Thursday, August 7, 2025

It's not as bad as it seems.

 We were all shocked, gutted, in some cases, by the deadline teardown of the Minnesota Twins. As I stated before, none of the trades really struck me as awful, but in conjunction with one another, they were a gut punch. I've seen multiple pieces talking about the Twins' deadline, and all of them have a different move (or lack of a move, in Joe Ryan's case) marked as the biggest surprise. I don't like it, but I'm coming to accept it, using a principal that I've had to embrace with the world in general. Find out more information, rather than the worst negative headlines, and maybe it won't seem so bad.

The first part is admitting that it was bad. There was the true salary dump of Carlos Correa, which will raise questions about the Twins willingness to honor long term contracts going forward. The trade of Louis Varland just hurt, because he was a hometown kid that didn't truly need to be traded for financial reasons.

Looking at the chronology of the last few days before the deadline, and the assets that were left by August 1st, I feel better about where the team is heading, however, even with those particularly painful moves.

The team needed to come out swinging after the All Star Break in order to remain in contention, and perhaps even get the team to add to the roster rather than strip it down for parts. This was a failure of culture, as much as it was an insufficient roster. Not being able to compete with the Rockies and Nationals out of the break is not a good look for Rocco Baldelli, as everyone on Twins Daily will tell you. But it also shows that Carlos Correa's veteran leadership may have lost some of it's sway.

Jhoan Duran netted two top 100 prospects, and, they were off to the races. The next several trades involved pending free agents, which made sense. After Duran was traded, the known price for bullpen arms was high, and Brock Stewart was dealt for a Major League outfielder. After this, Correa, who had been in extensive discussions with Derek Falvey about the direction of the team, signed off on a trade back to the Astros.

Correa had a conversation with Griffin Jax, who, upon learning of the sell off and the pending departure of Correa himself, requested a trade that doesn't sound like it would have come otherwise. By that point, the only trade left was the one for Ty France and Louis Varland, which is only made if the Twins really like the return. Allen Roden is not far removed from being a top prospect, and Kendry Rojas is now a top 10 prospect in the Twins system, and the top left handed starter in the system.

In the wake of everything, then, ask yourself this. How much worse are the Twins in 2026 than they were on July 29th? The bullpen is obviously less than it was. The lineup has one major subtraction, in Carlos Correa at short, but it has been otherwise unchanged. The rotation subtracts Chris Paddack (who was walking after this year anyways) but returns the top three arms of Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. They can now select from Simeon Woods-Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley at the back of the rotation. I would venture to say that the rotation, as of right now, looks better for next season than it would have otherwise. Abel and Bradley, don't forget, were added when relievers (albeit good ones) were traded away.

The obvious flaw with the team this year was the offense. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise that the Twins added major league ready outfielders that are highlighted for their hitting ability. Roden is already here, and James Outman is a former Rookie of the Year candidate. It wouldn't be much of a stretch to anticipate Brooks Lee replacing Carlos Correa (at least this year's version of Correa) and suddenly, the offense isn't terribly handicapped either, compared to the 2025 version. It might even be deeper.

There is obvious, well founded consternation about the team's intent for the offseason. There have been reports out there that in the Correa trade, the Twins had asked about Christian Walker, who would have vastly improved the first base prospects. Any discussions for Joe Ryan included the Twins asking for Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu, who would have become one of the best hitters in the Twins lineup. They were looking to sell, they did sell, but they weren't looking to tear it down completely.

Headed into 2026, the team is going to be looking ahead with a new ownership group. I don't necessarily think the Twins are suddenly going to have an enormous payroll, but the new group will have more room to work with. Heck, the Pohlads will have room to work with. Bullpen arms come cheap on the free agency market, and former starting prospects make good relievers too (see: Glenn Perkins, Trevor May, LaTroy Hawkins, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland). The Twins have built bullpens before, and will do so again. 

And maybe they will trade a starter, if they get the right price. I imagine that price will involve a young, controllable hitter to buoy the lineup. I believe that this front office believes these Twins can compete in 2026, and their sell off didn't seriously impinge on that, and in some ways, it helped. 

It sure sucked getting there, though. 

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