal that’s unlikely to be resolved, they play in a relatively small market, and they play in an outdoor stadium in the northern U.S.

The Twins haven’t been willing to shell out for players, but even with new ownership, how much would change? How much will the Ishbias—or whoever buys the team—be willing to spend before expecting a serious return on their investment? How long will they pay for top talent with limited media and season ticket revenue? Will they stomach the “cold tax,” the premium needed to attract players who might otherwise avoid Minnesota?

It’s difficult to speculate on something that hasn’t happened—or at least, it’s unwise to do so—but this news could have implications for the upcoming offseason. If the sale might take the team off the Pohlads’ hands within, say, a year, could the current owners be less inclined to scrimp this season? After all, payroll costs would be nearly immediately recouped in the sale, and the Pohlads might take one final tepid shot at competitiveness. On the other hand, if the sale is imminent, a new ownership group might balk at an effort to slash payroll before they take over. After all, it’s not what they paid for.

It’s been pretty hopeless in Twins Territory since the trade deadline, but it seems that gloom may finally be starting to lift. Hope is back.

The Twins came away from Dallas with two players

 It may come as a shock to you. I know it did for me, but the Twins have actually shown a bit of a pulse this week. No, no, it hasn't been anything wild, but the team did add former Major Leaguer Huascar Ynoa to a minor league deal, and they selected Eiberson Caballero during the rule 5 draft. Better than nothing! And more than likely, better than anything from last year!

I think it should be noted that both players are pitchers. Ynoa is a former starter, who the Twins traded to Atlanta originally for Jaime Garcia (who was traded less than a week later, to the Yankees). Ynoa was a starter, who is now only 26, but has contended with elbow and shoulder injuries. If he is back and healthy, he seems a perfect candidate to get moved to the bullpen. 

Caballero is already in the bullpen, as the rules of the Rule 5 draft require players stay on the Major League roster, or be returned to the original club. Caballero has not yet appeared in a game above AA, and has not worked out of the 'pen. Caballero is a strike out machine, and a classic example of a player whose stuff may play up in shorter appearances.

Last year, amid uncertainty, the Twins were dormant in the offseason until quite later in the winter. That they have already made some moves, and that both players add to the bullpen depth invites some early speculation. This is the internet, so heck yeah, let's speculate.

There are two larger moves that moves to backfill the bullpen could hint at. The first is a large trade. Devin Williams was just traded from the Brewers to the Yankees for a package that includes a mid rotation starter in Nestor Cortes and a potential starter, or perhaps a platoon starter at third base in Caleb Durbin. Now imagine what Jhoan Duran and his multiple years of team control would collect on the market? Surely both talent, and perhaps the ability to offload one of the contracts that seems to be on the chopping block.

But maybe the larger move that could be coming isn't as dramatic as a blockbuster trade. There have been rumblings that, after a fantastic season in 2024, Griffin Jax may be interested in a return to starting. That could provide an inexpensive route to backfilling, say, a Chris Paddack trade, but would also open the hole in the bullpen that these new faces might help to fill.

These are minor moves, to be sure, but they are moves. Last offseason, the team didn't do a thing until very late. Having anything happen is fun. This is fun.

The Twins aren't built for the Winter Meetings

 I used to joke that the Twins were regularly inactive at the annual Winter Meetings because Terry Ryan stuck to his early bed time, and all the action happened in the wee hours. While that may have been true, the fact is, the Twins have a new front office, and have for some time, and they are still mostly dormant in December. Or so it seems.

Historically, Derek Falvey is on record talking about laying the ground work in the spring for all manner of big moves, and sometimes, they come to fruition after the calendar changes. I have no doubt that is true, and this season it is even more apparent. The Minnesota Twins, and especially the 24-25 Twins, are not built for busy times at the Winter Meetings.

The big moves so far have been on the free agency market, which the Twins won't participate in unless they see their payroll brought down initially. Additionally, teams looking to offload top talent or seriously trim payroll, like the Cleveland Guardians, apparently, might be active. Headlines are made at the Winter Meetings.

But there are only so many spots for the best players, only so many matches for the teams looking to make the big moves. Knowing that they won't move at the top of the market, the Twins are often content to wait in the league and pounce when competition is less, or prices are more favorable. It's been effective, and the Twins aren't missing on any players they had a realistic shot at.

Even more so this year, the Twins are looking to shed about 15 million in salary, if reports are to be believed. After the Guardians' trade of Andres Gimenez tonight, the Twins sit comfortably atop the AL Central in terms of payroll size, and would still be there if they retreat back to that mythical $130m level. All of this, plus the hope that the team could be sold sooner rather than later suggests the team is hoping to remain competitive.

No major pieces are being sold. No major pieces are being added. This is not a team to watch at the winter meetings in the most interesting of years, an this is hardly that.  

But hey, they did sign Huascar Ynoa to a Minor League deal, so I guess that's something.

The Jorge Lopez trade doesn't get enough credit for how bad it was

When people look back at the 2022 trade deadline, the Tyler Mahle trade is often lamented because of the players that the Twins gave up in that deal. Spencer Steer is a legitimate major league player, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand looks well on his way. You can certainly be frustrated that Mahle didn't work out with the Twins, it's hard for me to get mad the players the Twins gave away. 

Steer and Encarnacion-Strand were expendable because they were redundant. If not in the Mahle trade, Steer was probably always going to be traded, given the wealth of similar talent in the organization. The Twins liked Mahle, and it stunk that he got hurt, but Steer was always getting traded. His value to the Twins was not the same as it would be for the Reds.

On the other hand, the Lopez trade. The Twins were looking to flesh out their bullpen for a postseason run, so they sent a few prospects to Baltimore to get their all star closer. As you may recall, Lopez immediately cratered in Minnesota. What you may not recall is that one of the players dealt to Baltimore, Yennier Cano, was an all star in the exact same role the Twins wanted Lopez to pitch in, the very next year. 

The Twins would have been better off keeping Cano than Lopez, two pitchers in the same role, as soon as a few months later. The Twins had to give up on Lopez before the end of the year. This was a bad swap. 

But wait, there's more. 

The Twins also traded Cade Povich to the Orioles. Baltimore used Povich to start 16 games this season. He wasn't spectacular, but don't you think the Twins could have used another depth starter this year? He wasn't great, but he did the job and will only get better.

So the Twins gave up Cano and Povich, on top of two other prospects, for about a year of miserable service from Jorge Lopez. They swapped Cano for a lesser talent at the same position, and gave up Povich, who would have been useful even this season. At least Steer and Encarnacion-Strand were extraneous. The Lopez deal actively made the Twins worse. 

Thanksgiving Twins minefields

 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. As you read this, you will probably be getting ready to go out for a festive Thanksgiving get together. I hope so. I hope this hasn't found you too late. 

Thanksgiving is always the first major holiday after an election, and as such, is often a minefield when dealing with family who are a little too open with their beliefs with the harbor family can bring, but at the same time, maybe spoiling for conflict. Many people opt to talk about sports when in a pickle like this. Why do you think they play football on Thanksgiving, anyway?

But if football is not your thing, you may be tempted to turn to the Twins. This is a thorny spot as well, especially given the last 12 months or so of Twins headlines. If you absolutely must talk Twins, be sure to steer the talk away from these topics.

Payroll - This has always been a touchy spot for a Twins fanbase that has been groomed to accept a low payroll. Big market teams are bad for spending money, but players taking a big pay day are the worst! We all know this is true, but uncle Randy probably doesn't share this opinion. Randy still holds grudges against Joe Mauer. Besides, railing against the billionaire owners, or talk about income inequality skirts the line with politics a little too closely.

Ownership - You aren't buying the team, are you? And sure, the Pohlads are selling, but it will take some time, and right now, one of the most talked about names is Glen Taylor. I would rather not think about the Timberwolves or Alex Rodriguez right now. 

Injuries - Randy again will chime in about how soft today's players are. Back in his day, a pitcher would go 9 innings every time out, and wouldn't even lose any speed off his 78mph heater. They pitched until their arm fell off, usually around age 28, and then became a disillusioned appliance salesman. Like a real man! And then Randy will go take a nap after eating a third piece of pie. Like a real man. 

Prospects - Unless you are talking to someone you know to be deeply into baseball, you never know what you are going to get with prospect talk. The worst about this are the people who don't view prospects as real people, and treat every MLB player as though they should emerge on the field as a fully realized all star. They will not be able to relate to you about Do-Young Park's article on Travis Adams. Travis Adams went on a journey, both physically and spiritually, but he isn't an Ace yet. 

Target Field - Nothing wrong with the stadium at all, but going down this path might lead to planning to go to a game together. If you think Randy is rough over the holidays, imagine him 2 9 dollar beers in and screaming at Matt Wallner to dive for literally every ball hit in the outfield that finds grass. 

Ha, yeah, that didn't make sense

 Derek Falvey came out today to say, haha, no, the Twins won't be dealing away Carlos Correa. Nor will they be looking to trade Pablo Lopez or Byron Buxton, for that matter. Some New York area newspapers were speculating on the Yankees or Mets looking at trying to acquire Correa from the cash strapped Twins.

They do this all the time, of course. Big market teams believe they are entitled to the best players in smaller markets, but the Twins are still in a competitive mode, so why would anyone begin to think that they three most important, core players of the team would even be on the market?

I mean, aside from the fact that the Twins dropped their salary by $30m last year and already stated they won't be increasing the salary this year. It so happens they are at about the same level already right now. 

And sure, the Pohlads are notorious for their frugality, their cynical dedication to making a profit over any other goal. They are selling the team, and have no vested interest in the future of the squad. A sale won't be completed, certainly, until next season. This is going to be one last grab at either cash or wins, and they've never really cared about wins.

But it's a total fabrication  that Carlos Correa is on the market, just because Joel Sherman threwe it out there. 

But who said anything about Lopez or Buxton, Derek? 

ALL HAIL ZOLL

 The Twins have had a couple of bits of significant news filter out today. The first is that Dave St. Peter, longtime president of the business side of the Twins organization, is stepping aside after over 20 years in the role/ Derek Falvey's portfolio will expand to include this role as well as the president of Baseball Operations title that he's always had.

In more baseball focused news, the Twins also promoted Jeremy Zoll to the role of General Manager. While you try not to get a complex about the fact that he was born in 1990, and what exactly have you been doing with your life, he is a veteran of the organization, starting as the farm director in 2018, and has been involved in trade negotiations, such as the Sonny Gray success, and the Jorge Polanco extremely mixed bag. 

Zoll has a history in player development, but not really in scouting, to go along with that bit of history with trade negotiations. If I were to read into the immediate future, based on this history, the Twins are expecting to base their success on building from within, rather than via players outside of the organization, but that isn't exactly news at this stage, is it?

The other shoe that dropped was St. Peter stepping aside. He's only 57, so this wasn't a retirement. If I had to guess, it has to do with his long time employers stepping away from the team he has worked for for so long, and seeing now as a perfect time to explore something else, or perhaps to continue his work with the Pohlads in a different venture. 

That it is happening now for one of two reasons. One, the Twins went to the General Manager meetings without a general manager, and were embarrassed, or two, St. Peter wants to start the countdown. I wonder then if that means the Pohlads are making progress on a sale. There were some rumors that Glen Taylor might be a suitor, and maybe, just to pull at every string, this might be related to the ongoing arbitration over the sale of the Timberwolves. 

Regardless of what falls out of this, the first major shoe has dropped in the Twins offseason that will have many such instances. Zoll is the GM now. All hail Zoll.